Evansville
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#272
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#211
Pace69.7#167
Improvement-7.6#352

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#285
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#264
Layup/Dunks-0.7#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
Freethrows+1.7#61
Improvement-7.2#353

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#238
First Shot-3.1#274
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks-3.3#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#117
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.5% 1.6% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.9% 77.0% 90.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 20 - 51 - 6
Quad 34 - 105 - 16
Quad 45 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 104   Ball St. W 79-75 23%     1 - 0 +5.7 +5.2 +0.3
  Nov 12, 2019 13   @ Kentucky W 67-64 2%     2 - 0 +20.5 +2.8 +17.7
  Nov 18, 2019 75   SMU L 57-59 17%     2 - 1 +2.3 -12.8 +14.9
  Nov 22, 2019 230   East Carolina L 68-85 42%     2 - 2 -21.0 -11.9 -7.9
  Nov 23, 2019 193   George Washington L 70-78 36%     2 - 3 -10.3 -1.9 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2019 321   Morgan St. W 115-112 3OT 64%     3 - 3 -6.9 +4.1 -11.8
  Nov 30, 2019 323   @ IUPUI W 70-64 54%     4 - 3 -1.1 -5.8 +4.9
  Dec 04, 2019 326   Western Illinois W 90-86 75%     5 - 3 -9.1 -4.9 -4.8
  Dec 07, 2019 204   Miami (OH) W 101-87 48%     6 - 3 +8.3 +20.4 -12.4
  Dec 14, 2019 215   @ Green Bay W 72-62 29%     7 - 3 +9.7 -10.2 +19.2
  Dec 16, 2019 243   @ Jacksonville St. L 59-85 33%     7 - 4 -27.6 -12.9 -14.8
  Dec 21, 2019 122   Murray St. W 78-76 OT 28%     8 - 4 +1.9 -2.5 +4.2
  Dec 31, 2019 144   @ Missouri St. L 52-65 17%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -8.7 -11.4 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2020 165   Valparaiso L 79-81 OT 37%     8 - 6 0 - 2 -4.8 -0.2 -4.4
  Jan 08, 2020 100   Bradley L 52-72 22%     8 - 7 0 - 3 -17.9 -17.5 -1.2
  Jan 11, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 44-78 9%     8 - 8 0 - 4 -25.2 -16.6 -13.1
  Jan 15, 2020 132   @ Indiana St. L 42-65 14%     8 - 9 0 - 5 -17.7 -27.1 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2020 144   Missouri St. L 58-68 33%     8 - 10 0 - 6 -11.6 -12.0 +0.0
  Jan 22, 2020 143   Drake L 50-73 33%     8 - 11 0 - 7 -24.6 -19.1 -7.2
  Jan 26, 2020 165   @ Valparaiso L 67-76 19%    
  Jan 29, 2020 209   @ Illinois St. L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 61   Northern Iowa L 63-75 15%    
  Feb 05, 2020 171   Southern Illinois L 60-63 40%    
  Feb 09, 2020 100   @ Bradley L 61-75 9%    
  Feb 12, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 16, 2020 143   @ Drake L 63-73 16%    
  Feb 20, 2020 171   @ Southern Illinois L 57-66 21%    
  Feb 23, 2020 132   Indiana St. L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 60-77 6%    
  Feb 29, 2020 209   Illinois St. L 68-69 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 1.1 4.9 7.1 4.4 1.1 0.1 18.6 9th
10th 7.1 19.1 25.0 18.1 7.7 1.2 0.1 78.2 10th
Total 7.1 19.1 26.1 23.0 14.9 6.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 23.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.0
2-16 26.1% 26.1
1-17 19.1% 19.1
0-18 7.1% 7.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.7%