Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#306
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 32.3% 48.1% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.5% 45.0% 27.9%
Conference Champion 3.9% 6.1% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 21.4% 14.5% 25.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round4.0% 6.0% 2.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 86 - 13
Quad 47 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 112   Toledo L 65-68 38%    
  Nov 09, 2019 141   @ Saint Louis L 60-66 28%    
  Nov 12, 2019 324   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-67 68%    
  Nov 17, 2019 262   North Dakota W 72-66 71%    
  Nov 22, 2019 137   Grand Canyon L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 03, 2019 222   @ Eastern Michigan L 60-62 43%    
  Dec 08, 2019 154   Central Michigan W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 16, 2019 276   @ Charlotte W 63-62 54%    
  Dec 18, 2019 308   @ High Point W 63-60 61%    
  Dec 21, 2019 57   @ Arkansas L 64-79 11%    
  Dec 30, 2019 109   Loyola Chicago L 58-61 39%    
  Jan 04, 2020 182   @ Evansville L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 07, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois L 62-65 42%    
  Jan 11, 2020 145   Drake L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 15, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 57-66 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 23, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 61-69 25%    
  Jan 26, 2020 182   Evansville W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 29, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 60-67 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 05, 2020 114   Northern Iowa L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 09, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-64 22%    
  Feb 12, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 15, 2020 187   @ Illinois St. L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 19, 2020 145   @ Drake L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2020 136   Bradley L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 25, 2020 125   Missouri St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 29, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. L 66-72 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.5 2.7 0.3 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.6 2.0 3.6 4.0 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.7 10th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.0 6.2 8.3 10.6 11.6 11.8 10.5 9.5 7.7 6.0 4.9 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 92.6% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 81.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 60.6% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.4% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 87.0% 69.6% 17.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1%
17-1 0.1% 53.5% 40.1% 13.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.4%
16-2 0.4% 50.8% 45.1% 5.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.3%
15-3 1.0% 29.8% 28.9% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3%
14-4 1.8% 26.8% 25.9% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1.2%
13-5 3.1% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.0%
12-6 4.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-7 6.0% 9.1% 9.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.5
10-8 7.7% 6.1% 6.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.2
9-9 9.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.1
8-10 10.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3
7-11 11.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.7
6-12 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.3
3-15 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-16 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 95.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%