Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.6#340
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#284
Pace74.7#73
Improvement-1.0#299

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#337
First Shot-8.8#341
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#110
Layup/Dunks-7.0#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#306
Freethrows-1.0#220
Improvement-0.8#297

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#309
First Shot-5.7#323
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#136
Layups/Dunks-9.3#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#14
Freethrows-0.8#218
Improvement-0.2#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 10.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 14.0% 46.2% 13.9%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 72.6% 48.6%
Conference Champion 4.1% 11.2% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 2.4% 6.6%
First Four4.2% 10.0% 4.1%
First Round2.0% 8.2% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 49 - 109 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 75   @ DePaul L 54-72 3%     0 - 1 -7.9 -17.6 +10.8
  Nov 09, 2019 237   @ Louisiana Monroe L 72-73 OT 14%     0 - 2 -2.0 -4.2 +2.3
  Nov 16, 2019 16   @ Memphis L 56-102 1%     0 - 3 -28.9 -21.8 +2.8
  Nov 19, 2019 38   @ North Carolina St. L 65-92 1%    
  Nov 27, 2019 171   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-79 8%    
  Dec 16, 2019 211   @ Tulane L 68-81 12%    
  Dec 29, 2019 136   @ Santa Clara L 64-81 6%    
  Jan 04, 2020 282   @ Prairie View L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 06, 2020 274   @ Texas Southern L 76-85 20%    
  Jan 11, 2020 315   Jackson St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 13, 2020 251   Grambling St. L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 18, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 88-83 65%    
  Jan 20, 2020 344   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 25, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 27, 2020 320   Alabama St. W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 343   @ Southern L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 315   @ Jackson St. L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 10, 2020 251   @ Grambling St. L 68-79 18%    
  Feb 15, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 91-80 82%    
  Feb 17, 2020 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2020 351   @ Alabama A&M W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 24, 2020 320   @ Alabama St. L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 29, 2020 343   Southern W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 05, 2020 282   Prairie View L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 07, 2020 274   Texas Southern L 79-82 38%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 3.3 1.3 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 3.8 1.1 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.0 4.4 0.9 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 4.3 2.1 0.3 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.5 9.9 11.7 12.8 12.7 11.4 8.8 6.9 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 95.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 82.7% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 50.6% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.8% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 37.6% 37.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.1
16-2 0.5% 35.4% 35.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.3
15-3 1.3% 28.0% 28.0% 16.0 0.4 0.9
14-4 2.5% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 0.5 2.0
13-5 4.5% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.6 3.9
12-6 6.9% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.7 6.2
11-7 8.8% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.6 8.2
10-8 11.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 10.9
9-9 12.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 12.3
8-10 12.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.5
7-11 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.8
5-13 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%