Cal Poly
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#327
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#330
Pace68.0#227
Improvement+0.3#167

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#330
First Shot-4.1#302
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#314
Layup/Dunks-2.2#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows-1.4#279
Improvement-1.7#262

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#291
First Shot-3.0#275
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#269
Layups/Dunks+1.0#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#208
Freethrows-2.5#310
Improvement+1.9#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.9% 7.0% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.0% 55.6% 79.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 45 - 105 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 137   @ Santa Clara L 63-77 9%     0 - 1 -9.3 -9.4 +0.7
  Nov 11, 2019 150   @ North Dakota St. L 67-74 10%     0 - 2 -3.1 +0.3 -4.1
  Nov 17, 2019 37   @ St. Mary's L 48-79 2%     0 - 3 -16.6 -16.4 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2019 30   @ Creighton L 70-86 2%     0 - 4 -0.7 +2.3 -3.1
  Nov 24, 2019 15   @ Iowa L 59-85 1%     0 - 5 -8.9 -11.1 +2.9
  Nov 28, 2019 265   Tennessee St. L 72-82 32%     0 - 6 -15.6 -11.3 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2019 240   LIU Brooklyn L 69-82 29%     0 - 7 -17.6 -7.9 -9.4
  Dec 07, 2019 231   Siena W 70-66 37%     1 - 7 -2.8 +0.2 -2.6
  Dec 14, 2019 159   Fresno St. L 37-62 23%     1 - 8 -27.7 -34.6 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2019 209   @ Sacramento St. L 56-57 17%     1 - 9 -1.1 -5.7 +4.4
  Dec 21, 2019 234   Cal St. Bakersfield L 50-72 37%     1 - 10 -29.0 -19.7 -12.2
  Dec 28, 2019 13   @ San Diego St. L 57-73 1%     1 - 11 +1.6 -10.9 +13.9
  Jan 08, 2020 184   UC Santa Barbara L 45-63 27%     1 - 12 0 - 1 -21.9 -22.9 -2.8
  Jan 11, 2020 263   Cal St. Northridge W 74-56 42%     2 - 12 1 - 1 +9.6 -10.3 +19.0
  Jan 16, 2020 170   @ Hawaii L 61-65 12%     2 - 13 1 - 2 -1.5 -12.9 +11.6
  Jan 23, 2020 236   @ UC Riverside L 64-97 20%     2 - 14 1 - 3 -34.3 -6.5 -28.7
  Jan 25, 2020 122   @ UC Irvine L 67-74 7%     2 - 15 1 - 4 -1.2 +2.5 -4.2
  Jan 30, 2020 260   Cal St. Fullerton L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 01, 2020 252   @ UC Davis L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 05, 2020 297   Long Beach St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2020 170   Hawaii L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 13, 2020 263   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 15, 2020 260   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 20, 2020 252   UC Davis L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 22, 2020 236   UC Riverside L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 27, 2020 122   UC Irvine L 62-72 18%    
  Mar 05, 2020 297   @ Long Beach St. L 68-74 30%    
  Mar 07, 2020 184   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-72 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.2 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 0.8 4.5 5th
6th 0.3 4.1 2.1 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 5.8 0.4 11.1 7th
8th 0.9 7.0 10.5 2.2 0.0 20.6 8th
9th 3.1 11.4 18.9 15.4 4.2 0.1 53.1 9th
Total 3.1 11.4 19.8 22.7 19.6 12.9 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0% 0.0
10-6 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-8 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.7
7-9 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.7
6-10 12.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.7
5-11 19.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.4
4-12 22.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.7
3-13 19.8% 19.8
2-14 11.4% 11.4
1-15 3.1% 3.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%