Buffalo
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Pace83.1#8
Improvement+0.2#174

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#118
First Shot-0.2#186
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#34
Layup/Dunks+4.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
Freethrows-2.2#322
Improvement-0.7#217

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#162
First Shot+1.8#114
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#316
Layups/Dunks-5.3#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#17
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement+0.8#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 9.9% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 93.1% 95.5% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 81.9% 56.7%
Conference Champion 7.0% 8.2% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 2.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.1% 9.9% 6.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 22 - 43 - 4
Quad 310 - 513 - 9
Quad 47 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 212   Dartmouth L 63-68 78%     0 - 1 -11.0 -14.3 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2019 94   Harvard W 88-76 37%     1 - 1 +17.5 +11.0 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2019 78   Connecticut L 68-79 32%     1 - 2 -4.0 -4.0 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2019 179   Towson W 76-73 61%     2 - 2 +2.3 -3.6 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2019 147   Missouri St. W 75-74 53%     3 - 2 +2.2 +7.3 -5.0
  Nov 30, 2019 163   William & Mary W 88-77 68%     4 - 2 +8.3 +2.6 +4.6
  Dec 03, 2019 152   @ Vanderbilt L 76-90 44%     4 - 3 -10.3 -9.2 +1.2
  Dec 08, 2019 61   @ DePaul W 74-69 19%     5 - 3 +16.3 -2.7 +18.3
  Dec 14, 2019 295   Army L 76-89 88%     5 - 4 -23.5 -10.7 -11.4
  Dec 18, 2019 234   Canisius W 82-73 80%     6 - 4 +2.1 +3.0 -1.4
  Dec 21, 2019 289   Niagara W 92-72 88%     7 - 4 +9.6 +8.9 +0.4
  Dec 30, 2019 116   St. Bonaventure W 84-79 55%     8 - 4 +5.8 +2.9 +2.3
  Jan 04, 2020 188   Northern Illinois L 72-73 73%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -5.1 +1.3 -6.4
  Jan 07, 2020 101   @ Ball St. L 68-88 30%     8 - 6 0 - 2 -12.5 -3.3 -7.9
  Jan 10, 2020 192   @ Miami (OH) W 83-78 55%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +6.0 -0.1 +5.6
  Jan 14, 2020 200   Ohio W 76-73 77%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -2.4 -3.1 +0.5
  Jan 18, 2020 187   @ Central Michigan W 86-67 52%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +20.7 -1.8 +19.5
  Jan 21, 2020 230   Western Michigan W 82-73 80%    
  Jan 24, 2020 108   Kent St. W 80-79 54%    
  Jan 28, 2020 86   @ Akron L 76-83 25%    
  Jan 31, 2020 155   Bowling Green W 84-80 66%    
  Feb 04, 2020 235   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 187   Central Michigan W 90-84 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 119   @ Toledo L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 18, 2020 101   Ball St. W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 22, 2020 108   @ Kent St. L 77-82 33%    
  Feb 25, 2020 200   @ Ohio W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 29, 2020 86   Akron L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 03, 2020 192   Miami (OH) W 83-76 74%    
  Mar 06, 2020 155   @ Bowling Green L 82-83 45%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.8 5.3 0.9 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.8 6.8 1.2 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.4 4.7 7.9 1.8 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 7.1 2.9 0.1 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.6 0.3 9.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 7.2 11.9 16.8 19.3 17.3 12.6 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 95.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 75.4% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 39.6% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.5% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 46.4% 43.6% 2.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8%
15-3 0.8% 31.6% 31.1% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.7%
14-4 2.9% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.0%
13-5 7.1% 18.4% 18.4% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.8
12-6 12.6% 16.0% 16.0% 12.6 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.6
11-7 17.3% 11.6% 11.6% 12.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.3
10-8 19.3% 7.3% 7.3% 13.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 17.9
9-9 16.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 16.0
8-10 11.9% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.5
7-11 7.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
6-12 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.6 2.1 20.8 14.6 35.4 27.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Lose Out 0.0%