Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 Akron 33.8%   12   14 - 4 6 - 1 22 - 7 14 - 4 +6.7      +4.9 50 +1.8 120 71.1 123 +8.3 69 +9.2 1
111 Ball St. 17.8%   10 - 8 4 - 2 18 - 12 12 - 6 +4.2      -0.9 199 +5.1 60 69.2 183 +0.7 157 +4.7 4
113 Kent St. 13.5%   12 - 6 4 - 3 19 - 10 11 - 7 +3.7      +2.9 94 +0.8 142 69.4 172 +4.2 110 +1.7 6
121 Toledo 10.3%   10 - 9 3 - 4 17 - 13 10 - 8 +2.9      +3.6 74 -0.7 184 69.0 189 +0.5 161 -0.4 8
135 Buffalo 7.7%   12 - 7 4 - 3 18 - 12 10 - 8 +1.9      +2.0 118 -0.1 165 83.1 7 +2.7 128 +0.9 7
147 Bowling Green 7.8%   13 - 5 6 - 1 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.1      +2.7 101 -1.6 215 73.2 78 +5.1 99 +8.9 2
173 Northern Illinois 3.6%   10 - 9 4 - 3 15 - 15 9 - 9 -0.5      -1.9 231 +1.5 131 65.0 289 -0.5 181 +3.2 5
182 Central Michigan 3.4%   8 - 8 4 - 2 14 - 14 10 - 8 -0.8      +1.1 152 -1.9 225 82.1 12 +1.1 153 +4.8 3
203 Miami (OH) 0.9%   7 - 11 2 - 5 11 - 18 6 - 12 -2.6      +1.9 122 -4.5 303 67.7 233 -3.0 214 -3.9 10
207 Ohio 0.9%   8 - 10 2 - 5 12 - 17 6 - 12 -2.8      +0.6 164 -3.4 269 70.3 146 -2.3 203 -5.5 11
225 Eastern Michigan 0.6%   6 - 10 0 - 7 10 - 17 4 - 14 -3.8      -8.0 340 +4.3 72 68.7 203 -2.1 200 -15.3 12
231 Western Michigan 0.4%   7 - 11 2 - 5 11 - 18 6 - 12 -4.0      -1.4 216 -2.7 249 66.8 248 -2.8 212 -3.3 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Akron 1.4 75.3 15.0 5.3 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 3.0 18.1 33.8 17.8 11.5 7.7 5.0 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
Kent St. 4.1 8.6 16.1 19.6 16.4 13.8 10.3 7.9 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Toledo 5.0 2.9 10.5 15.7 15.4 14.9 13.4 11.1 9.3 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1
Buffalo 5.4 3.2 8.2 11.7 12.7 15.0 14.9 14.2 11.5 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
Bowling Green 3.9 11.4 19.1 18.5 15.3 13.0 9.9 7.4 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.1
Northern Illinois 5.6 1.7 7.4 11.2 13.1 14.6 15.2 14.5 12.2 6.1 2.8 1.0 0.2
Central Michigan 5.4 3.5 8.5 12.3 13.3 14.0 14.3 12.9 10.5 6.6 2.7 1.1 0.3
Miami (OH) 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.9 7.5 13.2 22.7 22.4 19.2 5.4
Ohio 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.4 7.1 11.6 21.2 23.9 22.5 6.9
Eastern Michigan 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.9 12.4 23.3 54.0
Western Michigan 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.6 6.6 11.6 19.5 24.5 19.4 11.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.6 10.4 17.5 23.7 23.1 14.2 4.2
Ball St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.3 12.4 18.3 21.3 19.2 12.8 4.8 1.1
Kent St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.7 14.1 19.7 21.6 18.0 10.2 3.7 0.8
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.8 12.1 18.4 21.3 19.6 11.8 5.3 1.5
Buffalo 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 3.5 8.5 16.1 20.7 19.8 16.1 9.5 3.8 1.0 0.1
Bowling Green 11 - 7 0.3 2.0 6.2 13.7 19.4 21.1 17.5 11.5 6.0 1.9 0.3 0.1
Northern Illinois 9 - 9 0.2 1.2 3.9 10.0 16.1 20.9 20.4 14.4 8.4 3.7 0.7 0.1
Central Michigan 10 - 8 0.2 1.1 4.1 9.5 14.5 19.3 19.2 15.3 9.6 4.8 1.8 0.5 0.1
Miami (OH) 6 - 12 0.7 3.6 10.7 18.8 22.4 20.0 13.8 6.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Ohio 6 - 12 1.0 5.3 12.0 20.8 22.5 18.6 12.0 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 4 - 14 1.6 7.0 14.9 20.7 21.7 17.2 9.9 4.8 1.9 0.4 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 1.6 6.1 13.4 20.0 21.4 17.8 11.5 5.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 75.3% 59.1 12.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 18.1% 8.4 7.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kent St. 8.6% 3.6 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Toledo 2.9% 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 3.2% 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 11.4% 5.5 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 1.7% 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 3.5% 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Ohio 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 33.8% 33.0% 0.8% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 4.1 19.7 7.7 0.6 66.2 1.1%
Ball St. 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 7.2 5.3 1.7 0.1 82.2 0.0%
Kent St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.8 5.9 1.3 0.1 86.5 0.0%
Toledo 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.1 89.7 0.0%
Buffalo 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 3.7 1.4 0.3 92.3 0.0%
Bowling Green 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 4.0 1.1 0.2 92.2 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.5 96.4 0.0%
Central Michigan 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.2 96.6 0.0%
Miami (OH) 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.1 0.0%
Ohio 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.1 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Akron 33.8% 0.7% 33.4% 8.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Ball St. 17.8% 0.0% 17.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 13.5% 0.0% 13.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 10.3% 0.0% 10.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.0 0.5
2nd Round 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0