Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#174
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#97
Pace71.8#126
Improvement-0.6#259

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#201
First Shot-2.0#233
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#107
Layup/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#272
Freethrows+0.8#133
Improvement+0.1#159

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#165
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#282
Layups/Dunks-3.0#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#90
Freethrows+2.1#83
Improvement-0.7#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.8% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 45.3% 57.2% 33.2%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 46.6% 34.1%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.9% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 17.2% 13.8% 20.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.4% 6.7% 4.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Neutral) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 13
Quad 47 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 84   Toledo W 79-77 35%     1 - 0 +5.3 +3.4 +1.8
  Nov 09, 2019 116   @ Saint Louis L 70-81 26%     1 - 1 -5.2 -2.2 -2.4
  Nov 12, 2019 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 89-76 76%     2 - 1 +5.0 +6.7 -2.6
  Nov 17, 2019 279   North Dakota W 74-60 79%     3 - 1 +4.8 -4.6 +9.2
  Nov 22, 2019 171   Grand Canyon L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 03, 2019 194   @ Eastern Michigan L 63-65 43%    
  Dec 08, 2019 125   Central Michigan W 84-83 50%    
  Dec 16, 2019 214   @ Charlotte L 65-66 48%    
  Dec 18, 2019 333   @ High Point W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 21, 2019 31   @ Arkansas L 65-81 8%    
  Dec 30, 2019 127   Loyola Chicago W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 04, 2020 135   @ Evansville L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 07, 2020 226   @ Southern Illinois L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 128   Drake W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 15, 2020 103   @ Northern Iowa L 61-69 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 163   Indiana St. W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 23, 2020 120   @ Missouri St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 26, 2020 135   Evansville W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 29, 2020 113   @ Bradley L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 162   Illinois St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 05, 2020 103   Northern Iowa L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 09, 2020 127   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 12, 2020 226   Southern Illinois W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 162   @ Illinois St. L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 19, 2020 128   @ Drake L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 22, 2020 113   Bradley L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 25, 2020 120   Missouri St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 29, 2020 163   @ Indiana St. L 72-76 38%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.5 2.0 0.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.1 0.2 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 5.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.4 3.5 0.6 12.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.2 3.1 1.7 0.3 11.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.4 7.2 9.1 11.2 12.0 12.5 11.2 9.4 7.7 5.3 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 90.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 73.6% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 46.1% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.3
12-6 17.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 76.2% 52.4% 23.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-1 0.1% 69.1% 44.4% 24.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4%
16-2 0.4% 38.0% 30.2% 7.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11.2%
15-3 0.9% 31.0% 30.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4%
14-4 1.8% 27.2% 26.7% 0.5% 12.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6%
13-5 3.5% 19.4% 19.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.8
12-6 5.3% 13.6% 13.6% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.6
11-7 7.7% 11.4% 11.4% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8
10-8 9.4% 7.9% 7.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.7
9-9 11.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.7
8-10 12.5% 3.2% 3.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.1
7-11 12.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
6-12 11.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.0
5-13 9.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 9.1
4-14 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 94.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%