Tulane
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#134
Pace68.2#218
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#155
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#207
Layup/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#85
Freethrows+0.5#138
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#186
First Shot-1.6#217
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#113
Layups/Dunks-0.3#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#351
Freethrows+2.3#50
Improvement+0.2#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 21.3% 30.8% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 10.1% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 13.3% 45.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 74 - 11
Quad 32 - 56 - 17
Quad 48 - 114 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 315   SE Louisiana W 76-55 87%     1 - 0 +8.6 -8.9 +15.6
  Nov 12, 2019 328   Jackson St. W 88-79 89%     2 - 0 -4.4 +12.5 -16.6
  Nov 16, 2019 327   Northwestern St. W 79-52 89%     3 - 0 +13.7 -6.4 +17.9
  Nov 21, 2019 50   Mississippi St. L 66-80 18%     3 - 1 -4.3 -2.1 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2019 284   Middle Tennessee W 86-74 75%     4 - 1 +4.9 +7.4 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2019 106   Utah W 65-61 33%     5 - 1 +8.4 -2.4 +11.2
  Dec 01, 2019 335   Southern W 82-65 90%     6 - 1 +2.5 -1.5 +3.3
  Dec 04, 2019 264   @ Southern Miss W 61-56 61%     7 - 1 +2.1 -11.4 +13.6
  Dec 08, 2019 92   Saint Louis L 62-86 28%     7 - 2 -18.2 +0.2 -20.4
  Dec 16, 2019 332   Alcorn St. W 68-57 89%     8 - 2 -2.7 -9.8 +7.5
  Dec 20, 2019 87   Akron L 61-62 27%     8 - 3 +5.2 -8.5 +13.7
  Dec 21, 2019 178   Towson L 82-86 OT 52%     8 - 4 -4.6 +4.8 -9.3
  Dec 31, 2019 28   @ Memphis L 73-84 8%     8 - 5 0 - 1 +4.2 +7.5 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2020 49   Cincinnati W 76-71 25%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +12.0 +11.6 +0.6
  Jan 08, 2020 78   @ Connecticut L 61-67 17%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +3.8 +5.5 -2.7
  Jan 11, 2020 74   @ Temple W 65-51 17%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +24.0 +1.1 +23.0
  Jan 14, 2020 108   Central Florida L 55-74 45%     10 - 7 2 - 3 -17.8 -13.3 -5.1
  Jan 18, 2020 97   Tulsa L 54-67 41%     10 - 8 2 - 4 -10.8 -11.2 -0.6
  Jan 25, 2020 222   @ East Carolina W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 29, 2020 114   South Florida L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 01, 2020 82   @ SMU L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 06, 2020 34   @ Houston L 63-78 8%    
  Feb 08, 2020 222   East Carolina W 74-68 73%    
  Feb 12, 2020 74   Temple L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 16, 2020 38   @ Wichita St. L 61-76 8%    
  Feb 19, 2020 82   SMU L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 22, 2020 108   @ Central Florida L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 25, 2020 97   @ Tulsa L 62-70 22%    
  Feb 29, 2020 28   Memphis L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 08, 2020 78   Connecticut L 66-70 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.2 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.8 0.9 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.9 3.1 0.2 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 7.6 6.4 0.8 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 8.2 10.1 2.2 0.0 21.7 10th
11th 0.9 7.5 10.8 3.5 0.2 22.9 11th
12th 1.2 6.0 6.6 1.9 0.2 15.8 12th
Total 1.2 6.9 15.2 22.0 22.8 16.2 9.4 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 4.3
8-10 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2
6-12 22.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 22.7
5-13 22.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 22.0
4-14 15.2% 15.2
3-15 6.9% 6.9
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%