Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#160
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#163
Pace73.4#74
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#171
First Shot-0.4#191
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#121
Layup/Dunks-0.2#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement-1.4#254

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot-0.5#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#129
Layups/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement+1.4#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 32.1% 36.6% 13.5%
.500 or above in Conference 41.1% 46.4% 19.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 4.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.1% 3.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 36 - 77 - 16
Quad 48 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 121   Toledo W 79-77 51%     1 - 0 +2.0 +0.5 +1.4
  Nov 09, 2019 95   @ Saint Louis L 70-81 22%     1 - 1 -2.8 +0.3 -2.5
  Nov 12, 2019 338   @ SIU Edwardsville W 89-76 80%     2 - 1 +4.2 +5.3 -1.9
  Nov 17, 2019 242   North Dakota W 74-60 77%     3 - 1 +6.4 -5.5 +11.7
  Nov 22, 2019 226   Grand Canyon W 78-74 65%     4 - 1 +0.2 -1.4 +1.4
  Nov 24, 2019 89   Nevada L 59-84 29%     4 - 2 -19.0 -14.2 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2019 44   Cincinnati L 77-81 OT 17%     4 - 3 +6.6 +0.1 +7.0
  Dec 03, 2019 227   @ Eastern Michigan L 79-85 54%     4 - 4 -6.9 +8.7 -15.4
  Dec 08, 2019 181   Central Michigan W 77-55 65%     5 - 4 +18.3 -4.8 +21.5
  Dec 16, 2019 155   @ Charlotte L 57-67 38%     5 - 5 -6.8 -6.6 -1.0
  Dec 18, 2019 343   @ High Point W 87-72 84%     6 - 5 +4.4 +13.2 -7.8
  Dec 21, 2019 38   @ Arkansas L 71-73 10%     6 - 6 +12.3 -3.4 +16.0
  Dec 30, 2019 90   Loyola Chicago L 63-66 40%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -0.1 -5.5 +5.4
  Jan 04, 2020 268   @ Evansville W 81-79 OT 62%     7 - 7 1 - 1 -1.1 +2.4 -3.6
  Jan 07, 2020 166   @ Southern Illinois L 50-63 40%     7 - 8 1 - 2 -10.2 -14.2 +3.0
  Jan 11, 2020 144   Drake W 66-61 57%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +3.5 -6.8 +10.2
  Jan 15, 2020 60   @ Northern Iowa L 78-88 15%     8 - 9 2 - 3 +1.3 +9.5 -8.4
  Jan 18, 2020 123   Indiana St. W 86-77 51%     9 - 9 3 - 3 +8.9 +11.7 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2020 145   @ Missouri St. L 60-67 35%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -2.8 -11.3 +8.8
  Jan 26, 2020 268   Evansville W 76-67 81%    
  Jan 29, 2020 106   @ Bradley L 66-73 24%    
  Feb 01, 2020 214   Illinois St. W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 05, 2020 60   Northern Iowa L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 09, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 12, 2020 166   Southern Illinois W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 15, 2020 214   @ Illinois St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 144   @ Drake L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 106   Bradley L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 25, 2020 145   Missouri St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 123   @ Indiana St. L 70-75 31%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.3 1.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 7.3 4.3 0.3 13.0 5th
6th 0.8 7.1 8.3 0.8 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.6 11.1 2.1 0.0 22.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 8.4 10.0 3.2 0.1 24.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.8 11.4 18.6 22.5 19.4 12.8 6.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 52.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 6.8% 6.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.4% 11.8% 11.8% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
11-7 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.7
10-8 12.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 12.1
9-9 19.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 18.7
8-10 22.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 22.0
7-11 18.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.1 0.2 18.3
6-12 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.2
5-13 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 96.8 0.0%