Arizona
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#34
Pace69.3#190
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.8%
#1 Seed 8.9% 9.8% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 19.6% 21.3% 9.8%
Top 4 Seed 39.6% 42.5% 22.8%
Top 6 Seed 57.0% 60.3% 37.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.7% 90.8% 76.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.9% 87.6% 70.8%
Average Seed 5.4 5.2 6.5
.500 or above 98.4% 99.0% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 94.5% 87.2%
Conference Champion 34.0% 35.9% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four4.1% 4.0% 4.6%
First Round87.0% 89.2% 73.9%
Second Round63.7% 66.6% 46.7%
Sweet Sixteen33.7% 35.5% 23.4%
Elite Eight16.8% 18.0% 10.2%
Final Four8.4% 8.9% 5.2%
Championship Game3.9% 4.2% 2.1%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 0.7%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 27 - 212 - 7
Quad 36 - 119 - 8
Quad 45 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 289   Northern Arizona W 91-52 98%     1 - 0 +28.7 +10.3 +18.0
  Nov 10, 2019 54   Illinois W 90-69 80%     2 - 0 +27.1 +11.1 +14.1
  Nov 14, 2019 324   San Jose St. W 87-39 99%     3 - 0 +34.2 +5.4 +27.2
  Nov 17, 2019 79   New Mexico St. W 76-65 85%    
  Nov 21, 2019 202   South Dakota St. W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 24, 2019 260   Long Beach St. W 87-64 98%    
  Nov 28, 2019 113   Pepperdine W 83-71 86%    
  Dec 07, 2019 15   @ Baylor L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 11, 2019 198   Nebraska Omaha W 83-63 96%    
  Dec 14, 2019 8   Gonzaga W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 21, 2019 87   St. John's W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 04, 2020 64   Arizona St. W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 09, 2020 12   @ Oregon L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 12, 2020 68   @ Oregon St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 16, 2020 81   Utah W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 18, 2020 35   Colorado W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 25, 2020 64   @ Arizona St. W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 30, 2020 47   @ Washington W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 131   @ Washington St. W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 06, 2020 59   USC W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 88   UCLA W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 13, 2020 135   @ California W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 94   @ Stanford W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 20, 2020 68   Oregon St. W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 22, 2020 12   Oregon W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 27, 2020 59   @ USC W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 29, 2020 88   @ UCLA W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 05, 2020 131   Washington St. W 83-67 92%    
  Mar 07, 2020 47   Washington W 70-62 74%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.5 9.1 8.7 5.6 1.7 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.7 6.6 3.2 0.6 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.2 5.8 4.6 1.3 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 8.3 10.2 12.7 13.8 14.4 12.3 9.3 5.6 1.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 5.6    5.3 0.2
16-2 93.5% 8.7    7.0 1.7
15-3 73.3% 9.1    6.1 2.7 0.3
14-4 44.9% 6.5    3.0 2.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 15.4% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 23.5 8.5 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 68.8% 31.2% 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.6% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 1.6 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.3% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 2.2 2.7 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
15-3 12.3% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 3.1 1.5 3.0 3.2 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 14.4% 99.7% 29.9% 69.8% 4.3 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.4 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.6%
13-5 13.8% 98.7% 24.0% 74.7% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.3%
12-6 12.7% 97.3% 16.6% 80.7% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 96.8%
11-7 10.2% 92.2% 14.0% 78.2% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.8 90.9%
10-8 8.3% 76.1% 7.6% 68.5% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.3 2.0 74.1%
9-9 5.2% 52.1% 4.3% 47.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.3 2.5 49.9%
8-10 3.1% 26.0% 2.7% 23.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.3 23.9%
7-11 1.7% 8.3% 3.3% 5.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 5.2%
6-12 1.0% 6.9% 4.1% 2.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.9%
5-13 0.5% 5.6% 2.8% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.7% 25.2% 63.5% 5.4 8.9 10.7 9.9 10.1 9.0 8.3 7.4 6.3 6.6 5.8 4.5 1.0 11.3 84.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 84.2 15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 85.7 14.3