Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
61 Northern Iowa 49.4%   12   15 - 3 6 - 2 23 - 5 14 - 4 +8.3      +6.1 36 +2.2 108 64.2 304 +12.6 33 +8.1 1
90 Loyola Chicago 22.4%   13 - 7 6 - 2 20 - 10 13 - 5 +5.9      +0.4 170 +5.5 55 64.0 310 +3.6 115 +7.4 2
106 Bradley 14.6%   13 - 7 5 - 3 19 - 11 11 - 7 +4.6      +1.9 120 +2.6 96 66.1 262 +3.8 114 +4.9 4
123 Indiana St. 8.3%   10 - 8 4 - 4 16 - 12 10 - 8 +2.8      +2.8 97 -0.1 163 68.0 223 +3.5 116 +1.4 6
143 Missouri St. 4.6%   10 - 11 4 - 4 15 - 16 9 - 9 +1.4      -1.1 207 +2.4 103 65.8 268 -0.4 178 +0.7 8
146 Drake 5.6%   13 - 6 5 - 3 18 - 11 10 - 8 +1.3      -0.2 181 +1.5 129 69.0 187 +4.9 102 +3.7 5
164 Valparaiso 3.1%   10 - 10 4 - 4 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.1      +0.2 173 -0.3 172 72.7 88 +0.6 158 +1.0 7
165 Southern Illinois 3.5%   10 - 10 5 - 3 14 - 16 9 - 9 -0.1      -3.2 270 +3.1 91 60.6 342 -0.4 179 +5.4 3
217 Illinois St. 0.6%   5 - 14 1 - 7 9 - 20 5 - 13 -3.3      -2.4 245 -0.9 196 68.0 218 -4.3 235 -7.9 9
266 Evansville 0.1%   8 - 12 0 - 8 10 - 20 2 - 16 -5.6      -3.4 273 -2.2 232 69.1 184 -2.8 213 -14.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Iowa 1.4 68.8 22.2 6.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Chicago 2.1 35.7 35.3 16.7 6.8 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Bradley 3.2 11.9 25.5 27.2 15.9 9.4 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.1
Indiana St. 4.9 2.5 7.3 14.8 19.8 18.3 15.8 12.3 8.4 0.8 0.0
Missouri St. 5.7 0.7 3.5 9.6 13.7 16.3 18.1 18.7 17.2 2.2
Drake 4.7 3.3 7.9 15.8 19.6 19.0 16.6 11.5 5.9 0.4
Valparaiso 6.2 0.4 2.0 5.9 9.5 14.1 17.6 22.0 23.9 4.4 0.0
Southern Illinois 4.9 2.4 7.2 14.1 17.8 19.1 17.1 13.2 8.8 0.4
Illinois St. 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 4.2 12.0 66.3 15.2
Evansville 9.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 24.8 73.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Iowa 14 - 4 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.4 13.0 23.0 27.6 21.1 7.8
Loyola Chicago 13 - 5 0.1 0.6 2.7 6.9 15.0 22.3 23.8 18.1 8.7 1.8
Bradley 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.1 9.6 17.4 22.1 22.3 14.9 6.9 1.4
Indiana St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.8 15.5 21.6 21.9 16.5 9.1 2.9 0.6
Missouri St. 9 - 9 0.3 1.8 6.6 14.6 21.8 22.8 17.2 10.1 3.8 0.8 0.1
Drake 10 - 8 0.3 1.8 6.7 15.3 22.6 22.9 16.7 9.3 3.4 0.9 0.1
Valparaiso 8 - 10 0.5 3.9 10.8 19.5 22.8 21.0 13.3 6.0 1.9 0.4 0.0
Southern Illinois 9 - 9 0.6 2.9 8.5 16.6 23.2 21.8 14.9 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1
Illinois St. 5 - 13 1.7 7.7 17.6 23.5 23.1 15.0 7.8 2.9 0.7 0.1
Evansville 2 - 16 6.8 20.1 26.7 23.6 13.8 6.5 1.9 0.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Iowa 68.8% 50.2 15.4 2.8 0.4 0.0
Loyola Chicago 35.7% 20.8 12.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
Bradley 11.9% 4.7 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
Indiana St. 2.5% 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 0.7% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Drake 3.3% 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 2.4% 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Illinois St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Iowa 49.4% 37.1% 12.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 6.4 19.9 15.5 0.4 50.6 19.5%
Loyola Chicago 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.0 9.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 77.6 0.0%
Bradley 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.5 4.5 6.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 85.4 0.0%
Indiana St. 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 91.7 0.0%
Missouri St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.6 95.4 0.0%
Drake 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 2.6 1.4 0.4 94.4 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 96.9 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 96.5 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Iowa 49.4% 8.3% 44.7% 15.6% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 22.4% 0.0% 22.4% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 14.6% 0.0% 14.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 4.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.1% 0.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3
1st Round 99.6% 1.1 0.4 92.0 7.6
2nd Round 24.7% 0.3 75.3 24.2 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.5 0.1
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0