Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 Wright St. 33.6%   14   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 5 +4.2      +3.2 86 +1.0 136 68.8 206 +13.4 34 0.0 1
139 Northern Kentucky 19.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.5      +1.5 132 +0.1 157 69.3 193 +7.1 80 0.0 1
170 Oakland 11.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -0.6      -0.8 202 +0.3 150 67.4 248 +1.4 157 0.0 1
176 Green Bay 10.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -1.0      +1.0 143 -2.0 225 82.1 16 -1.1 201 0.0 1
205 Illinois-Chicago 7.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.7 227 -0.7 181 63.5 323 -7.9 274 0.0 1
223 Detroit Mercy 6.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 9 -3.3      +3.0 92 -6.3 334 71.0 150 +1.0 164 0.0 1
243 Youngstown St. 4.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.3      +0.3 165 -4.6 302 68.2 220 -9.7 292 0.0 1
252 IUPUI 3.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -4.8      -1.7 228 -3.1 270 71.1 147 +4.0 125 0.0 1
260 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -5.1      -3.2 279 -1.9 217 66.0 279 -8.0 275 0.0 1
319 Cleveland St. 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 6 - 24 4 - 14 -10.5      -5.3 315 -5.1 315 72.2 120 -4.9 249 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wright St. 2.3 46.8 21.1 12.2 7.8 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2
Northern Kentucky 3.3 25.1 21.1 16.1 11.9 9.0 6.6 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.7
Oakland 4.2 13.6 16.1 15.5 14.2 12.0 9.8 7.8 5.8 3.6 1.5
Green Bay 4.4 12.3 14.8 14.5 13.8 11.9 10.3 8.8 6.8 4.7 2.1
Illinois-Chicago 5.1 7.7 10.7 12.4 12.9 12.8 12.4 10.9 9.5 7.2 3.6
Detroit Mercy 5.5 6.3 8.7 10.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.1 11.0 9.6 5.7
Youngstown St. 6.0 4.0 6.6 8.7 10.3 11.8 12.9 13.2 13.3 11.9 7.3
IUPUI 6.3 2.9 5.4 7.6 9.7 11.5 12.9 14.0 14.3 13.3 8.4
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.4 3.1 5.2 7.3 9.0 10.9 12.3 13.5 14.6 14.6 9.4
Cleveland St. 8.6 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.4 8.3 13.2 22.4 43.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wright St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.5 6.7 9.0 11.7 13.7 14.5 13.6 10.8 7.0 2.5
Northern Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 6.1 8.3 10.6 12.3 13.2 12.6 10.8 8.3 5.2 2.6 0.6
Oakland 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.9 7.2 9.5 11.2 12.5 12.7 11.8 9.5 7.0 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.2
Green Bay 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.9 7.9 9.9 11.5 12.2 12.0 10.8 8.8 6.2 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.8 8.2 10.0 11.6 12.4 11.8 10.6 8.6 6.2 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
Detroit Mercy 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.3 9.6 10.8 11.6 12.0 10.7 9.1 7.3 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Youngstown St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.8 10.7 12.3 12.2 11.4 10.0 7.9 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
IUPUI 8 - 10 0.1 1.0 2.4 4.7 7.1 9.7 11.9 12.7 12.6 11.2 9.3 6.9 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.2 8.0 10.2 11.8 12.5 11.8 10.6 8.9 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 4 - 14 3.4 8.8 13.7 15.6 15.5 13.4 10.5 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 46.8% 35.4 9.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 25.1% 16.9 6.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oakland 13.6% 8.2 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 12.3% 7.5 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 4.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 6.3% 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Youngstown St. 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.1% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 33.6% 33.1% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.9 8.1 10.0 7.4 3.7 0.9 66.4 0.8%
Northern Kentucky 19.5% 19.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.1 5.0 5.4 3.7 1.3 80.5 0.2%
Oakland 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.3 3.3 1.7 88.3 0.0%
Green Bay 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.1 89.3 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.2 92.4 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 93.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 95.7 0.0%
IUPUI 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 96.5 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 96.7 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Wright St. 33.6% 0.6% 33.4% 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 19.5% 0.5% 19.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 11.7% 0.6% 11.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 10.7% 0.9% 10.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.6% 1.0% 7.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 6.2% 0.8% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 1.1% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 3.5% 0.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.3% 0.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.5 0.5
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0