Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#231
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#212
Pace70.3#150
Improvement-5.1#334

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#206
First Shot-2.3#258
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#86
Layup/Dunks+0.8#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#225
Freethrows-0.1#176
Improvement-2.2#286

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#256
First Shot-5.5#330
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#16
Layups/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-2.9#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 12.3% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 62.2% 74.1% 48.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 84.2% 61.6%
Conference Champion 14.3% 20.3% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.6% 3.2%
First Four2.8% 2.6% 3.0%
First Round9.2% 11.0% 7.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 217   American W 96-80 59%     1 - 0 +9.8 +13.0 -4.3
  Nov 08, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 63-81 8%     1 - 1 -5.9 -6.1 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2019 116   St. Bonaventure W 78-65 32%     2 - 1 +13.8 +7.2 +6.7
  Nov 14, 2019 94   @ Harvard L 56-59 13%     2 - 2 +5.3 -12.5 +17.7
  Nov 20, 2019 72   @ Yale L 89-100 3OT 10%     2 - 3 -0.8 +3.2 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2019 129   @ Colgate L 62-72 20%     2 - 4 -4.8 -12.4 +7.9
  Dec 07, 2019 320   @ Cal Poly L 66-70 61%     2 - 5 -10.8 -1.0 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2019 219   Bucknell W 81-71 59%     3 - 5 +3.8 +0.8 +2.4
  Dec 23, 2019 234   Canisius W 73-72 62%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -5.9 -8.3 +2.2
  Dec 29, 2019 339   Holy Cross W 74-62 86%     5 - 5 -3.7 -4.0 +1.2
  Jan 03, 2020 203   Monmouth W 75-72 56%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -2.5 -2.1 -0.6
  Jan 05, 2020 190   @ Rider L 77-85 31%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -6.9 -0.6 -5.8
  Jan 09, 2020 244   St. Peter's W 61-58 63%     7 - 6 3 - 1 -4.4 -6.4 +2.2
  Jan 12, 2020 240   @ Manhattan L 69-81 41%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -13.5 -0.1 -13.6
  Jan 17, 2020 234   @ Canisius L 63-73 40%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -11.3 -7.0 -4.6
  Jan 19, 2020 289   @ Niagara W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 24, 2020 336   Marist W 70-59 86%    
  Jan 26, 2020 237   Quinnipiac W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 31, 2020 241   @ Iona L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 02, 2020 244   @ St. Peter's L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 07, 2020 253   Fairfield W 65-61 66%    
  Feb 14, 2020 190   Rider W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 16, 2020 240   Manhattan W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 19, 2020 241   Iona W 75-72 63%    
  Feb 23, 2020 253   @ Fairfield L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 26, 2020 237   @ Quinnipiac L 71-73 40%    
  Feb 28, 2020 336   @ Marist W 67-61 69%    
  Mar 04, 2020 289   Niagara W 77-71 73%    
  Mar 06, 2020 203   @ Monmouth L 70-74 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 14.3 1st
2nd 0.5 5.2 5.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 7.0 1.9 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.4 2.8 0.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.3 5.5 4.7 0.3 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.4 0.9 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 2.4 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.7 0.3 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.9 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 7.8 12.3 16.1 17.3 16.1 12.2 7.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 98.9% 1.0    0.9 0.0
15-5 90.3% 3.0    2.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 70.6% 5.3    2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0
13-7 34.0% 4.1    0.8 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-8 5.3% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 7.0 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 34.8% 34.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.0% 27.6% 27.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
15-5 3.3% 24.7% 24.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.5
14-6 7.4% 21.3% 21.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 5.9
13-7 12.2% 18.3% 18.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 9.9
12-8 16.1% 13.7% 13.7% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.6 13.9
11-9 17.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 15.6
10-10 16.1% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.1 0.9 15.2
9-11 12.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.9
8-12 7.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.7
7-13 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-14 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.5 6.4 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.2 18.4 44.9 36.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%