Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#338
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#276
Pace70.3#154
Improvement+2.7#61

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#333
First Shot-6.8#337
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#167
Layup/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#289
Freethrows-1.6#294
Improvement-0.2#190

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#322
First Shot-5.3#325
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#188
Layups/Dunks-3.4#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#260
Freethrows+0.9#133
Improvement+2.9#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.9% 10.6% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 50.4% 23.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 3.1% 12.2%
First Four3.2% 4.1% 2.1%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Neutral) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 411 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 232   @ Tennessee St. L 66-106 15%     0 - 1 -41.2 -14.2 -23.2
  Nov 11, 2019 174   @ UAB L 52-74 9%     0 - 2 -19.5 -17.4 -2.4
  Nov 14, 2019 47   @ Cincinnati L 53-85 2%     0 - 3 -19.2 -17.1 +1.3
  Nov 16, 2019 191   @ Miami (OH) L 63-79 11%     0 - 4 -14.8 -8.9 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2019 70   @ Clemson L 51-87 3%     0 - 5 -25.4 -15.1 -9.6
  Nov 25, 2019 276   @ Troy W 80-66 20%     1 - 5 +10.4 +12.3 -0.8
  Dec 07, 2019 235   Jacksonville St. W 67-62 OT 30%     2 - 5 -2.1 -14.2 +11.6
  Dec 14, 2019 87   @ Miami (FL) L 74-88 3%     2 - 6 -4.8 +3.7 -8.7
  Dec 17, 2019 183   @ South Alabama L 79-89 9%     2 - 7 -7.8 -1.8 -5.0
  Dec 20, 2019 292   North Alabama W 92-80 42%     3 - 7 +1.7 +13.3 -12.0
  Dec 29, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame L 56-82 2%     3 - 8 -13.9 -13.9 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2020 293   @ Grambling St. L 60-70 24%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -14.8 -17.5 +3.3
  Jan 06, 2020 327   @ Jackson St. W 66-57 32%     4 - 9 1 - 1 +1.5 -6.0 +7.8
  Jan 11, 2020 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 59-49 66%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -6.7 -8.6 +3.4
  Jan 13, 2020 351   Mississippi Valley L 66-72 83%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -28.8 -16.1 -12.9
  Jan 18, 2020 343   Alabama St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 25, 2020 332   @ Alcorn St. L 69-73 34%    
  Jan 27, 2020 335   @ Southern L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 01, 2020 263   Texas Southern L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 03, 2020 223   Prairie View L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 08, 2020 344   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 10, 2020 351   @ Mississippi Valley W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 343   @ Alabama St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 332   Alcorn St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 24, 2020 335   Southern W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 29, 2020 263   @ Texas Southern L 72-82 19%    
  Mar 02, 2020 223   @ Prairie View L 64-76 14%    
  Mar 05, 2020 293   Grambling St. L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 07, 2020 327   Jackson St. W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.9 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.6 7.0 2.8 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.3 7.9 4.1 0.3 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.2 4.8 0.6 0.0 17.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.9 5.0 0.6 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.9 8.7 13.5 17.3 17.2 15.2 10.9 6.9 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 86.5% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 45.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 13.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 17.7% 17.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-5 1.2% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.2 1.0
12-6 3.2% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.4 2.9
11-7 6.9% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.5 6.4
10-8 10.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.6 10.3
9-9 15.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 14.6
8-10 17.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 16.7
7-11 17.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.1
6-12 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%