Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 Buffalo 17.5%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +4.1      +3.0 90 +1.1 128 83.1 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
108 Bowling Green 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 11 - 7 +3.8      +3.3 85 +0.5 146 73.8 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Toledo 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +3.7      +1.1 136 +2.6 101 69.0 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Ball St. 14.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +3.2      +0.9 139 +2.3 110 73.5 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Kent St. 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      +2.0 114 -0.1 168 68.8 174 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Akron 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +1.8      -2.2 244 +3.9 70 65.9 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Northern Illinois 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +0.9      +0.9 140 0.0 161 65.9 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 Miami (OH) 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +0.8      +0.2 171 +0.6 141 66.1 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Central Michigan 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 +0.4      +3.2 86 -2.7 251 75.8 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Ohio 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -3.2      -2.7 257 -0.4 179 72.5 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Eastern Michigan 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -3.3      -3.8 284 +0.5 145 60.3 345 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Western Michigan 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -3.9      -2.0 239 -1.9 223 71.4 109 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 4.4 19.9 14.6 12.4 10.4 9.2 7.9 7.0 5.9 4.8 3.8 2.8 1.3
Bowling Green 4.6 18.9 13.9 11.9 10.4 9.3 7.9 7.0 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.0 1.8
Toledo 4.5 18.4 14.9 12.7 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.9 4.7 3.5 2.7 1.8
Ball St. 4.8 15.9 13.3 12.0 10.8 9.6 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.5 3.1 1.9
Kent St. 5.7 10.9 10.4 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.0 8.8 8.2 7.7 6.9 5.4 3.6
Akron 5.5 11.5 11.1 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.0 6.9 5.8 5.0 3.1
Northern Illinois 6.0 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.7 9.4 8.7 8.2 7.4 6.3 4.3
Miami (OH) 6.3 7.6 8.3 8.5 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 8.7 8.9 8.2 7.1 5.1
Central Michigan 6.3 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.1 9.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 7.4 5.1
Ohio 8.3 2.1 3.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.4 8.5 9.7 10.8 13.3 14.4 15.6
Eastern Michigan 8.3 2.1 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.2 9.4 11.1 12.6 14.2 16.7
Western Michigan 8.7 1.7 2.7 3.4 4.3 5.0 6.3 7.6 9.3 11.2 13.1 15.9 19.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Buffalo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.8 11.2 11.2 10.4 8.6 6.5 4.5 2.4 0.6
Bowling Green 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 11.1 10.8 10.2 8.2 6.3 3.9 1.9 0.6
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.5 11.2 11.6 11.8 10.1 8.5 6.3 4.0 2.0 0.5
Ball St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.2 5.4 7.3 8.6 10.3 11.5 11.5 10.5 9.8 7.6 5.1 3.1 1.5 0.5
Kent St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.3 7.3 9.5 10.0 10.7 11.1 10.1 9.0 7.4 5.6 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.2
Akron 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 4.5 6.8 8.4 10.1 11.1 11.1 10.8 9.6 7.9 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.2
Northern Illinois 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.0 8.2 9.5 11.2 11.1 10.9 9.8 8.6 6.4 4.8 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.2
Miami (OH) 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.0 4.9 6.6 8.7 10.1 10.8 11.4 10.6 9.6 7.6 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2
Central Michigan 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.2 6.9 9.1 9.8 11.1 10.9 10.4 8.9 7.5 6.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Ohio 7 - 11 0.8 2.8 5.2 7.8 10.2 11.7 11.6 11.5 10.6 8.4 6.6 5.1 3.3 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.9 3.0 5.7 7.9 10.2 11.1 12.1 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 1.3 3.5 6.5 9.3 11.2 12.2 11.6 11.6 9.4 7.4 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 19.9% 13.4 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 18.9% 12.5 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 18.4% 12.1 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 15.9% 10.1 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 10.9% 6.8 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Akron 11.5% 7.1 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 8.3% 4.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 7.6% 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 7.9% 4.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 2.1% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 17.5% 14.6% 2.9% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.9 4.9 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 82.5 3.4%
Bowling Green 16.7% 14.6% 2.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 2.3 4.8 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 83.3 2.5%
Toledo 16.3% 14.2% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.5 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 83.7 2.5%
Ball St. 14.6% 12.5% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 85.4 2.4%
Kent St. 10.6% 9.4% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.2 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 89.4 1.3%
Akron 9.2% 8.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 90.8 0.7%
Northern Illinois 7.8% 7.1% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 92.2 0.7%
Miami (OH) 7.8% 7.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 92.2 0.7%
Central Michigan 6.9% 6.2% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 93.1 0.7%
Ohio 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 97.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 98.0 0.1%
Western Michigan 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Buffalo 17.5% 1.7% 16.6% 4.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 16.7% 1.3% 16.1% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 16.3% 1.4% 15.6% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 14.6% 1.2% 14.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 10.6% 0.8% 10.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 9.2% 0.4% 8.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 7.8% 0.5% 7.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 7.8% 0.5% 7.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 6.9% 0.5% 6.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.1 0.5 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 90.9 8.6 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 23.6% 0.2 76.4 22.7 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0