Cincinnati
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#59
Pace67.5#242
Improvement-0.3#229

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#47
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#42
Layup/Dunks+2.7#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#236
Freethrows+2.5#62
Improvement-0.6#265

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#20
First Shot+6.1#35
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#96
Layups/Dunks+0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#11
Freethrows-1.0#231
Improvement+0.2#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.5% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 7.6% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.8% 19.3% 7.6%
Top 6 Seed 31.2% 33.4% 16.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.8% 73.1% 55.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.9% 63.6% 44.1%
Average Seed 7.0 6.9 8.0
.500 or above 96.5% 97.2% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.3% 92.0%
Conference Champion 33.0% 34.5% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 8.3% 6.0%
First Round66.9% 69.1% 52.4%
Second Round43.1% 45.7% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.9% 22.4% 10.5%
Elite Eight9.6% 10.4% 4.2%
Final Four3.5% 3.8% 2.0%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Neutral) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 28 - 7
Quad 39 - 117 - 8
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 10   @ Ohio St. L 56-64 24%     0 - 1 +12.1 -1.0 +12.4
  Nov 11, 2019 130   Drake W 81-59 90%     1 - 1 +21.1 +6.5 +14.5
  Nov 14, 2019 351   Alabama A&M W 85-53 99.6%    2 - 1 +10.2 -5.4 +12.2
  Nov 22, 2019 161   Illinois St. W 74-61 87%    
  Nov 30, 2019 146   UNLV W 75-60 91%    
  Dec 03, 2019 79   Vermont W 69-60 79%    
  Dec 07, 2019 35   @ Xavier L 66-68 46%    
  Dec 14, 2019 140   Colgate W 77-63 91%    
  Dec 18, 2019 19   Tennessee W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 21, 2019 62   Iowa W 77-73 67%    
  Jan 01, 2020 85   Connecticut W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 04, 2020 211   @ Tulane W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 08, 2020 132   Tulsa W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 11, 2020 117   @ Central Florida W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 16, 2020 16   @ Memphis L 75-79 34%    
  Jan 19, 2020 239   East Carolina W 79-59 96%    
  Jan 22, 2020 86   @ Temple W 71-67 67%    
  Jan 28, 2020 100   SMU W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 42   Houston W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 06, 2020 57   @ Wichita St. W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 09, 2020 85   @ Connecticut W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 13, 2020 16   Memphis W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 16, 2020 239   @ East Carolina W 76-62 88%    
  Feb 19, 2020 117   Central Florida W 72-59 88%    
  Feb 23, 2020 57   Wichita St. W 70-63 73%    
  Mar 01, 2020 42   @ Houston L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 03, 2020 138   @ South Florida W 69-61 76%    
  Mar 07, 2020 86   Temple W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.1 4.9 10.0 8.8 5.8 1.3 33.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 7.3 9.1 4.6 0.6 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 6.3 4.9 1.5 0.2 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.6 0.3 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.4 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.2 3.5 6th
7th 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 1.9 3.3 7.7 10.8 11.7 14.7 15.5 14.8 9.3 5.8 1.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 5.8    5.7 0.1
16-2 94.1% 8.8    7.5 1.3
15-3 67.5% 10.0    6.1 3.4 0.4
14-4 31.7% 4.9    1.8 2.2 0.9
13-5 14.6% 2.1    0.3 0.8 1.0 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 22.7 7.8 2.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 81.0% 19.0% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.8% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.3% 98.6% 41.0% 57.5% 4.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.5%
15-3 14.8% 99.0% 34.5% 64.6% 5.8 0.1 0.2 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.5%
14-4 15.5% 90.9% 30.0% 60.9% 7.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.3 0.3 1.4 87.0%
13-5 14.7% 81.7% 23.0% 58.7% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 2.7 76.2%
12-6 11.7% 62.5% 18.0% 44.5% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.4 54.2%
11-7 10.8% 40.7% 12.5% 28.1% 10.6 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 0.6 6.4 32.2%
10-8 7.7% 22.6% 8.7% 13.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 6.0 15.2%
9-9 3.3% 6.6% 2.3% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0 4.4%
8-10 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 1.9% 3.5% 0.3% 3.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 3.2%
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.8% 25.2% 45.6% 7.0 3.1 3.7 4.7 6.4 7.5 5.9 6.9 5.8 6.5 7.7 9.8 2.9 0.1 0.0 29.2 60.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 71.6 28.4