UAB
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#182
Pace62.9#326
Improvement-0.7#208

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#229
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks+1.4#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#337
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement+0.0#168

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot+0.4#147
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#171
Layups/Dunks+6.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#282
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-0.7#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 71.0% 90.4% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.1% 64.1% 22.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.2% 2.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 283   @ Troy W 76-75 59%     1 - 0 -2.8 +6.6 -9.4
  Nov 11, 2019 343   Alabama A&M W 74-52 92%     2 - 0 +5.0 -4.0 +9.3
  Nov 15, 2019 258   Utah Valley L 55-66 75%     2 - 1 -19.4 -18.9 -0.7
  Nov 20, 2019 271   Mount St. Mary's W 58-51 76%     3 - 1 -1.9 -8.4 +7.6
  Nov 26, 2019 278   Lamar W 57-48 78%     4 - 1 -0.5 -14.2 +14.3
  Nov 29, 2019 12   @ Kentucky L 58-69 5%     4 - 2 +6.8 -0.6 +6.3
  Dec 03, 2019 63   @ Texas L 57-67 12%     4 - 3 +1.0 +0.7 -1.3
  Dec 07, 2019 54   Memphis L 57-65 22%     4 - 4 -1.5 -8.4 +6.8
  Dec 17, 2019 284   North Alabama W 63-56 78%     5 - 4 -2.8 -5.6 +3.5
  Dec 21, 2019 341   Alabama St. W 71-63 85%     6 - 4 -4.8 -5.5 +0.9
  Dec 22, 2019 110   Duquesne W 77-68 29%     7 - 4 +13.3 +6.0 +7.1
  Jan 02, 2020 155   @ Charlotte L 44-51 32%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -3.8 -17.0 +12.1
  Jan 04, 2020 163   @ Old Dominion L 52-58 33%     7 - 6 0 - 2 -3.1 -7.6 +3.6
  Jan 09, 2020 103   Western Kentucky W 72-62 37%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +11.8 +3.9 +8.7
  Jan 11, 2020 157   Marshall W 61-50 55%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +8.3 -12.3 +20.7
  Jan 16, 2020 166   @ Florida International L 68-93 34%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -22.2 -1.8 -21.7
  Jan 18, 2020 186   @ Florida Atlantic W 68-65 38%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +4.8 -4.6 +9.3
  Jan 23, 2020 251   Southern Miss L 77-84 73%     10 - 8 3 - 4 -15.0 +4.8 -20.2
  Jan 25, 2020 82   Louisiana Tech L 58-72 31%     10 - 9 3 - 5 -10.2 -11.1 +0.4
  Jan 30, 2020 167   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 01, 2020 153   @ UTEP L 59-64 32%    
  Feb 06, 2020 244   Rice W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 87   North Texas L 59-64 32%    
  Feb 12, 2020 286   Middle Tennessee W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 15, 2020 286   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-65 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 1.3 3.7 4th
5th 2.7 4.7 0.4 7.9 5th
6th 0.3 9.0 2.5 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 4.0 10.0 0.3 14.2 7th
8th 0.4 11.1 3.0 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 3.7 11.7 0.4 15.8 9th
10th 0.8 10.7 4.3 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 0.0 3.8 6.9 0.2 10.9 11th
12th 0.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.7 0.5 1.2 13th
14th 0.4 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 1.4 7.8 22.1 31.6 25.2 9.9 2.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 2.1% 5.7% 5.7% 13.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
8-6 9.9% 2.4% 2.4% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6
7-7 25.2% 1.0% 1.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 24.9
6-8 31.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 31.2
5-9 22.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.1 0.1 21.9
4-10 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-11 1.4% 1.4
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 1.4%