Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Northern Iowa 24.0%   12   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +4.7      0.0 173 +4.7 59 62.3 335 +12.7 41 0.0 1
113 Bradley 14.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +2.9      +1.0 141 +1.9 118 64.4 304 -2.8 219 0.0 1
125 Missouri St. 12.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 +2.4      -1.1 211 +3.4 77 65.8 284 -6.9 265 0.0 1
129 Evansville 15.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +2.1      +0.5 159 +1.7 120 72.3 118 +30.9 1 0.0 1
130 Drake 11.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +2.1      +1.8 117 +0.3 148 71.5 132 +4.5 116 0.0 1
142 Loyola Chicago 9.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 +1.3      -1.0 206 +2.3 103 64.7 301 -13.4 323 0.0 1
152 Indiana St. 8.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 +0.5      +2.5 98 -1.9 219 71.5 134 +1.2 160 0.0 1
164 Illinois St. 6.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -0.3      -0.1 175 -0.3 166 67.5 246 +14.2 30 0.0 1
181 Valparaiso 4.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 -1.3      -0.8 203 -0.4 172 73.7 86 +5.2 107 0.0 1
206 Southern Illinois 2.9%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -2.5      -4.0 291 +1.5 125 63.2 329 -5.2 250 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Iowa 3.4 29.2 18.3 13.6 10.6 8.4 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.7 1.5
Bradley 4.3 18.6 14.8 12.9 11.7 10.4 8.7 7.7 6.4 5.2 3.6
Missouri St. 4.5 14.7 14.0 13.1 12.0 11.1 9.9 8.7 7.2 5.7 3.6
Evansville 4.7 14.6 13.1 12.3 11.3 10.8 9.7 8.7 8.0 6.7 4.8
Drake 4.7 13.8 13.2 12.6 12.0 10.7 10.0 9.1 7.8 6.3 4.4
Loyola Chicago 5.1 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.0 9.1 8.1 6.1
Indiana St. 5.5 9.0 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 9.9 8.7
Illinois St. 6.0 6.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.0 11.7
Valparaiso 6.5 4.3 5.9 7.1 8.1 9.6 10.6 12.1 13.0 14.3 15.1
Southern Illinois 7.1 2.6 4.0 5.3 6.6 8.0 9.8 11.8 14.0 17.1 20.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Iowa 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 11.8 10.0 7.4 4.7 2.1 0.6
Bradley 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.7 7.6 9.3 11.1 11.7 11.7 10.7 9.0 7.0 4.6 2.4 1.1 0.2
Missouri St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.4 8.6 10.4 12.0 12.3 11.9 10.4 8.1 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Evansville 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.0 6.9 8.7 10.5 11.6 11.6 11.0 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2
Drake 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.7 8.8 10.8 11.8 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.6 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.4 12.2 11.5 10.2 8.6 6.4 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Indiana St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.4 9.2 10.5 11.5 11.6 10.6 9.2 7.3 5.2 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.4 6.6 8.7 10.5 11.4 11.7 11.0 9.7 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.3 5.5 8.2 10.3 11.7 12.2 11.8 10.3 8.5 6.5 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.8 7.7 10.1 12.3 12.6 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.7 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Iowa 29.2% 20.5 6.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bradley 18.6% 12.4 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 14.7% 9.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Evansville 14.6% 9.3 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 13.8% 8.7 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 11.0% 6.7 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 9.0% 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 6.6% 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 4.3% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Iowa 24.0% 20.8% 3.2% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 4.2 8.6 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 76.0 4.1%
Bradley 14.8% 14.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 4.3 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.2 85.2 0.8%
Missouri St. 12.1% 11.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.6 3.0 1.7 0.5 87.9 0.2%
Evansville 15.1% 11.6% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 3.1 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 84.9 4.0%
Drake 11.8% 11.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.1 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.2 88.2 0.5%
Loyola Chicago 9.1% 9.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.7 90.9 0.1%
Indiana St. 8.2% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 91.8 0.2%
Illinois St. 6.6% 6.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 93.4 0.5%
Valparaiso 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 95.6 0.1%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 97.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Iowa 24.0% 2.1% 22.8% 5.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 14.8% 0.5% 14.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 12.1% 0.2% 12.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 15.1% 2.5% 13.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 11.8% 0.4% 11.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 9.1% 0.2% 9.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 8.2% 0.2% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 6.6% 0.4% 6.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.5 0.2
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 94.4 5.3 0.1
2nd Round 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.5 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0