Oakland
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#204
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#233
Pace64.6#303
Improvement-3.6#316

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#259
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#286
Freethrows+1.8#61
Improvement-0.4#205

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#162
First Shot+1.3#122
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#291
Layups/Dunks+0.9#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#308
Freethrows+1.9#63
Improvement-3.2#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.3% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 13.6% 21.9% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 69.3% 41.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.8% 6.4%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 3.4%
First Round4.8% 6.0% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 83 - 13
Quad 411 - 513 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 199   Delaware L 53-56 49%     0 - 1 -5.4 -20.4 +14.8
  Nov 09, 2019 177   Texas San Antonio W 75-62 41%     1 - 1 +12.4 +2.0 +11.0
  Nov 10, 2019 192   Southern Illinois W 61-52 46%     2 - 1 +7.3 -1.3 +10.0
  Nov 16, 2019 7   @ Maryland L 50-80 3%     2 - 2 -11.0 -10.0 -1.3
  Nov 18, 2019 283   Hartford W 60-50 75%     3 - 2 +0.2 -12.9 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2019 190   @ Northern Illinois L 50-74 34%     3 - 3 -22.5 -16.6 -7.8
  Nov 30, 2019 125   @ Toledo L 63-65 22%     3 - 4 +3.3 +0.6 +2.4
  Dec 03, 2019 240   @ Western Michigan W 72-62 45%     4 - 4 +8.5 +7.7 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2019 153   @ Bowling Green L 65-68 26%     4 - 5 +0.9 -3.1 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2019 4   Michigan St. L 49-72 4%     4 - 6 -5.1 -17.3 +12.5
  Dec 18, 2019 51   @ Syracuse L 62-74 9%     4 - 7 +0.3 -0.7 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2019 249   Fairfield L 59-61 OT 69%     4 - 8 -9.8 -19.4 +9.8
  Dec 28, 2019 270   Detroit Mercy W 78-69 72%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +0.0 -4.0 +3.7
  Jan 03, 2020 114   Wright St. L 69-96 36%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -26.1 -6.2 -18.9
  Jan 05, 2020 119   Northern Kentucky L 64-75 37%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -10.5 -1.5 -10.1
  Jan 09, 2020 237   @ Youngstown St. L 60-61 44%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -2.3 -7.7 +5.2
  Jan 11, 2020 308   @ Cleveland St. W 68-55 63%     6 - 11 2 - 3 +6.7 +0.7 +7.4
  Jan 16, 2020 210   @ Green Bay L 69-73 40%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -4.2 -12.8 +8.9
  Jan 18, 2020 250   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 23, 2020 238   Illinois-Chicago W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 25, 2020 309   IUPUI W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 31, 2020 270   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 06, 2020 119   @ Northern Kentucky L 59-68 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 114   @ Wright St. L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 13, 2020 308   Cleveland St. W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 237   Youngstown St. W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 21, 2020 250   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 23, 2020 210   Green Bay W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 27, 2020 309   @ IUPUI W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 238   @ Illinois-Chicago L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.5 7.2 2.2 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.9 8.6 2.2 0.1 19.6 4th
5th 0.3 5.8 9.0 2.0 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 9.0 2.5 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.9 3.4 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.4 0.3 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.3 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.8 14.1 19.4 20.7 17.4 10.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 74.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 23.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 12.7% 12.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-6 4.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.7
11-7 10.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 9.7
10-8 17.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.2 1.2 16.0
9-9 20.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3 19.4
8-10 19.4% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 1.0 18.4
7-11 14.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 13.6
6-12 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.8
5-13 3.2% 3.2
4-14 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.9 93.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%