Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#64
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#79
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 4.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 8.7% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.1% 34.3% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.5% 28.7% 7.2%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 9.3
.500 or above 80.4% 80.8% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 64.7% 34.7%
Conference Champion 8.4% 8.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.3% 9.4%
First Four6.4% 6.4% 2.6%
First Round30.7% 31.0% 6.5%
Second Round16.1% 16.2% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 5.6% 2.4%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.1% 0.7%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 46 - 10
Quad 36 - 212 - 11
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 341   Florida A&M W 81-56 99%    
  Nov 08, 2019 285   Portland W 83-65 96%    
  Nov 12, 2019 224   South Dakota St. W 88-73 91%    
  Nov 16, 2019 95   @ Nevada W 78-77 53%    
  Nov 19, 2019 117   Pepperdine W 85-77 75%    
  Nov 22, 2019 83   Temple W 79-74 67%    
  Nov 28, 2019 288   Fairfield W 82-66 91%    
  Dec 06, 2019 68   @ TCU L 75-78 41%    
  Dec 15, 2019 289   Long Beach St. W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 21, 2019 20   LSU L 78-82 35%    
  Dec 29, 2019 257   Florida Gulf Coast W 83-66 93%    
  Jan 02, 2020 157   @ Washington St. W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 05, 2020 44   @ Washington L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 11, 2020 82   @ UCLA L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 16, 2020 166   California W 80-68 84%    
  Jan 18, 2020 113   Stanford W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 23, 2020 16   @ Oregon L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 25, 2020 74   @ Oregon St. L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 30, 2020 110   Utah W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 01, 2020 40   Colorado W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 06, 2020 31   @ Arizona L 71-78 29%    
  Feb 08, 2020 65   @ Arizona St. L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 13, 2020 44   Washington W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 157   Washington St. W 86-75 82%    
  Feb 20, 2020 40   @ Colorado L 72-78 33%    
  Feb 23, 2020 110   @ Utah W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 27, 2020 31   Arizona L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 29, 2020 65   Arizona St. W 82-79 61%    
  Mar 07, 2020 82   UCLA W 85-80 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.2 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.5 10.4 11.5 11.8 11.1 10.1 7.9 5.7 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-2 90.8% 1.6    1.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.6% 2.7    1.6 0.9 0.1
14-4 37.9% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 63.1% 36.9% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 2.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 99.9% 40.1% 59.8% 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 3.7% 98.0% 29.9% 68.1% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
14-4 5.7% 93.6% 23.1% 70.4% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 91.6%
13-5 7.9% 83.6% 16.1% 67.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.3 80.5%
12-6 10.1% 63.9% 10.8% 53.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.7 59.5%
11-7 11.1% 42.6% 6.8% 35.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.0 6.4 38.3%
10-8 11.8% 25.0% 5.1% 19.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 8.8 21.0%
9-9 11.5% 11.3% 2.6% 8.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.2 9.0%
8-10 10.4% 2.8% 1.2% 1.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.7%
7-11 8.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.3%
6-12 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0%
5-13 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 34.1% 7.9% 26.2% 8.4 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.3 5.1 6.5 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.9 28.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 59.5 40.5