Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#104
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace83.1#7
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 19.3% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 4.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 12.7
.500 or above 78.7% 83.1% 59.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 78.7% 63.4%
Conference Champion 19.9% 21.8% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.1% 5.1%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 0.4%
First Round16.6% 18.3% 9.5%
Second Round4.7% 5.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 37 - 510 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 193   Dartmouth W 83-74 81%    
  Nov 16, 2019 69   Harvard L 77-81 37%    
  Nov 21, 2019 73   Connecticut L 80-83 39%    
  Nov 30, 2019 246   William & Mary W 89-77 85%    
  Dec 03, 2019 124   @ Vanderbilt L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 08, 2019 97   @ DePaul L 82-85 39%    
  Dec 14, 2019 244   Army W 87-75 85%    
  Dec 18, 2019 295   Canisius W 87-72 90%    
  Dec 21, 2019 315   Niagara W 93-77 92%    
  Dec 30, 2019 115   St. Bonaventure W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 04, 2020 147   Northern Illinois W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 07, 2020 120   @ Ball St. L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 10, 2020 150   @ Miami (OH) W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 14, 2020 217   Ohio W 85-75 81%    
  Jan 18, 2020 154   @ Central Michigan W 87-86 52%    
  Jan 21, 2020 231   Western Michigan W 86-75 82%    
  Jan 24, 2020 129   Kent St. W 83-78 66%    
  Jan 28, 2020 132   @ Akron L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 31, 2020 108   Bowling Green W 85-82 60%    
  Feb 04, 2020 222   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2020 154   Central Michigan W 90-83 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 112   @ Toledo L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 18, 2020 120   Ball St. W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 22, 2020 129   @ Kent St. L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 25, 2020 217   @ Ohio W 82-78 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 132   Akron W 77-72 67%    
  Mar 03, 2020 150   Miami (OH) W 80-74 70%    
  Mar 06, 2020 108   @ Bowling Green L 82-85 41%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 5.2 4.2 2.4 0.6 19.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.6 5.2 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.8 11.2 11.2 10.4 8.6 6.5 4.5 2.4 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 2.4    2.3 0.0
16-2 94.6% 4.2    3.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 79.7% 5.2    3.7 1.4 0.1
14-4 55.5% 4.8    2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 21.7% 2.3    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 13.4 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 93.6% 63.2% 30.4% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.5%
17-1 2.4% 76.5% 47.0% 29.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 55.6%
16-2 4.5% 59.7% 40.9% 18.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 31.8%
15-3 6.5% 45.6% 34.7% 10.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 16.6%
14-4 8.6% 31.5% 27.8% 3.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 5.2%
13-5 10.4% 21.4% 20.6% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 1.0%
12-6 11.2% 15.6% 15.2% 0.4% 12.9 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.5%
11-7 11.2% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0%
10-8 10.8% 6.8% 6.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
9-9 9.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-10 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-11 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 4.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
5-13 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.5% 14.6% 2.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.9 4.9 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 82.5 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 9.6 32.8 13.0 20.9 23.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 97.4% 4.3 10.3 43.6 43.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 2.9 97.1