Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#297
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#198
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 12.2% 22.8% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 24.6% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 34.6% 25.5% 38.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 140   UAB L 65-71 30%    
  Nov 12, 2019 235   Chattanooga L 70-71 47%    
  Nov 16, 2019 47   @ Indiana L 59-80 3%    
  Nov 20, 2019 61   @ Texas A&M L 61-80 4%    
  Nov 23, 2019 142   @ Samford L 69-81 15%    
  Nov 25, 2019 352   @ Alabama A&M W 69-62 73%    
  Dec 04, 2019 313   North Alabama W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 11, 2019 216   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-73 25%    
  Dec 15, 2019 235   @ Chattanooga L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 19, 2019 172   Coastal Carolina L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 21, 2019 212   Appalachian St. L 76-78 45%    
  Jan 02, 2020 223   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 04, 2020 202   @ Louisiana L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 06, 2020 156   @ Texas St. L 61-72 18%    
  Jan 09, 2020 220   Arkansas Little Rock L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 11, 2020 271   @ Arkansas St. L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 16, 2020 122   Georgia Southern L 74-82 26%    
  Jan 18, 2020 162   Georgia St. L 71-76 35%    
  Jan 22, 2020 220   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 25, 2020 271   Arkansas St. W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 30, 2020 122   @ Georgia Southern L 71-85 13%    
  Feb 01, 2020 162   @ Georgia St. L 68-79 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 138   South Alabama L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 13, 2020 223   Louisiana Monroe L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 15, 2020 202   Louisiana L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 20, 2020 172   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-79 21%    
  Feb 22, 2020 212   @ Appalachian St. L 73-81 27%    
  Feb 29, 2020 138   @ South Alabama L 65-77 16%    
  Mar 03, 2020 135   Texas Arlington L 66-72 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.5 5.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 17.9 11th
12th 1.5 4.2 6.4 6.9 4.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 25.7 12th
Total 1.5 4.2 7.2 9.9 11.2 11.7 11.6 10.2 8.9 7.1 5.6 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 81.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 67.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 43.4% 43.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 28.7% 28.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 23.6% 23.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.0% 5.9% 5.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 1.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-8 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
11-9 3.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
10-10 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
9-11 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
8-12 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.6
5-15 11.7% 11.7
4-16 11.2% 11.2
3-17 9.9% 9.9
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 4.2% 4.2
0-20 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%