Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#218
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#185
Pace68.4#213
Improvement+2.8#68

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#175
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#92
Layup/Dunks-2.2#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#128
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement+1.5#98

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#281
First Shot-4.0#307
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#143
Layups/Dunks-5.5#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+1.3#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 68.3% 78.8% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 76.0% 49.4%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round5.3% 6.3% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 58.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 410 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 11   @ Arizona L 52-91 3%     0 - 1 -21.1 -13.2 -7.5
  Nov 30, 2019 173   South Dakota W 76-72 50%     1 - 1 +0.5 +1.9 -1.1
  Dec 04, 2019 252   UC Davis L 66-85 67%     1 - 2 -27.1 -7.6 -20.5
  Dec 08, 2019 215   Nebraska Omaha W 73-65 61%     2 - 2 +1.7 -8.9 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2019 261   @ Utah Valley W 79-73 46%     3 - 2 +3.4 +0.3 +2.6
  Dec 19, 2019 236   @ UC Riverside W 63-56 42%     4 - 2 +5.7 -2.4 +8.8
  Dec 21, 2019 141   @ Pepperdine L 73-75 22%     4 - 3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2
  Dec 28, 2019 185   @ Montana L 72-79 30%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -5.1 +0.6 -5.7
  Dec 30, 2019 237   @ Montana St. L 61-63 42%     4 - 5 0 - 2 -3.4 -6.9 +3.4
  Jan 04, 2020 277   Weber St. W 72-64 72%     5 - 5 1 - 2 -1.5 +3.1 -3.6
  Jan 09, 2020 209   @ Sacramento St. L 57-64 37%     5 - 6 1 - 3 -7.1 -6.0 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2020 317   Idaho St. L 67-71 80%     5 - 7 1 - 4 -16.4 -13.3 -3.1
  Jan 16, 2020 154   @ Southern Utah W 75-72 25%     6 - 7 2 - 4 +6.4 +9.7 -3.1
  Jan 18, 2020 125   @ Northern Colorado W 64-58 20%     7 - 7 3 - 4 +11.4 +1.4 +10.7
  Jan 25, 2020 217   Portland St. W 84-82 61%     8 - 7 4 - 4 -4.4 +1.1 -5.5
  Jan 27, 2020 209   Sacramento St. W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 01, 2020 321   Idaho W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 03, 2020 175   Eastern Washington W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 06, 2020 317   @ Idaho St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2020 277   @ Weber St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 13, 2020 125   Northern Colorado L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 15, 2020 154   Southern Utah L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 20, 2020 321   @ Idaho W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 175   @ Eastern Washington L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 27, 2020 185   Montana W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 237   Montana St. W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 05, 2020 217   @ Portland St. L 75-78 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 1.2 5.0 3.8 0.5 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.2 6.2 0.8 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.7 5.2 8.2 1.6 15.8 5th
6th 0.5 4.7 8.8 3.0 0.1 17.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 7.7 3.5 0.2 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.5 3.0 0.3 11.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.1 0.2 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.6 10.5 16.3 18.8 18.9 14.0 8.5 3.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 94.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-5 70.9% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 29.8% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.1% 16.4% 16.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-6 3.6% 16.3% 16.3% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.0
13-7 8.5% 13.7% 13.7% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 7.4
12-8 14.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 12.8
11-9 18.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 17.9
10-10 18.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 18.1
9-11 16.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 16.0
8-12 10.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-13 5.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 1.7 94.6 0.0%