Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#289
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#94
Pace70.6#159
Improvement+0.1#160

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#224
First Shot-4.1#294
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#63
Layup/Dunks-7.3#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#264
Freethrows+1.4#100
Improvement+0.1#153

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#321
First Shot-12.0#353
After Offensive Rebounds+6.5#3
Layups/Dunks-4.6#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#320
Freethrows-1.9#270
Improvement+0.0#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 26.3% 42.7% 18.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 50.5% 33.3%
Conference Champion 4.0% 6.6% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 8.3% 16.5%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round3.3% 5.2% 2.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 9
Quad 49 - 811 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 13   @ Arizona L 52-91 2%     0 - 1 -20.0 -12.5 -7.1
  Nov 30, 2019 147   South Dakota L 72-77 31%    
  Dec 04, 2019 309   UC Davis W 72-67 69%    
  Dec 08, 2019 196   Nebraska Omaha L 73-78 32%    
  Dec 14, 2019 198   @ Utah Valley L 69-77 22%    
  Dec 19, 2019 275   @ UC Riverside L 63-67 35%    
  Dec 21, 2019 119   @ Pepperdine L 73-86 12%    
  Dec 28, 2019 207   @ Montana L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 30, 2019 195   @ Montana St. L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 04, 2020 277   Weber St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 09, 2020 266   @ Sacramento St. L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 11, 2020 310   Idaho St. W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 16, 2020 190   @ Southern Utah L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 182   @ Northern Colorado L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 25, 2020 274   Portland St. W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 27, 2020 266   Sacramento St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 336   Idaho W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 03, 2020 204   Eastern Washington L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 06, 2020 310   @ Idaho St. L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 08, 2020 277   @ Weber St. L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 13, 2020 182   Northern Colorado L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 15, 2020 190   Southern Utah L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 20, 2020 336   @ Idaho W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 204   @ Eastern Washington L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 27, 2020 207   Montana L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 29, 2020 195   Montana St. L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 05, 2020 274   @ Portland St. L 75-79 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.7 1.2 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.8 1.3 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.5 1.7 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.4 3.9 1.2 0.1 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.9 5.9 7.8 9.1 10.4 11.0 10.1 9.4 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 97.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 76.1% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 44.2% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 34.8% 34.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.2% 37.1% 37.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.7% 36.2% 36.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.5% 24.4% 24.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.4% 16.9% 16.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-6 3.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.1
13-7 5.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.6
12-8 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.4
11-9 8.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.4
10-10 9.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 9.0
9-11 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.9
8-12 11.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.9
7-13 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 5.9% 5.9
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%