Akron
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#86
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#75
Pace72.2#104
Improvement-0.2#192

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#73
First Shot+5.2#39
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#294
Layup/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#14
Freethrows+2.1#43
Improvement+2.9#39

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot+2.4#95
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#28
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement-3.1#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.0% 30.7% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.7% 97.7%
Conference Champion 52.7% 60.5% 35.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round28.8% 30.4% 25.2%
Second Round6.9% 7.6% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.4% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 311 - 412 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 8   @ West Virginia L 84-94 12%     0 - 1 +9.0 +9.1 +1.6
  Nov 15, 2019 300   NC Central W 57-47 94%     1 - 1 -1.1 -22.4 +20.8
  Nov 18, 2019 330   South Carolina Upstate W 76-45 95%     2 - 1 +17.7 +0.0 +19.2
  Nov 21, 2019 233   Youngstown St. W 82-60 89%     3 - 1 +15.1 +0.1 +13.9
  Nov 24, 2019 6   @ Louisville L 76-82 11%     3 - 2 +13.6 +7.8 +6.3
  Nov 29, 2019 251   Merrimack W 64-47 90%     4 - 2 +9.1 -4.5 +15.2
  Dec 04, 2019 156   @ Marshall W 85-73 61%     5 - 2 +15.4 +6.4 +7.9
  Dec 08, 2019 332   Southern W 72-57 96%     6 - 2 +1.3 -0.9 +3.6
  Dec 20, 2019 168   Tulane W 62-61 73%     7 - 2 +1.0 -11.1 +12.0
  Dec 21, 2019 65   Liberty L 67-80 44%     7 - 3 -5.2 +7.6 -14.3
  Dec 30, 2019 201   Massachusetts W 85-79 86%     8 - 3 +0.5 +1.4 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2020 234   @ Eastern Michigan W 69-45 76%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +22.8 +10.8 +15.1
  Jan 07, 2020 230   Western Michigan W 84-69 88%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +8.2 +3.7 +3.9
  Jan 10, 2020 101   Ball St. W 75-60 67%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +16.8 +7.7 +9.6
  Jan 14, 2020 188   @ Northern Illinois W 72-49 68%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +24.6 +5.9 +20.1
  Jan 18, 2020 118   Toledo L 89-99 72%     12 - 4 4 - 1 -9.7 +13.1 -22.6
  Jan 21, 2020 189   @ Miami (OH) W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 25, 2020 203   @ Ohio W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 28, 2020 133   Buffalo W 83-76 74%    
  Jan 31, 2020 109   @ Kent St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 08, 2020 234   Eastern Michigan W 72-59 89%    
  Feb 11, 2020 151   Bowling Green W 80-72 79%    
  Feb 15, 2020 187   @ Central Michigan W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 18, 2020 230   @ Western Michigan W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 22, 2020 189   Miami (OH) W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 25, 2020 151   @ Bowling Green W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 133   @ Buffalo W 80-79 54%    
  Mar 03, 2020 203   Ohio W 79-67 86%    
  Mar 06, 2020 109   Kent St. W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 9.4 15.7 14.6 8.2 2.1 52.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.4 9.2 4.2 1.1 0.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.9 1.5 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.2 9.8 15.6 20.2 20.0 15.7 8.3 2.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 98.9% 8.2    7.8 0.4
15-3 93.2% 14.6    12.5 2.1 0.1
14-4 78.3% 15.7    10.1 5.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 46.7% 9.4    3.2 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 15.4% 2.4    0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.7% 52.7 35.9 12.9 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.1% 54.6% 45.4% 9.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 16.8%
16-2 8.3% 43.1% 41.0% 2.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.1 4.7 3.5%
15-3 15.7% 37.3% 36.8% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.9 0.8%
14-4 20.0% 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 12.2 0.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 13.6 0.1%
13-5 20.2% 27.3% 27.3% 12.5 0.1 2.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 14.7
12-6 15.6% 23.3% 23.3% 12.7 0.0 1.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.0
11-7 9.8% 19.1% 19.1% 13.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.0
10-8 5.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.5
9-9 2.1% 10.1% 10.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.2% 9.6% 9.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.0% 28.6% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.6 15.9 8.5 1.1 0.0 71.0 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 8.4 0.8 3.1 10.4 12.3 12.9 8.5 12.3 13.5 19.3 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 17.9% 11.1 2.1 11.3 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 16.4% 11.3 0.5 10.8 5.1