Toledo
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#125
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#186
Pace69.0#195
Improvement-5.7#344

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#136
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#170
Layup/Dunks-3.6#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#20
Freethrows+1.5#75
Improvement-3.2#323

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot+1.3#121
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#223
Layups/Dunks+0.0#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
Freethrows+1.1#118
Improvement-2.5#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 12.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 73.5% 88.2% 69.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 81.5% 57.4%
Conference Champion 1.5% 5.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.6% 3.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.9% 12.3% 6.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 77 - 13
Quad 410 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 169   @ Valparaiso L 77-79 49%     0 - 1 +0.7 +1.7 -0.9
  Nov 10, 2019 158   @ Marshall W 96-70 46%     1 - 1 +29.5 +13.1 +13.0
  Nov 16, 2019 212   Robert Morris W 70-56 79%     2 - 1 +8.0 -1.0 +10.0
  Nov 17, 2019 349   Howard W 112-68 97%     3 - 1 +23.2 +21.8 -0.4
  Nov 21, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame L 62-64 OT 18%     3 - 2 +10.1 -15.2 +25.6
  Nov 30, 2019 204   Oakland W 65-63 78%     4 - 2 -3.7 -0.8 -2.6
  Dec 04, 2019 308   @ Cleveland St. W 80-65 79%     5 - 2 +8.7 +4.2 +4.3
  Dec 08, 2019 158   Marshall W 82-72 67%     6 - 2 +7.7 +3.7 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2019 270   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 70%     7 - 2 +4.8 +6.2 -1.1
  Dec 17, 2019 241   @ UMKC L 57-72 65%     7 - 3 -16.6 -14.2 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2019 114   Wright St. L 72-79 56%     7 - 4 -6.1 -4.6 -1.1
  Dec 28, 2019 90   @ Bradley L 66-78 27%     7 - 5 -3.4 -2.5 -0.8
  Jan 03, 2020 99   @ Ball St. L 57-61 30%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +3.7 -7.5 +11.1
  Jan 07, 2020 104   @ Kent St. L 77-84 31%     7 - 7 0 - 2 +0.5 +9.2 -8.9
  Jan 11, 2020 240   Western Michigan W 67-59 82%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +0.7 -6.2 +7.4
  Jan 14, 2020 166   Central Michigan L 67-74 69%     8 - 8 1 - 3 -9.9 -6.8 -3.4
  Jan 18, 2020 72   @ Akron L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 21, 2020 207   @ Ohio W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 25, 2020 153   Bowling Green W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 28, 2020 104   Kent St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 227   @ Eastern Michigan W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 04, 2020 190   Northern Illinois W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 153   @ Bowling Green L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 11, 2020 191   Miami (OH) W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 15, 2020 151   Buffalo W 80-76 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 240   @ Western Michigan W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 25, 2020 166   @ Central Michigan L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 29, 2020 99   Ball St. W 68-67 51%    
  Mar 03, 2020 190   @ Northern Illinois W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 06, 2020 227   Eastern Michigan W 69-60 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.2 6.1 1.6 0.1 15.1 4th
5th 0.6 5.6 7.6 2.2 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 7.5 2.5 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.5 3.0 0.2 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.5 2.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 6.1 10.7 15.5 17.8 17.7 13.7 8.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 72.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 16.3% 16.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.1% 23.5% 23.5% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 4.0% 20.8% 20.8% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1
12-6 8.4% 17.7% 17.7% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 6.9
11-7 13.7% 13.1% 13.1% 13.7 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 11.9
10-8 17.7% 8.6% 8.6% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 16.1
9-9 17.8% 5.5% 5.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 16.8
8-10 15.5% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.9
7-11 10.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.4
6-12 6.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.0
5-13 3.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.8 1.4 0.4 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%