Iowa
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#16
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#21
Pace73.8#69
Improvement+3.1#48

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#2
First Shot+7.5#8
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#10
Layup/Dunks+4.1#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#73
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement+0.8#131

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#84
First Shot+3.8#73
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#198
Layups/Dunks+0.4#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows+1.9#62
Improvement+2.3#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 7.7% 9.9% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 38.1% 44.6% 24.2%
Top 6 Seed 70.5% 77.2% 56.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.5% 96.9% 89.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.0% 96.5% 88.7%
Average Seed 5.3 4.9 6.0
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 88.3% 68.6%
Conference Champion 7.6% 9.8% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 1.1% 3.2%
First Round93.7% 96.4% 88.0%
Second Round69.5% 73.5% 61.0%
Sweet Sixteen37.6% 40.9% 30.5%
Elite Eight17.3% 19.1% 13.2%
Final Four8.2% 9.0% 6.3%
Championship Game3.4% 3.9% 2.5%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 1.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 68.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 210 - 9
Quad 25 - 215 - 11
Quad 32 - 117 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 337   SIU Edwardsville W 87-60 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +2.7 +7.9
  Nov 11, 2019 60   DePaul L 78-93 80%     1 - 1 -9.4 -3.5 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2019 126   Oral Roberts W 87-74 91%     2 - 1 +12.8 +6.9 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2019 172   North Florida W 83-68 94%     3 - 1 +12.0 +7.5 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2019 318   Cal Poly W 85-59 98%     4 - 1 +13.5 +5.9 +6.9
  Nov 28, 2019 17   Texas Tech W 72-61 51%     5 - 1 +25.0 +6.4 +18.1
  Nov 29, 2019 12   San Diego St. L 73-83 48%     5 - 2 +4.9 +11.5 -7.0
  Dec 03, 2019 51   @ Syracuse W 68-54 57%     6 - 2 +26.5 +5.8 +21.9
  Dec 06, 2019 22   @ Michigan L 91-103 43%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +4.2 +20.3 -15.4
  Dec 09, 2019 38   Minnesota W 72-52 71%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +28.5 +7.3 +22.8
  Dec 12, 2019 56   @ Iowa St. W 84-68 60%     8 - 3 +27.7 +15.7 +12.1
  Dec 21, 2019 49   Cincinnati W 77-70 66%     9 - 3 +17.2 +3.6 +12.9
  Dec 29, 2019 345   Kennesaw St. W 93-51 99%     10 - 3 +24.1 +12.3 +11.1
  Jan 04, 2020 30   Penn St. L 86-89 58%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +9.3 +12.7 -3.2
  Jan 07, 2020 121   @ Nebraska L 70-76 79%     10 - 5 1 - 3 -0.2 -1.3 +1.2
  Jan 10, 2020 7   Maryland W 67-49 54%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +31.4 +3.5 +27.8
  Jan 14, 2020 103   @ Northwestern W 75-62 74%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +20.5 +13.6 +8.2
  Jan 17, 2020 22   Michigan W 90-83 65%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +17.5 +18.2 -1.0
  Jan 22, 2020 31   Rutgers W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 27, 2020 24   Wisconsin W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 30, 2020 7   @ Maryland L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 02, 2020 34   Illinois W 79-74 70%    
  Feb 05, 2020 20   @ Purdue L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 08, 2020 121   Nebraska W 87-73 91%    
  Feb 13, 2020 41   @ Indiana W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 16, 2020 38   @ Minnesota W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 20, 2020 13   Ohio St. W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 25, 2020 4   @ Michigan St. L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 29, 2020 30   Penn St. W 82-77 68%    
  Mar 03, 2020 20   Purdue W 70-67 62%    
  Mar 08, 2020 34   @ Illinois L 76-77 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 6.7 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.4 5.6 0.8 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 3.3 7.5 1.2 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.6 7.2 2.7 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 5.9 0.4 9.3 6th
7th 0.5 5.7 2.0 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.6 0.2 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 1.5 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.2 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.3 10.0 15.6 19.2 18.9 14.7 8.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2
15-5 63.8% 2.4    1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 33.3% 3.0    0.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.9% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.0 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.0% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.7% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.2 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.9% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.9 0.4 2.3 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.7% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.6 0.2 1.1 5.5 5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.9% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.5 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.5 6.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 19.2% 99.9% 5.7% 94.2% 5.6 0.0 0.7 2.2 6.1 6.4 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 15.6% 99.2% 4.0% 95.2% 6.6 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.5 4.6 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-11 10.0% 90.5% 3.0% 87.5% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.0 90.2%
8-12 5.3% 59.6% 1.9% 57.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.2 58.8%
7-13 2.0% 18.0% 1.0% 17.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 17.2%
6-14 0.5% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0%
5-15 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.5% 9.0% 85.5% 5.3 1.9 5.8 15.1 15.3 17.7 14.8 9.4 5.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.5 94.0%