Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#89
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.4#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 2.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 15.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.5% 11.8% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 10.2
.500 or above 71.3% 75.2% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 55.7% 36.3%
Conference Champion 4.8% 5.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 4.2% 9.2%
First Four3.7% 4.1% 1.6%
First Round12.0% 13.3% 3.8%
Second Round5.4% 6.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 35 - 310 - 13
Quad 48 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 216   Jacksonville St. W 73-62 86%    
  Nov 12, 2019 243   New Orleans W 75-62 89%    
  Nov 16, 2019 303   Jackson St. W 73-56 94%    
  Nov 18, 2019 182   @ Evansville W 71-67 64%    
  Nov 23, 2019 146   @ UNLV W 70-69 55%    
  Nov 27, 2019 321   Hartford W 77-59 95%    
  Nov 29, 2019 286   Abilene Christian W 72-57 91%    
  Dec 03, 2019 347   Northwestern St. W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 07, 2019 54   Georgetown L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 20, 2019 62   @ Georgia L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 23, 2019 162   Georgia St. W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 01, 2020 79   South Florida W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 04, 2020 124   @ Vanderbilt L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 08, 2020 94   Central Florida W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 203   @ East Carolina W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 15, 2020 32   @ Houston L 62-72 21%    
  Jan 18, 2020 83   Temple W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 22, 2020 203   East Carolina W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 25, 2020 26   @ Memphis L 72-82 20%    
  Jan 28, 2020 29   @ Cincinnati L 59-69 20%    
  Feb 01, 2020 242   Tulane W 77-64 86%    
  Feb 08, 2020 83   @ Temple L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 12, 2020 73   Connecticut W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 32   Houston L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 19, 2020 242   @ Tulane W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 22, 2020 100   @ Tulsa L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 25, 2020 26   Memphis L 75-79 38%    
  Mar 01, 2020 58   Wichita St. L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 04, 2020 94   @ Central Florida L 64-66 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 79   @ South Florida L 65-69 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 5.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 6.5 9.0 11.1 11.6 11.9 11.1 9.9 7.7 5.5 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 96.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 68.8% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1
14-4 40.3% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 98.2% 41.4% 56.8% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
16-2 0.8% 96.2% 29.2% 67.0% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
15-3 2.0% 91.9% 23.3% 68.6% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.5%
14-4 3.4% 74.2% 15.5% 58.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 69.5%
13-5 5.5% 53.4% 12.8% 40.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.6 46.6%
12-6 7.7% 31.7% 7.5% 24.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 26.2%
11-7 9.9% 15.4% 4.1% 11.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 11.8%
10-8 11.1% 7.8% 3.4% 4.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.2 4.5%
9-9 11.9% 3.1% 1.6% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 1.5%
8-10 11.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.1%
7-11 11.1% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
5-13 6.5% 6.5
4-14 4.5% 4.5
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.0% 3.8% 10.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 86.0 10.5%