Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.0#77
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 17.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 6.8% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.7
.500 or above 74.2% 82.9% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 83.2% 70.3%
Conference Champion 11.0% 13.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four2.4% 3.1% 1.2%
First Round12.8% 15.9% 7.4%
Second Round4.3% 5.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 48 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 110   Utah W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 09, 2019 149   Loyola Marymount W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 12, 2019 135   Texas Arlington W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 16, 2019 64   USC L 77-78 47%    
  Nov 19, 2019 52   @ Davidson L 67-75 24%    
  Nov 22, 2019 233   Fordham W 73-64 77%    
  Dec 04, 2019 128   Santa Clara W 75-69 68%    
  Dec 07, 2019 170   @ Air Force W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 10, 2019 67   @ BYU L 78-84 30%    
  Dec 18, 2019 265   Texas Southern W 91-78 87%    
  Dec 21, 2019 19   St. Mary's L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 01, 2020 179   Colorado St. W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 04, 2020 90   Boise St. W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 08, 2020 330   @ San Jose St. W 82-69 86%    
  Jan 11, 2020 34   @ Utah St. L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 14, 2020 275   Wyoming W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 18, 2020 77   @ San Diego St. L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 22, 2020 146   UNLV W 78-71 71%    
  Jan 25, 2020 92   New Mexico W 85-82 58%    
  Jan 29, 2020 179   @ Colorado St. W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 01, 2020 90   @ Boise St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 04, 2020 170   Air Force W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 330   San Jose St. W 85-66 94%    
  Feb 12, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 18, 2020 92   @ New Mexico L 82-85 39%    
  Feb 22, 2020 118   Fresno St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 25, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 77   San Diego St. W 73-72 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.3 2.8 1.5 0.3 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 5.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 4.8 1.5 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.8 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 11.0 12.8 12.7 11.3 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 96.8% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-2 79.0% 2.8    2.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 53.0% 3.3    1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.0% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 87.0% 54.1% 32.9% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.6%
17-1 1.6% 82.1% 46.8% 35.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 66.4%
16-2 3.5% 64.2% 32.2% 32.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 47.2%
15-3 6.2% 45.9% 26.2% 19.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 26.8%
14-4 9.0% 27.3% 17.6% 9.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 11.8%
13-5 11.3% 18.4% 14.0% 4.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2 5.1%
12-6 12.7% 10.2% 9.4% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.4 0.8%
11-7 12.8% 5.8% 5.4% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.4%
10-8 11.0% 4.1% 3.9% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.2%
9-9 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-10 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 9.5% 4.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.4 3.1 4.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 86.0 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.6 25.8 1.6