Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#102
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.5% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 62.5% 65.9% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.9% 63.1% 40.7%
Conference Champion 12.1% 13.0% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.5% 16.6%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round10.5% 11.2% 4.5%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 49 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 81-67 90%    
  Nov 11, 2019 29   @ Cincinnati L 61-75 9%    
  Nov 13, 2019 234   UMKC W 76-68 77%    
  Nov 21, 2019 227   Lehigh W 84-76 75%    
  Nov 25, 2019 150   Miami (OH) W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 03, 2019 250   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 07, 2019 294   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 14, 2019 60   @ Dayton L 65-76 17%    
  Dec 21, 2019 170   @ Air Force L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 31, 2019 136   @ Bradley L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 04, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 07, 2020 109   Loyola Chicago W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 11, 2020 199   @ Valparaiso W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 15, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 19, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 22, 2020 182   @ Evansville L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 26, 2020 125   Missouri St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 29, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 01, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 05, 2020 136   Bradley W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 08, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 12, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 16, 2020 182   Evansville W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 19, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 22, 2020 187   @ Illinois St. L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 25, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 114   Northern Iowa W 68-67 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.3 8.9 9.8 11.4 11.0 10.7 9.2 7.0 5.5 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.5% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 84.4% 2.9    2.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 59.4% 3.2    1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.7% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 11.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.7 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 84.5% 63.6% 20.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.4%
17-1 0.8% 63.2% 46.8% 16.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 30.8%
16-2 1.8% 51.5% 42.9% 8.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 15.1%
15-3 3.4% 39.5% 35.9% 3.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 5.7%
14-4 5.5% 27.6% 26.7% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0 1.2%
13-5 7.0% 24.0% 23.7% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.4%
12-6 9.2% 15.9% 15.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 0.1%
11-7 10.7% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.6
10-8 11.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 10.0
9-9 11.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.9
8-10 9.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.6
7-11 8.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.7
6-12 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
5-13 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.8% 10.2% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.6 0.5 89.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 48.3 51.7