Cincinnati
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#49
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#89
Pace69.6#175
Improvement+2.1#85

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#93
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#22
Layup/Dunks+4.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows+2.0#47
Improvement+0.6#136

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#28
First Shot+6.6#27
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#141
Layups/Dunks+2.8#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#67
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement+1.4#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 29.8% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.7% 19.4% 7.5%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.5
.500 or above 93.1% 94.1% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 89.6% 67.9%
Conference Champion 12.8% 13.4% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.7%
First Four6.6% 6.9% 2.9%
First Round25.7% 26.5% 13.2%
Second Round11.7% 12.2% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 4.2% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 7
Quad 25 - 27 - 9
Quad 39 - 316 - 13
Quad 43 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 56-64 23%     0 - 1 +9.5 -3.6 +12.4
  Nov 11, 2019 143   Drake W 81-59 85%     1 - 1 +20.6 +7.0 +13.5
  Nov 14, 2019 337   Alabama A&M W 85-53 98%     2 - 1 +16.7 -3.8 +17.1
  Nov 22, 2019 206   Illinois St. W 66-65 88%     3 - 1 -1.8 -6.0 +4.2
  Nov 24, 2019 152   Bowling Green L 84-91 OT 80%     3 - 2 -6.0 -10.3 +5.9
  Nov 25, 2019 171   Valparaiso W 81-77 OT 83%     4 - 2 +3.7 -3.1 +6.2
  Nov 30, 2019 137   UNLV W 72-65 OT 85%     5 - 2 +6.0 -11.6 +16.7
  Dec 03, 2019 81   Vermont W 82-73 72%     6 - 2 +12.8 +16.1 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 66-73 41%     6 - 3 +5.2 -1.5 +6.9
  Dec 14, 2019 127   Colgate L 66-67 84%     6 - 4 -1.5 -4.1 +2.5
  Dec 18, 2019 57   Tennessee W 78-66 65%     7 - 4 +17.9 +13.4 +5.0
  Dec 21, 2019 15   Iowa L 70-77 33%     7 - 5 +7.3 -6.5 +14.5
  Jan 01, 2020 78   Connecticut W 67-51 71%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +20.0 -0.3 +20.8
  Jan 04, 2020 168   @ Tulane L 71-76 75%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -2.2 +1.4 -3.8
  Jan 08, 2020 97   Tulsa W 75-44 77%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +33.2 +4.8 +28.3
  Jan 11, 2020 108   @ Central Florida W 68-54 61%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +21.0 +8.8 +13.8
  Jan 16, 2020 28   @ Memphis L 49-60 30%     10 - 7 3 - 2 +4.2 -10.4 +14.0
  Jan 19, 2020 222   East Carolina W 77-61 94%    
  Jan 22, 2020 74   @ Temple L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 28, 2020 82   SMU W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 01, 2020 34   Houston W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 06, 2020 38   @ Wichita St. L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 09, 2020 78   @ Connecticut W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 13, 2020 28   Memphis W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 16, 2020 222   @ East Carolina W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 19, 2020 108   Central Florida W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 23, 2020 38   Wichita St. W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 01, 2020 34   @ Houston L 66-71 33%    
  Mar 03, 2020 114   @ South Florida W 65-62 61%    
  Mar 07, 2020 74   Temple W 69-63 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.5 1.9 0.3 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 7.0 5.8 1.5 0.1 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.5 7.4 1.3 0.1 17.7 3rd
4th 0.7 6.4 8.3 1.8 0.1 17.3 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 7.4 2.1 0.1 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 5.7 2.5 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.2 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.2 7.1 12.7 18.0 19.8 17.6 11.7 6.1 2.0 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 95.8% 1.9    1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 74.4% 4.5    2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.9% 4.6    1.3 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.3% 1.5    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 5.9 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 98.5% 35.3% 63.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
15-3 2.0% 96.5% 31.3% 65.3% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.9%
14-4 6.1% 83.1% 23.4% 59.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.0 77.9%
13-5 11.7% 62.5% 20.0% 42.4% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.4 0.2 4.4 53.1%
12-6 17.6% 38.5% 16.4% 22.1% 10.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 0.6 10.8 26.5%
11-7 19.8% 21.5% 12.3% 9.2% 10.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 15.6 10.5%
10-8 18.0% 10.6% 8.2% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 16.1 2.6%
9-9 12.7% 6.7% 6.2% 0.5% 11.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.8 0.5%
8-10 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.8
7-11 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.8% 12.5% 16.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.9 6.3 10.6 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 71.2 18.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 12.5 41.7 25.0 20.8