Ohio
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#201
Pace69.5#180
Improvement-4.8#335

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#180
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#206
Layup/Dunks+1.6#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#63
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement-1.5#260

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#255
First Shot-3.7#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#108
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#126
Freethrows-2.7#316
Improvement-3.3#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 13.2% 21.9% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 19.9% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.2% 10.1% 34.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 75 - 15
Quad 48 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 107   @ St. Bonaventure W 65-53 17%     1 - 0 +19.2 +5.1 +15.5
  Nov 13, 2019 248   @ Iona W 81-72 46%     2 - 0 +7.1 +0.4 +6.0
  Nov 16, 2019 23   @ Villanova L 54-78 5%     2 - 1 -7.7 -11.9 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2019 5   Baylor L 53-76 4%     2 - 2 -5.4 -6.1 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2019 105   Utah L 66-80 24%     2 - 3 -9.5 -3.9 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2019 284   Middle Tennessee W 75-63 65%     3 - 3 +5.1 -4.8 +9.4
  Nov 30, 2019 270   Detroit Mercy W 91-81 72%     4 - 3 +1.0 +9.2 -8.4
  Dec 08, 2019 339   Tennessee Tech W 81-54 88%     5 - 3 +11.5 +5.3 +7.1
  Dec 17, 2019 17   Purdue L 51-69 10%     5 - 4 -6.9 -10.2 +2.0
  Dec 21, 2019 290   Morehead St. W 82-76 76%     6 - 4 -4.3 +8.9 -12.8
  Dec 29, 2019 261   Campbell L 55-63 71%     6 - 5 -16.6 -14.6 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2020 240   @ Western Michigan L 65-77 45%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -13.5 -10.8 -2.5
  Jan 07, 2020 227   Eastern Michigan W 74-68 65%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -0.8 -2.9 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2020 153   Bowling Green L 74-83 46%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -10.9 +4.3 -16.1
  Jan 14, 2020 151   @ Buffalo L 73-76 26%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +1.0 -2.2 +3.3
  Jan 18, 2020 227   @ Eastern Michigan L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 21, 2020 125   Toledo L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 25, 2020 72   Akron L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 28, 2020 190   @ Northern Illinois L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 01, 2020 99   @ Ball St. L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 08, 2020 191   Miami (OH) W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 11, 2020 240   Western Michigan W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 104   @ Kent St. L 68-78 16%    
  Feb 18, 2020 166   Central Michigan W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 153   @ Bowling Green L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 25, 2020 151   Buffalo L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 29, 2020 104   Kent St. L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 03, 2020 72   @ Akron L 65-78 11%    
  Mar 06, 2020 191   @ Miami (OH) L 71-75 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 2.9 0.5 6.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.4 3.1 0.2 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 7.3 5.6 0.6 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 7.5 7.3 1.4 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.9 7.3 1.8 0.1 18.5 11th
12th 0.5 2.5 4.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.4 12th
Total 0.5 2.8 7.1 13.4 18.0 18.7 16.3 11.5 6.7 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 32.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 7.7% 7.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.3% 6.1% 6.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
9-9 6.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-10 11.5% 1.7% 1.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.3
7-11 16.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 16.2
6-12 18.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 18.6
5-13 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.9
4-14 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
3-15 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%