Drake
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#146
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#102
Pace69.0#187
Improvement+0.4#156

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#181
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#273
Layup/Dunks+0.9#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#72
Freethrows-2.2#322
Improvement+2.3#67

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot-1.8#223
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#2
Layups/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-1.8#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.0% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 98.1% 99.9% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 91.2% 68.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 7.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 7.0% 4.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 38 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 346   Kennesaw St. W 86-55 96%     1 - 0 +11.7 +10.7 +2.7
  Nov 11, 2019 43   @ Cincinnati L 59-81 13%     1 - 1 -8.5 -6.4 -2.0
  Nov 13, 2019 226   UMKC W 76-58 78%     2 - 1 +11.3 +2.5 +9.3
  Nov 21, 2019 300   Lehigh W 74-58 87%     3 - 1 +5.0 -2.5 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2019 203   Miami (OH) L 59-67 65%     3 - 2 -10.6 -22.9 +12.9
  Nov 26, 2019 129   Northeastern W 59-56 47%     4 - 2 +5.2 -10.7 +16.1
  Nov 27, 2019 120   Murray St. W 63-53 43%     5 - 2 +13.0 -7.7 +21.0
  Dec 03, 2019 257   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 56-53 82%     6 - 2 -5.3 -14.3 +9.3
  Dec 07, 2019 332   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-73 91%     7 - 2 -8.7 -4.6 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2019 9   @ Dayton L 47-78 6%     7 - 3 -12.0 -18.4 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2019 170   @ Air Force W 85-80 45%     8 - 3 +7.6 +15.3 -7.4
  Dec 31, 2019 106   @ Bradley L 72-80 28%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -0.5 +3.7 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2020 123   Indiana St. W 80-76 56%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +3.8 +6.2 -2.4
  Jan 07, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago W 65-62 43%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +6.0 +3.4 +2.9
  Jan 11, 2020 164   @ Valparaiso L 61-66 44%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -2.2 -10.4 +8.2
  Jan 16, 2020 217   Illinois St. W 84-74 76%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +3.8 +12.5 -8.3
  Jan 19, 2020 165   @ Southern Illinois L 49-66 44%     11 - 6 3 - 3 -14.2 -15.1 -0.6
  Jan 22, 2020 266   @ Evansville W 73-50 65%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +20.3 +5.1 +17.0
  Jan 26, 2020 143   Missouri St. W 71-69 61%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +0.5 -7.6 +7.9
  Jan 29, 2020 123   @ Indiana St. L 68-72 32%    
  Feb 01, 2020 165   Southern Illinois W 63-59 66%    
  Feb 05, 2020 106   Bradley L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 08, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 12, 2020 143   @ Missouri St. L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 16, 2020 266   Evansville W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 19, 2020 164   Valparaiso W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 217   @ Illinois St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 25, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 29, 2020 61   Northern Iowa L 66-70 36%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 8.7 4.0 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 11.1 5.5 0.4 19.6 4th
5th 1.2 9.6 7.7 0.5 19.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 6.2 8.7 1.2 16.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 6.9 1.6 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 1.8 6.7 15.3 22.6 22.9 16.7 9.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 91.3% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 47.6% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 52.9% 52.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.9% 15.4% 15.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 3.4% 13.1% 13.1% 12.5 0.2 0.2 3.0
12-6 9.3% 10.8% 10.8% 12.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 8.3
11-7 16.7% 6.9% 6.9% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 15.6
10-8 22.9% 6.1% 6.1% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 21.5
9-9 22.6% 4.1% 4.1% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 21.6
8-10 15.3% 2.6% 2.6% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.9
7-11 6.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 6.6
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 1.2 2.6 1.4 0.4 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%