Prairie View
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#204
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#206
Pace75.5#46
Improvement+1.0#137

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#281
First Shot-5.4#319
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#58
Layup/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#350
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement+1.0#117

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#140
First Shot+0.3#156
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks+0.3#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#132
Freethrows-3.7#337
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.5% 44.2% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 95.2% 97.3% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 70.7% 76.1% 54.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four21.8% 20.1% 26.6%
First Round32.3% 34.9% 24.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 418 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 112   @ Central Florida L 69-73 18%     0 - 1 +3.0 -0.7 +3.8
  Nov 12, 2019 133   @ Texas St. L 48-75 23%     0 - 2 -22.2 -22.8 +1.3
  Nov 15, 2019 63   @ Texas L 56-70 10%     0 - 3 -3.0 -11.6 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2019 168   @ California L 50-54 30%     0 - 4 -1.4 -17.0 +15.4
  Nov 22, 2019 107   Georgia St. L 74-83 25%     0 - 5 -4.6 -0.4 -3.8
  Nov 23, 2019 305   Central Arkansas W 78-72 OT 71%     1 - 5 -2.6 -16.3 +12.5
  Nov 30, 2019 167   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-72 30%     2 - 5 +9.7 -0.9 +10.2
  Dec 11, 2019 65   @ Arizona St. L 79-88 11%     2 - 6 +1.8 +3.6 -0.7
  Dec 13, 2019 196   @ Loyola Marymount L 76-79 37%     2 - 7 -2.3 -0.2 -1.9
  Dec 19, 2019 20   @ Colorado L 64-83 5%     2 - 8 -2.8 -2.7 +0.9
  Dec 22, 2019 10   @ Seton Hall L 55-75 4%     2 - 9 -1.6 -10.3 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2020 311   Alcorn St. W 84-70 81%     3 - 9 1 - 0 +2.1 -0.2 +1.5
  Jan 06, 2020 323   Southern W 64-54 83%     4 - 9 2 - 0 -2.9 -9.9 +7.9
  Jan 11, 2020 246   @ Texas Southern L 67-71 47%     4 - 10 2 - 1 -6.0 -11.1 +5.4
  Jan 18, 2020 318   @ Grambling St. W 64-57 65%     5 - 10 3 - 1 +0.3 -5.0 +5.8
  Jan 20, 2020 329   @ Jackson St. W 74-60 68%     6 - 10 4 - 1 +6.4 -5.7 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2020 345   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 67-54 93%     7 - 10 5 - 1 -6.3 -9.3 +3.3
  Jan 27, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 102-83 96%     8 - 10 6 - 1 -4.7 -1.4 -6.7
  Feb 01, 2020 341   @ Alabama St. W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 03, 2020 343   @ Alabama A&M W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 246   Texas Southern W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 318   Grambling St. W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 17, 2020 329   Jackson St. W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 22, 2020 345   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 24, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 88-73 92%    
  Feb 29, 2020 341   Alabama St. W 76-63 89%    
  Mar 02, 2020 343   Alabama A&M W 75-61 91%    
  Mar 05, 2020 311   @ Alcorn St. W 73-70 62%    
  Mar 07, 2020 323   @ Southern W 70-66 65%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.1 12.1 23.1 21.9 10.1 70.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.7 8.5 3.8 0.3 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 4.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.5 12.1 20.9 27.0 22.2 10.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 10.1    10.1
16-2 98.8% 21.9    19.8 2.2
15-3 85.8% 23.1    16.8 6.2 0.1
14-4 57.9% 12.1    6.2 5.1 0.8 0.0
13-5 25.9% 3.1    0.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 70.7% 70.7 53.7 15.2 1.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 10.1% 56.1% 56.1% 15.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 1.0 4.4
16-2 22.2% 50.2% 50.2% 15.7 0.1 2.9 8.2 11.1
15-3 27.0% 43.3% 43.3% 15.9 0.0 0.8 10.8 15.3
14-4 20.9% 38.5% 38.5% 16.0 0.3 7.8 12.8
13-5 12.1% 32.1% 32.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8 8.2
12-6 5.5% 26.5% 26.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4 4.0
11-7 1.6% 26.0% 26.0% 16.0 0.4 1.2
10-8 0.5% 31.7% 31.7% 16.0 0.2 0.3
9-9 0.1% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.5% 42.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.1 7.6 33.7 57.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 15.0 1.9 17.2 63.5 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%