Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Wright St. 45.0%   14   16 - 4 8 - 1 23 - 6 15 - 3 +4.6      +2.9 91 +1.6 125 74.9 53 +4.4 108 +6.7 1
126 Northern Kentucky 30.1%   12 - 7 6 - 3 19 - 9 13 - 5 +2.4      +1.5 134 +0.9 139 64.5 300 +2.0 136 0.0 2
206 Illinois-Chicago 6.5%   8 - 13 4 - 5 13 - 17 9 - 9 -2.8      -2.6 249 -0.2 168 70.7 136 -4.9 242 -4.7 7
218 Green Bay 5.9%   8 - 12 5 - 4 13 - 16 10 - 8 -3.4      +3.0 89 -6.4 333 81.2 14 -3.5 221 -3.1 5
234 Youngstown St. 4.3%   10 - 10 5 - 4 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      -0.4 187 -3.8 284 67.4 236 -3.0 216 -2.4 4
249 Oakland 1.6%   6 - 15 2 - 7 10 - 20 6 - 12 -5.0      -3.4 275 -1.6 216 64.8 292 -6.7 272 -11.3 10
257 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.0%   8 - 11 5 - 4 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5.4      -3.9 284 -1.5 214 71.1 124 -5.2 248 -2.0 3
269 Detroit Mercy 2.7%   6 - 16 4 - 5 10 - 21 8 - 10 -5.8      -1.1 209 -4.7 308 71.0 128 -7.0 279 -4.3 6
306 Cleveland St. 0.7%   7 - 14 4 - 5 10 - 20 7 - 11 -8.6      -6.2 327 -2.4 237 69.4 171 -5.6 258 -5.5 8
317 IUPUI 0.2%   4 - 16 2 - 7 7 - 22 5 - 13 -9.5      -2.7 252 -6.8 336 73.1 84 -10.8 321 -10.7 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wright St. 1.1 92.4 7.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Kentucky 2.0 18.0 68.3 9.7 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 4.7 0.2 5.3 22.0 22.3 19.2 14.7 10.0 4.5 1.8 0.2
Green Bay 4.3 0.8 9.8 28.4 22.4 16.6 10.7 7.1 3.1 0.9 0.2
Youngstown St. 4.4 0.6 8.9 26.9 21.9 17.2 11.8 7.6 3.6 1.3 0.2
Oakland 7.9 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.8 9.0 14.8 24.1 28.9 14.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.8 0.4 6.4 21.7 20.5 17.6 14.8 10.8 5.4 2.2 0.2
Detroit Mercy 5.8 0.0 1.9 9.8 14.8 17.4 18.3 19.2 11.3 5.7 1.5
Cleveland St. 7.3 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.0 7.9 11.8 18.7 26.2 20.5 7.0
IUPUI 9.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.7 5.5 12.4 23.8 54.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wright St. 15 - 3 0.1 0.5 2.9 8.7 20.8 29.3 26.4 11.2
Northern Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 0.4 1.5 5.3 14.1 23.6 27.2 20.7 7.1
Illinois-Chicago 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 4.0 11.0 20.5 26.5 22.0 11.8 3.1 0.4
Green Bay 10 - 8 0.3 2.3 7.8 16.0 23.8 23.5 15.9 7.7 2.4 0.5
Youngstown St. 9 - 9 0.4 2.7 8.5 16.9 24.7 22.3 15.4 7.0 1.9 0.3
Oakland 6 - 12 0.6 3.4 10.6 20.7 26.1 21.6 11.7 4.3 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9 - 9 0.7 4.8 12.1 20.6 24.1 19.9 12.1 4.5 1.2 0.1
Detroit Mercy 8 - 10 0.6 3.7 11.1 21.0 25.5 21.5 11.7 4.0 0.9 0.0
Cleveland St. 7 - 11 4.6 16.7 25.4 25.0 16.4 8.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
IUPUI 5 - 13 5.3 16.1 25.3 25.4 17.8 7.3 2.4 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 92.4% 80.9 11.0 0.5 0.1
Northern Kentucky 18.0% 6.9 10.6 0.5 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Green Bay 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Oakland
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
IUPUI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 45.0% 45.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.3 6.7 18.1 15.7 4.1 0.2 55.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 30.1% 30.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 6.3 12.6 8.7 1.2 69.9 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 5.6 93.5 0.0%
Green Bay 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 94.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.0 3.2 95.7 0.0%
Oakland 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 98.4 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.6 97.0 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
IUPUI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Wright St. 45.0% 0.0% 45.0% 7.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 30.1% 0.1% 30.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.5% 4.1% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 5.9% 2.9% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.3% 0.9 6.7 93.3
2nd Round 10.9% 0.1 89.1 10.9
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0