Oakland
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#178
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#151
Pace68.0#228
Improvement-0.4#228

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#249
First Shot-0.8#197
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#259
Layup/Dunks+0.5#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#290
Freethrows+3.8#24
Improvement-0.5#251

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#125
First Shot+1.3#127
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#321
Freethrows+4.6#10
Improvement+0.1#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 14.1% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 59.0% 74.2% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.1% 82.7% 72.4%
Conference Champion 12.8% 16.8% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.7% 1.8%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round11.1% 14.0% 9.5%
Second Round0.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 412 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 153   Delaware L 53-56 45%     0 - 1 -2.7 -18.2 +15.4
  Nov 09, 2019 216   Texas San Antonio W 75-62 57%     1 - 1 +10.1 +2.1 +8.5
  Nov 10, 2019 223   Southern Illinois W 61-52 59%     2 - 1 +5.6 -2.7 +9.6
  Nov 16, 2019 7   @ Maryland L 50-80 4%     2 - 2 -10.0 -12.5 +2.1
  Nov 18, 2019 298   Hartford W 60-50 83%     3 - 2 -1.1 -13.5 +12.8
  Nov 25, 2019 160   @ Northern Illinois L 64-68 36%    
  Nov 30, 2019 87   @ Toledo L 64-74 18%    
  Dec 03, 2019 241   @ Western Michigan W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 07, 2019 99   @ Bowling Green L 67-76 22%    
  Dec 14, 2019 1   Michigan St. L 59-81 2%    
  Dec 18, 2019 62   @ Syracuse L 58-71 12%    
  Dec 21, 2019 285   Fairfield W 67-58 79%    
  Dec 28, 2019 284   Detroit Mercy W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 03, 2020 109   Wright St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 05, 2020 126   Northern Kentucky L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 09, 2020 249   @ Youngstown St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 11, 2020 344   @ Cleveland St. W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 16, 2020 179   @ Green Bay L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 18, 2020 248   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 23, 2020 209   Illinois-Chicago W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 265   IUPUI W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 31, 2020 284   @ Detroit Mercy W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 06, 2020 126   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 08, 2020 109   @ Wright St. L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 13, 2020 344   Cleveland St. W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 15, 2020 249   Youngstown St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 21, 2020 248   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 23, 2020 179   Green Bay W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 27, 2020 265   @ IUPUI W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 209   @ Illinois-Chicago L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.7 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.8 5.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 5.4 1.5 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.2 11.6 13.6 13.4 12.3 10.3 7.4 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.0% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 78.0% 3.4    2.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 49.6% 3.7    1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.8% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 4.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.7 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.0% 36.9% 3.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9%
17-1 0.8% 48.5% 48.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.1% 36.5% 36.5% 13.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.3
15-3 4.4% 31.1% 31.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.2%
14-4 7.4% 24.7% 24.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 5.6
13-5 10.3% 17.1% 17.1% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 8.6
12-6 12.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 10.7
11-7 13.4% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 12.1
10-8 13.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 12.6
9-9 11.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.0
8-10 9.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.9
7-11 6.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 3.9 1.9 88.6 0.0%