Cal Poly
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#311
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#293
Pace65.5#289
Improvement-0.1#191

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#274
First Shot-0.3#178
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#304
Layup/Dunks+3.2#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
Freethrows-3.6#323
Improvement+0.1#164

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#334
First Shot-4.1#290
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#306
Layups/Dunks-3.0#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#15
Freethrows-7.5#350
Improvement-0.1#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 5.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.0 15.8
.500 or above 3.2% 34.4% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 47.1% 16.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 5.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 37.5% 18.1% 37.8%
First Four0.9% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round0.9% 5.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 46 - 87 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 136   @ Santa Clara L 63-77 10%     0 - 1 -9.4 -8.5 -0.4
  Nov 11, 2019 163   @ North Dakota St. L 67-74 13%     0 - 2 -4.4 +1.0 -6.0
  Nov 17, 2019 36   @ St. Mary's L 53-77 1%    
  Nov 22, 2019 45   @ Creighton L 62-85 2%    
  Nov 24, 2019 62   @ Iowa L 66-87 2%    
  Nov 28, 2019 242   Tennessee St. L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 07, 2019 182   Siena L 69-74 29%    
  Dec 14, 2019 124   Fresno St. L 65-74 21%    
  Dec 18, 2019 265   @ Sacramento St. L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 21, 2019 221   Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-69 38%    
  Dec 28, 2019 48   @ San Diego St. L 57-80 3%    
  Jan 08, 2020 168   UC Santa Barbara L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 11, 2020 291   Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 17, 2020 206   @ Hawaii L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 23, 2020 273   @ UC Riverside L 59-66 26%    
  Jan 25, 2020 95   @ UC Irvine L 60-78 5%    
  Jan 30, 2020 218   Cal St. Fullerton L 68-72 40%    
  Feb 01, 2020 309   @ UC Davis L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 05, 2020 253   Long Beach St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 206   Hawaii L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 13, 2020 291   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 15, 2020 218   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-75 21%    
  Feb 20, 2020 309   UC Davis W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 22, 2020 273   UC Riverside L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 27, 2020 95   UC Irvine L 63-75 15%    
  Mar 05, 2020 253   @ Long Beach St. L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 07, 2020 168   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-75 16%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.2 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.2 0.3 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.0 2.9 0.4 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 6.4 4.6 0.5 14.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.8 7.0 4.6 0.5 0.0 16.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.9 8.1 4.4 0.5 0.1 20.4 8th
9th 1.7 5.3 8.3 6.6 2.7 0.8 25.4 9th
Total 1.7 5.4 9.8 13.2 14.7 14.6 12.8 10.8 7.1 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1
13-3 65.1% 0.1    0.1
12-4 42.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 18.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2
10-6 2.1% 0.1    0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 15.0 0.1 0.1
13-3 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0 0.1 0.4
11-5 1.4% 19.0% 19.0% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.2
10-6 2.8% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.3 2.6
9-7 4.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.6
8-8 7.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.0
7-9 10.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 10.5
6-10 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-11 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-12 14.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.6
3-13 13.2% 13.2
2-14 9.8% 9.8
1-15 5.4% 5.4
0-16 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%