Creighton
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#28
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#23
Pace70.4#143
Improvement+3.5#47

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#8
First Shot+9.4#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#21
Freethrows+2.1#43
Improvement+1.8#77

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#84
First Shot+4.1#69
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#234
Layups/Dunks+4.3#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#98
Freethrows+2.2#45
Improvement+1.6#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 7.6% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 21.8% 36.2% 14.6%
Top 6 Seed 54.6% 71.9% 45.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.9% 98.7% 92.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.1% 98.5% 92.0%
Average Seed 6.2 5.3 6.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 95.7% 84.6%
Conference Champion 6.0% 12.6% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.4% 0.5% 3.4%
First Round93.6% 98.4% 91.2%
Second Round60.0% 67.7% 56.2%
Sweet Sixteen27.3% 33.7% 24.0%
Elite Eight11.3% 14.1% 9.8%
Final Four4.4% 5.8% 3.7%
Championship Game1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 346   Kennesaw St. W 81-55 99%     1 - 0 +6.7 -4.5 +9.5
  Nov 12, 2019 30   @ Michigan L 69-79 39%     1 - 1 +5.4 +9.4 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2019 82   Louisiana Tech W 82-72 80%     2 - 1 +13.8 +9.7 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2019 327   Cal Poly W 86-70 98%     3 - 1 +2.7 +7.9 -5.2
  Nov 24, 2019 172   North Florida W 76-67 92%     4 - 1 +5.6 -2.7 +8.3
  Nov 28, 2019 14   San Diego St. L 52-83 43%     4 - 2 -16.7 -11.8 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2019 23   Texas Tech W 83-76 OT 48%     5 - 2 +20.0 +17.9 +1.9
  Dec 03, 2019 131   Oral Roberts W 72-60 89%     6 - 2 +11.2 -3.0 +14.6
  Dec 07, 2019 115   Nebraska W 95-76 87%     7 - 2 +19.5 +9.0 +7.9
  Dec 13, 2019 253   UT Rio Grande Valley W 89-58 96%     8 - 2 +22.9 +6.3 +14.4
  Dec 17, 2019 45   Oklahoma W 83-73 69%     9 - 2 +17.3 +7.8 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2019 65   @ Arizona St. W 67-60 57%     10 - 2 +17.8 +3.6 +14.4
  Jan 01, 2020 26   Marquette W 92-75 60%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +27.0 +14.3 +11.1
  Jan 04, 2020 21   @ Butler L 57-71 37%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +2.1 -7.0 +9.1
  Jan 07, 2020 16   Villanova L 59-64 56%     11 - 4 1 - 2 +6.1 -4.1 +9.7
  Jan 11, 2020 52   @ Xavier W 77-65 50%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +24.6 +16.9 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2020 49   @ Georgetown L 80-83 49%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +9.9 +7.1 +3.0
  Jan 18, 2020 62   Providence W 78-74 76%     13 - 5 3 - 3 +9.2 +17.5 -7.8
  Jan 22, 2020 78   @ DePaul W 83-68 61%     14 - 5 4 - 3 +24.7 +15.6 +9.2
  Jan 26, 2020 52   Xavier W 77-66 72%     15 - 5 5 - 3 +17.7 +14.2 +4.2
  Feb 01, 2020 16   @ Villanova L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 05, 2020 62   @ Providence W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 69   St. John's W 80-72 77%    
  Feb 12, 2020 10   @ Seton Hall L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 78   DePaul W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 18, 2020 26   @ Marquette L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 23, 2020 21   Butler W 70-68 59%    
  Mar 01, 2020 69   @ St. John's W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 04, 2020 49   Georgetown W 83-77 70%    
  Mar 07, 2020 10   Seton Hall W 74-73 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 6.0 1st
2nd 0.5 3.5 7.6 5.0 0.9 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 6.0 11.6 7.0 0.9 0.0 26.0 3rd
4th 0.3 5.1 11.6 6.0 0.7 0.0 23.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 7.7 4.4 0.6 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.4 0.3 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.7 2.8 8.2 15.9 22.7 21.6 16.1 8.6 2.9 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 94.4% 0.4    0.4 0.1
14-4 68.4% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.1
13-5 31.0% 2.7    0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.9% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.5 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.6% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 3.5 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
11-7 21.6% 99.8% 12.8% 87.0% 5.7 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.7 7.1 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 22.7% 99.1% 10.8% 88.2% 6.9 0.1 0.5 2.7 5.6 6.5 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 99.0%
9-9 15.9% 95.5% 8.2% 87.3% 8.1 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.1 4.5 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.7 95.1%
8-10 8.2% 78.3% 4.8% 73.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.2 1.8 77.2%
7-11 2.8% 35.4% 3.5% 31.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.8 33.0%
6-12 0.7% 13.2% 13.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 13.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.9% 12.5% 82.4% 6.2 0.8 2.9 7.2 10.9 15.2 17.5 14.5 11.6 7.1 3.8 3.0 0.4 5.2 94.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.0 14.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 13.6 86.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 50.0 50.0