Buffalo
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#105
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#178
Pace83.1#17
Improvement+2.2#12

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#84
First Shot+1.4#123
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#85
Layup/Dunks-1.3#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#23
Freethrows-2.4#296
Improvement+1.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#143
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#261
Layups/Dunks-8.5#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#8
Freethrows-2.4#299
Improvement+0.6#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 19.0% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 3.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.7 11.4 12.2
.500 or above 74.4% 86.7% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 78.2% 63.9%
Conference Champion 14.4% 19.3% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.0% 4.9%
First Four0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round13.3% 18.4% 9.7%
Second Round3.5% 5.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 41.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 38 - 511 - 11
Quad 47 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 205   Dartmouth L 63-68 81%     0 - 1 -10.3 -12.0 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2019 100   Harvard W 88-76 47%     1 - 1 +16.8 +10.7 +5.2
  Nov 21, 2019 82   Connecticut L 82-84 41%    
  Nov 30, 2019 153   William & Mary W 84-77 73%    
  Dec 03, 2019 122   @ Vanderbilt L 78-79 45%    
  Dec 08, 2019 75   @ DePaul L 78-84 28%    
  Dec 14, 2019 265   Army W 87-74 87%    
  Dec 18, 2019 298   Canisius W 87-72 91%    
  Dec 21, 2019 331   Niagara W 90-72 95%    
  Dec 30, 2019 144   St. Bonaventure W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 04, 2020 156   Northern Illinois W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 07, 2020 91   @ Ball St. L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 10, 2020 162   @ Miami (OH) W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 14, 2020 157   Ohio W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 18, 2020 129   @ Central Michigan L 91-92 46%    
  Jan 21, 2020 241   Western Michigan W 87-76 83%    
  Jan 24, 2020 117   Kent St. W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 28, 2020 134   @ Akron L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 31, 2020 103   Bowling Green W 84-82 58%    
  Feb 04, 2020 194   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 129   Central Michigan W 94-89 65%    
  Feb 15, 2020 86   @ Toledo L 77-82 33%    
  Feb 18, 2020 91   Ball St. W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 117   @ Kent St. L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 25, 2020 157   @ Ohio W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 134   Akron W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 03, 2020 162   Miami (OH) W 82-75 72%    
  Mar 06, 2020 103   @ Bowling Green L 81-85 38%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.9 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.8 4.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.0 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.1 0.6 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.4 7.2 9.8 11.0 11.9 12.0 10.5 9.5 6.9 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 95.7% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-3 84.9% 3.8    2.8 1.0 0.0
14-4 57.2% 3.9    2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.3% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.9 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 94.2% 69.2% 25.0% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1%
17-1 1.0% 80.7% 49.4% 31.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 61.9%
16-2 2.3% 62.6% 44.6% 18.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 32.5%
15-3 4.5% 40.2% 32.5% 7.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 2.7 11.5%
14-4 6.9% 28.3% 24.6% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.9 4.9%
13-5 9.5% 23.1% 22.4% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.9%
12-6 10.5% 18.2% 18.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.6 0.1%
11-7 12.0% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.6 0.0%
10-8 11.9% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.0%
9-9 11.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-10 9.8% 2.6% 2.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-11 7.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
6-12 5.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.7% 12.2% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.5 4.7 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 86.3 1.7%