Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#228
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#245
Pace71.2#129
Improvement+2.8#60

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#273
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows-2.4#328
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#174
First Shot+0.8#132
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#292
Layups/Dunks+0.8#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#105
Freethrows-1.0#251
Improvement+2.7#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.7% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 9.5% 18.5% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 68.0% 37.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.0% 4.0%
First Four2.8% 3.0% 2.6%
First Round3.2% 4.5% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 29   @ Memphis L 46-92 5%     0 - 1 -30.8 -17.3 -12.5
  Nov 13, 2019 101   Ball St. L 48-67 29%     0 - 2 -17.2 -16.5 -2.8
  Nov 16, 2019 96   @ Bradley L 56-65 14%     0 - 3 -1.0 -11.5 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2019 211   Robert Morris W 72-62 58%     1 - 3 +4.1 -2.7 +6.9
  Nov 23, 2019 236   Mercer L 68-72 62%     1 - 4 -11.1 -7.9 -3.2
  Nov 26, 2019 223   Canisius L 64-94 60%     1 - 5 -36.5 -20.7 -11.5
  Dec 01, 2019 183   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-71 28%     1 - 6 +1.1 -3.3 +4.4
  Dec 02, 2019 192   San Diego W 89-83 42%     2 - 6 +4.1 +8.4 -4.9
  Dec 07, 2019 260   Purdue Fort Wayne W 62-49 67%     3 - 6 +4.7 -3.6 +10.7
  Dec 14, 2019 60   @ DePaul L 65-86 9%     3 - 7 -9.7 -8.8 +1.2
  Dec 18, 2019 210   @ Illinois St. L 66-67 36%     3 - 8 -1.2 -6.9 +5.8
  Dec 20, 2019 112   UC Irvine W 76-67 31%     4 - 8 +10.1 +1.6 +8.2
  Dec 28, 2019 313   Cleveland St. W 71-66 78%     5 - 8 1 - 0 -7.1 -0.5 -6.2
  Dec 30, 2019 233   Youngstown St. L 64-70 62%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -12.9 -13.9 +1.0
  Jan 03, 2020 217   @ Green Bay L 71-85 37%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -14.4 -11.0 -2.6
  Jan 05, 2020 246   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 62-64 42%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -3.9 -6.7 +2.6
  Jan 10, 2020 114   Northern Kentucky L 52-68 32%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -15.1 -14.9 -1.8
  Jan 12, 2020 117   Wright St. W 76-72 33%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +4.7 -1.9 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2020 320   @ IUPUI W 75-66 61%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +2.2 -8.3 +9.9
  Jan 23, 2020 208   @ Oakland L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 268   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 30, 2020 233   @ Youngstown St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 313   @ Cleveland St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 06, 2020 246   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2020 217   Green Bay W 81-79 59%    
  Feb 14, 2020 117   @ Wright St. L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 16, 2020 114   @ Northern Kentucky L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 320   IUPUI W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 27, 2020 268   Detroit Mercy W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 208   Oakland W 67-65 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 1.1 5.4 5.3 1.5 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 7.7 7.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 18.2 4th
5th 0.3 5.8 9.5 2.0 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 10.1 2.9 0.1 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.1 4.5 0.2 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.7 0.4 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.7 8.9 16.5 21.6 21.3 15.4 8.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 74.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 25.7% 25.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 2.9% 10.3% 10.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.6
11-7 8.1% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.3
10-8 15.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.1 0.9 14.4
9-9 21.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 20.3
8-10 21.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.8 20.9
7-11 16.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 16.2
6-12 8.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.8
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.8 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%