IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.8	#182
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.3	#92
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.2	#245

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#150

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.2%	7.3%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.6	13.2	14.1

.500 or above	33.6%	47.7%	23.3%
.500 or above in Conference	39.2%	48.8%	32.2%
Conference Champion	5.2%	7.6%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	19.3%	13.7%	23.4%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
First Round	5.0%	7.1%	3.5%
Second Round	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 8	6 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 3	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	120	Ball St.	L	73-75	42%
Nov 12, 2019	2	@ Kentucky	L	58-82	1%
Nov 18, 2019	89	SMU	L	67-71	36%
Nov 22, 2019	203	East Carolina	W	74-73	52%
Nov 30, 2019	253	@ IUPUI	W	74-73	51%
Dec 04, 2019	283	Western Illinois	W	76-68	76%
Dec 07, 2019	150	Miami (OH)	W	71-70	52%
Dec 14, 2019	167	@ Green Bay	L	78-83	35%
Dec 16, 2019	216	@ Jacksonville St.	L	69-71	44%
Dec 21, 2019	119	Murray St.	L	73-75	43%
Dec 31, 2019	125	@ Missouri St.	L	66-74	26%
Jan 04, 2020	199	Valparaiso	W	69-65	62%
Jan 08, 2020	136	Bradley	L	67-68	49%
Jan 11, 2020	109	@ Loyola Chicago	L	60-69	23%
Jan 15, 2020	158	@ Indiana St.	L	72-77	34%
Jan 18, 2020	125	Missouri St.	L	69-71	45%
Jan 22, 2020	145	Drake	W	74-73	50%
Jan 26, 2020	199	@ Valparaiso	L	66-68	42%
Jan 29, 2020	187	@ Illinois St.	L	68-71	41%
Feb 01, 2020	114	Northern Iowa	L	65-67	42%
Feb 05, 2020	207	Southern Illinois	W	70-66	64%
Feb 09, 2020	136	@ Bradley	L	65-71	30%
Feb 12, 2020	109	Loyola Chicago	L	63-66	41%
Feb 16, 2020	145	@ Drake	L	71-77	32%
Feb 20, 2020	207	@ Southern Illinois	L	67-69	43%
Feb 23, 2020	158	Indiana St.	W	75-74	53%
Feb 26, 2020	114	@ Northern Iowa	L	62-70	25%
Feb 29, 2020	187	Illinois St.	W	71-68	60%
Projected Record						12 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.5	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0		5.2	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.3	2.3	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.0				6.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.7	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.0					7.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.2	4.0	2.2	0.4	0.0							9.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	4.8	2.5	0.3	0.0								10.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.6	5.1	2.7	0.4	0.0									11.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.6	5.2	2.9	0.4	0.0										11.6	7th
8th				0.1	0.9	3.2	4.9	2.9	0.4	0.0											12.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	2.0	3.9	4.5	2.1	0.3	0.0												13.1	9th
10th	0.5	1.8	3.0	3.5	3.0	1.1	0.1	0.0													12.9	10th

Total	0.5	1.8	3.3	5.6	7.8	9.4	10.1	11.2	11.1	10.3	8.8	6.9	5.2	3.5	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	98.2%	0.6		0.5	0.1
15-3	85.3%	1.0		0.8	0.2	0.0
14-4	63.4%	1.5		0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	35.3%	1.2		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	9.4%	0.5		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.2%	5.2		3.1	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		75.0%	28.1%	46.9%	5.4		0.0	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0		65.2%
17-1	0.2%		53.7%	45.4%	8.2%	10.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		15.1%
16-2	0.6%		46.6%	35.7%	10.9%	11.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3		16.9%
15-3	1.2%		30.2%	28.5%	1.7%	12.4									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.8		2.4%
14-4	2.3%		23.4%	22.6%	0.8%	12.8												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.8		1.0%
13-5	3.5%		17.7%	17.4%	0.2%	13.1												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0		2.9		0.3%
12-6	5.2%		14.9%	14.9%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	4.4		0.0%
11-7	6.9%		10.9%	10.9%		14.0													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	6.2
10-8	8.8%		8.4%	8.4%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	8.1
9-9	10.3%		3.4%	3.4%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.0
8-10	11.1%		2.9%	2.9%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	10.8
7-11	11.2%		1.2%	1.2%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.1
6-12	10.1%		0.7%	0.7%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.1
5-13	9.4%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	9.3
4-14	7.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	7.7
3-15	5.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
2-16	3.3%																							3.3
1-17	1.8%																							1.8
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		5.2%	5.0%	0.1%	13.6		0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.8	1.2	1.4	1.0	0.5	94.8		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%