IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Southland
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.0	#286
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.7	#289
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.9	#324

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#198

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.6%	11.6%	5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	40.0%	58.6%	30.9%
.500 or above in Conference	60.1%	72.0%	54.3%
Conference Champion	8.8%	14.2%	6.1%
Last Place in Conference	4.7%	2.2%	6.0%

First Four	3.1%	3.6%	2.9%
First Round	6.1%	9.9%	4.2%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2019	254	@ Drexel	L	68-73	33%
Nov 16, 2019	117	Pepperdine	L	69-76	24%
Nov 18, 2019	146	@ UNLV	L	62-73	16%
Nov 25, 2019	156	@ Texas St.	L	58-68	18%
Nov 29, 2019	89	@ SMU	L	57-72	9%
Dec 05, 2019	294	Southeast Missouri St.	W	71-67	63%
Dec 18, 2019	243	@ New Orleans	L	64-69	32%
Dec 21, 2019	309	Nicholls St.	W	72-67	65%
Dec 29, 2019	58	@ Wichita St.	L	57-76	5%
Jan 04, 2020	281	@ Lamar	L	66-69	39%
Jan 08, 2020	316	McNeese St.	W	69-64	68%
Jan 11, 2020	291	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	64-61	61%
Jan 18, 2020	299	SE Louisiana	W	65-61	63%
Jan 22, 2020	186	@ Sam Houston St.	L	62-70	25%
Jan 25, 2020	284	@ Central Arkansas	L	70-73	40%
Jan 29, 2020	290	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	65-68	40%
Feb 01, 2020	344	Incarnate Word	W	71-61	79%
Feb 05, 2020	347	@ Northwestern St.	W	68-64	63%
Feb 08, 2020	281	Lamar	W	69-66	59%
Feb 12, 2020	292	Houston Baptist	W	78-75	61%
Feb 15, 2020	291	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	61-64	41%
Feb 19, 2020	292	@ Houston Baptist	L	75-78	42%
Feb 22, 2020	299	@ SE Louisiana	L	62-64	43%
Feb 26, 2020	186	Sam Houston St.	L	65-67	44%
Feb 29, 2020	284	Central Arkansas	W	73-70	60%
Mar 03, 2020	290	Stephen F. Austin	W	68-65	61%
Mar 07, 2020	344	@ Incarnate Word	W	68-64	62%
Projected Record						12 - 15	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	2.3	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1		8.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.5	2.7	3.1	1.4	0.5	0.1				9.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.5	3.9	2.9	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0				9.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	1.7	3.9	3.1	0.7	0.1							9.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	1.2	3.7	3.1	0.7	0.0								8.9	5th
6th									0.1	1.0	3.6	3.5	0.7	0.0									8.9	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	3.3	3.6	0.9	0.1	0.0									8.6	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.6	3.9	1.3	0.1											8.4	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.1	3.2	1.5	0.1												7.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.7	3.0	1.6	0.2													6.9	10th
11th				0.1	0.5	1.6	2.3	1.4	0.2	0.0													6.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.0														4.8	12th
13th	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0															2.7	13th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.6	4.0	5.7	7.2	8.3	10.0	9.9	10.0	9.5	9.3	7.0	6.1	3.9	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
18-2	95.7%	1.2		1.0	0.1
17-3	81.8%	2.1		1.7	0.4	0.0
16-4	59.6%	2.3		1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0
15-5	30.6%	1.9		0.7	0.7	0.4	0.0
14-6	9.5%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0			0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.8%	8.8		5.6	2.3	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		44.6%	44.6%		13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
19-1	0.5%		54.9%	54.9%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2
18-2	1.2%		42.8%	42.8%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.7
17-3	2.5%		41.2%	41.2%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	1.5
16-4	3.9%		31.0%	31.0%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	2.7
15-5	6.1%		21.4%	21.4%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.9	4.8
14-6	7.0%		18.5%	18.5%		15.9															0.0	0.2	1.1	5.7
13-7	9.3%		9.1%	9.1%		15.9																0.0	0.8	8.5
12-8	9.5%		5.4%	5.4%		16.0																0.0	0.5	9.0
11-9	10.0%		3.4%	3.4%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.7
10-10	9.9%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.2	9.8
9-11	10.0%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.0
8-12	8.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.3
7-13	7.2%																							7.2
6-14	5.7%																							5.7
5-15	4.0%																							4.0
4-16	2.6%																							2.6
3-17	1.2%																							1.2
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.6%	7.6%	0.0%	15.4												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.8	4.8	92.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%