Arizona
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#11
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#43
Pace70.6#139
Improvement-2.6#280

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#8
First Shot+7.3#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#70
Layup/Dunks+2.9#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows+2.9#14
Improvement-1.3#251

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#35
First Shot+3.8#71
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#22
Layups/Dunks+5.8#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#133
Freethrows-2.1#292
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.0% 5.5% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.3% 13.8% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 29.4% 36.8% 14.6%
Top 6 Seed 50.8% 59.7% 33.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 95.0% 86.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.8% 92.6% 81.7%
Average Seed 6.1 5.6 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.6% 97.1%
Conference Champion 43.0% 51.2% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 2.0% 5.2%
First Round91.0% 94.2% 84.4%
Second Round66.8% 71.4% 57.6%
Sweet Sixteen36.2% 40.2% 28.3%
Elite Eight18.6% 21.0% 13.8%
Final Four9.2% 10.6% 6.5%
Championship Game4.4% 5.1% 2.9%
National Champion2.0% 2.3% 1.4%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 27 - 311 - 8
Quad 39 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 226   Northern Arizona W 91-52 97%     1 - 0 +32.4 +12.2 +19.8
  Nov 10, 2019 34   Illinois W 90-69 73%     2 - 0 +29.9 +13.0 +14.9
  Nov 14, 2019 287   San Jose St. W 87-39 98%     3 - 0 +37.8 +5.8 +30.4
  Nov 17, 2019 94   New Mexico St. W 83-53 88%     4 - 0 +32.5 +13.2 +19.9
  Nov 21, 2019 144   South Dakota St. W 71-64 93%     5 - 0 +5.4 -4.9 +10.5
  Nov 24, 2019 305   Long Beach St. W 104-67 98%     6 - 0 +25.5 +7.8 +11.2
  Nov 28, 2019 147   Pepperdine W 93-91 90%     7 - 0 +3.1 +11.6 -8.6
  Nov 29, 2019 148   Penn W 92-82 90%     8 - 0 +11.0 +16.9 -6.1
  Dec 01, 2019 105   Wake Forest W 73-66 84%     9 - 0 +11.6 +1.6 +10.0
  Dec 07, 2019 5   @ Baylor L 58-63 32%     9 - 1 +15.0 -6.3 +21.5
  Dec 11, 2019 213   Nebraska Omaha W 99-49 96%     10 - 1 +44.0 +20.0 +23.8
  Dec 14, 2019 3   Gonzaga L 80-84 45%     10 - 2 +12.3 +9.6 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2019 75   St. John's L 67-70 77%     10 - 3 +4.2 -0.7 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2020 71   Arizona St. W 75-47 84%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +32.7 +1.5 +29.4
  Jan 09, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 73-74 OT 44%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +15.5 +6.2 +9.3
  Jan 12, 2020 74   @ Oregon St. L 65-82 69%     11 - 5 1 - 2 -6.9 +0.1 -8.7
  Jan 16, 2020 115   Utah W 93-77 90%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +16.9 +14.1 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2020 25   Colorado W 75-54 70%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +30.8 +17.5 +15.7
  Jan 25, 2020 71   @ Arizona St. W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 30, 2020 46   @ Washington W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 01, 2020 122   @ Washington St. W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 06, 2020 58   USC W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 08, 2020 125   UCLA W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 13, 2020 182   @ California W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 15, 2020 44   @ Stanford W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 20, 2020 74   Oregon St. W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 22, 2020 21   Oregon W 72-68 67%    
  Feb 27, 2020 58   @ USC W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 29, 2020 125   @ UCLA W 75-66 80%    
  Mar 05, 2020 122   Washington St. W 81-66 92%    
  Mar 07, 2020 46   Washington W 73-65 77%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 8.8 16.4 12.4 4.0 43.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.3 11.5 4.7 0.5 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.2 7.5 2.5 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.8 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.3 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 5.9 11.4 18.1 22.9 21.2 12.8 4.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.0    3.9 0.1
15-3 96.3% 12.4    10.2 2.1 0.1
14-4 77.4% 16.4    8.9 6.5 0.9 0.0
13-5 38.3% 8.8    2.1 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.0% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.0% 43.0 25.3 13.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.8% 99.9% 41.3% 58.6% 3.0 1.9 3.3 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 21.2% 99.7% 36.0% 63.7% 4.6 0.3 1.5 3.4 5.6 4.5 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
13-5 22.9% 98.1% 31.6% 66.6% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.3%
12-6 18.1% 93.7% 26.4% 67.3% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 3.2 3.9 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.0 1.1 91.4%
11-7 11.4% 84.2% 21.2% 63.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.6 0.1 1.8 80.0%
10-8 5.9% 66.5% 15.8% 50.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.0 60.2%
9-9 2.5% 44.6% 10.9% 33.7% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.4 37.8%
8-10 0.9% 19.2% 10.9% 8.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 9.3%
7-11 0.3% 5.3% 2.3% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1%
6-12 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 30.6% 61.6% 6.1 4.0 6.3 7.8 11.3 11.0 10.3 11.3 10.1 8.5 6.8 4.4 0.4 7.8 88.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 1.4 62.7 32.9 4.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 2.0 31.0 42.9 17.7 7.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 2.2 28.3 32.8 26.9 11.2 0.8