Toledo
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#87
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#153
Pace69.6#186
Improvement+0.8#86

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+6.0#45
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#283
Layup/Dunks-1.6#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#10
Freethrows+2.8#45
Improvement+0.3#118

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#112
First Shot+1.3#130
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#135
Layups/Dunks-0.6#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#120
Freethrows+2.4#64
Improvement+0.4#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 28.9% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 5.7% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.8 11.1 12.2
.500 or above 92.8% 97.8% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 91.5% 84.0%
Conference Champion 27.4% 35.6% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four1.3% 2.4% 0.8%
First Round21.0% 27.8% 18.4%
Second Round5.8% 8.7% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.4% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 39 - 512 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 176   @ Valparaiso L 77-79 64%     0 - 1 +0.2 +2.1 -1.8
  Nov 10, 2019 233   @ Marshall W 96-70 75%     1 - 1 +25.0 +10.5 +11.1
  Nov 16, 2019 283   Robert Morris W 70-56 92%     2 - 1 +4.3 -1.4 +6.8
  Nov 17, 2019 347   Howard W 112-68 98%     3 - 1 +26.0 +22.2 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2019 52   @ Notre Dame L 64-71 27%    
  Nov 30, 2019 178   Oakland W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 04, 2019 344   @ Cleveland St. W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 08, 2019 233   Marshall W 85-72 88%    
  Dec 14, 2019 284   @ Detroit Mercy W 81-71 81%    
  Dec 17, 2019 266   @ UMKC W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 21, 2019 109   Wright St. W 78-72 69%    
  Dec 28, 2019 123   @ Bradley W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 03, 2020 101   @ Ball St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 07, 2020 120   @ Kent St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 11, 2020 241   Western Michigan W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 14, 2020 132   Central Michigan W 86-79 72%    
  Jan 18, 2020 134   @ Akron W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 21, 2020 158   @ Ohio W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2020 99   Bowling Green W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 28, 2020 120   Kent St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 01, 2020 193   @ Eastern Michigan W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 04, 2020 160   Northern Illinois W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 99   @ Bowling Green L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 11, 2020 161   Miami (OH) W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 104   Buffalo W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 241   @ Western Michigan W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 25, 2020 132   @ Central Michigan W 83-82 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 101   Ball St. W 72-68 65%    
  Mar 03, 2020 160   @ Northern Illinois W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 06, 2020 193   Eastern Michigan W 70-59 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.0 7.1 7.4 4.9 2.4 0.6 27.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.1 6.5 3.8 1.2 0.2 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.8 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.1 10.7 12.8 13.4 13.0 11.3 8.6 5.1 2.4 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.0
16-2 97.0% 4.9    4.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 86.1% 7.4    5.8 1.5 0.1
14-4 62.9% 7.1    3.8 2.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 30.7% 4.0    1.3 1.9 0.7 0.2
12-6 7.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 18.4 7.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 89.5% 60.2% 29.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 73.6%
17-1 2.4% 71.9% 50.7% 21.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 43.1%
16-2 5.1% 55.0% 42.7% 12.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 21.4%
15-3 8.6% 41.9% 36.9% 5.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.9%
14-4 11.3% 30.8% 29.5% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 7.8 1.8%
13-5 13.0% 25.5% 25.2% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 0.4%
12-6 13.4% 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 12.8 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.1%
11-7 12.8% 13.7% 13.7% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 11.1
10-8 10.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.7
9-9 8.1% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.7
8-10 5.9% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.7
7-11 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.6% 19.6% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 3.5 8.1 4.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 78.4 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 12.8 25.6 30.8 17.9 5.1 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 25.0 8.3 4.2 20.8 12.5 29.2