Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 Toledo 20.0%   12   1 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +5.3      +3.1 88 +2.2 107 69.3 192 +0.8 165 0.0 1
101 Ball St. 17.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +4.6      +1.9 116 +2.7 92 73.5 89 +2.9 135 0.0 1
103 Bowling Green 17.6%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 10 11 - 7 +4.6      +3.4 83 +1.1 132 73.8 83 +4.2 120 0.0 1
120 Kent St. 11.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +2.5      +2.9 94 -0.4 169 68.8 205 +16.0 23 0.0 1
121 Buffalo 10.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.5      +1.9 115 +0.6 144 83.1 11 -16.7 342 0.0 1
127 Central Michigan 9.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.2      +4.9 57 -2.7 255 79.0 28 -10.3 299 0.0 1
141 Akron 7.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 9 +1.5      -2.9 269 +4.4 63 72.9 99 +0.3 176 0.0 1
153 Ohio 5.9%   2 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +0.5      -0.6 196 +1.1 134 72.5 110 +15.2 25 0.0 1
155 Miami (OH) 5.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 +0.2      +1.1 140 -0.9 187 71.9 125 -0.6 186 0.0 1
174 Northern Illinois 3.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.8      -1.0 209 +0.3 149 65.9 281 -6.8 263 0.0 1
222 Eastern Michigan 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 12 -3.3      -3.1 275 -0.2 165 60.3 346 0.0 180 0.0 1
246 Western Michigan 0.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -4.4      -1.0 207 -3.4 284 71.4 137 +6.3 98 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Toledo 3.8 25.3 17.1 13.3 10.7 8.7 7.0 5.8 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7
Ball St. 4.2 20.7 15.9 13.0 11.4 9.6 7.8 6.5 5.2 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.0
Bowling Green 4.5 19.0 14.5 12.4 10.8 9.4 8.2 7.2 6.0 4.9 3.7 2.5 1.3
Kent St. 5.5 12.2 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.4 8.0 7.1 6.2 4.8 3.2
Buffalo 5.6 11.1 10.7 10.4 9.8 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.0 7.5 6.6 5.1 3.0
Central Michigan 5.4 12.1 11.1 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.3 8.6 7.8 6.7 5.6 4.6 3.1
Akron 5.8 9.0 9.4 10.2 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 8.4 7.8 6.8 5.6 3.8
Ohio 6.4 6.3 7.8 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.4 9.6 9.2 8.2 7.5 5.5
Miami (OH) 6.9 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.3 8.9 6.0
Northern Illinois 7.3 3.4 4.8 6.2 7.4 8.4 9.2 10.1 10.7 11.2 10.8 10.0 7.8
Eastern Michigan 8.6 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.4 8.8 10.6 12.9 16.0 20.0
Western Michigan 9.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 6.6 8.6 11.3 14.7 18.8 24.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.4 8.6 10.6 11.9 12.9 12.4 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.4 0.7
Ball St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.2 9.7 11.6 12.2 12.6 11.5 9.4 6.6 4.0 1.8 0.5
Bowling Green 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.3 8.2 9.9 11.3 12.1 11.8 10.6 8.4 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.4
Kent St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.8 8.7 10.1 11.1 11.1 10.9 9.5 7.9 6.0 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2
Buffalo 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.2 8.8 10.3 11.3 11.5 10.9 9.3 7.5 5.3 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2
Central Michigan 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.5 8.4 10.1 11.4 11.6 11.2 9.8 8.3 5.9 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2
Akron 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.6 7.6 9.6 10.9 11.8 11.5 10.5 9.1 7.0 4.7 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
Ohio 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 4.8 7.0 9.0 10.8 11.5 11.7 11.0 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Miami (OH) 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.9 8.3 10.3 11.7 12.0 11.6 10.3 8.5 6.3 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northern Illinois 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.1 12.5 12.4 11.3 9.8 7.4 5.3 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 1.3 3.7 6.6 9.0 10.9 12.0 12.0 10.8 9.3 7.6 6.2 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 1.3 4.2 8.0 11.3 13.4 14.0 13.2 11.0 8.3 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Toledo 25.3% 17.0 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 20.7% 13.3 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 19.0% 12.3 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 12.2% 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 11.1% 6.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 12.1% 7.1 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Akron 9.0% 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Ohio 6.3% 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 4.8% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 3.4% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Toledo 20.0% 18.0% 2.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 3.2 6.8 4.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 80.0 2.5%
Ball St. 17.2% 15.3% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.8 5.9 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 82.8 2.2%
Bowling Green 17.6% 15.2% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 3.0 6.5 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 82.4 2.8%
Kent St. 11.6% 9.6% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.1 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 88.4 2.2%
Buffalo 10.1% 9.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.9 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 89.9 0.5%
Central Michigan 9.7% 9.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 90.3 0.6%
Akron 7.3% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 92.7 0.3%
Ohio 5.9% 5.4% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 94.1 0.6%
Miami (OH) 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 95.0 0.2%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 96.7 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 98.1 0.1%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Toledo 20.0% 1.3% 19.4% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 17.2% 1.2% 16.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 17.6% 1.6% 16.8% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 11.6% 1.3% 10.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 10.1% 0.3% 10.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 9.7% 0.4% 9.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 7.3% 0.2% 7.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 5.9% 0.4% 5.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.0% 0.2% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.9 9.9 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.1 0.2 93.0 6.8 0.1
2nd Round 24.1% 0.2 75.9 23.4 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.8 0.1
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0