California
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#137
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#55
Pace65.8#285
Improvement-1.4#315

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#145
First Shot+1.3#131
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#197
Layup/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
Freethrows-0.7#214
Improvement-1.6#335

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#123
Layups/Dunks-1.4#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+0.8#149
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 13.3% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 13.0% 3.3%
Average Seed 10.0 9.8 10.0
.500 or above 22.4% 47.8% 21.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 21.0% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 36.6% 23.9% 37.1%
First Four1.5% 6.0% 1.3%
First Round3.1% 10.6% 2.8%
Second Round1.1% 4.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 23 - 64 - 15
Quad 35 - 39 - 18
Quad 44 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 116   Pepperdine W 87-71 58%     1 - 0 +15.8 +9.2 +6.4
  Nov 12, 2019 146   UNLV W 79-75 OT 64%     2 - 0 +2.2 +4.9 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2019 222   California Baptist W 82-62 78%     3 - 0 +13.7 +4.9 +9.1
  Nov 18, 2019 270   Prairie View W 54-50 84%     4 - 0 -4.7 -18.0 +13.5
  Nov 21, 2019 2   Duke L 63-81 4%    
  Nov 26, 2019 310   UC Davis W 72-58 91%    
  Dec 04, 2019 85   @ San Francisco L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 07, 2019 140   @ Santa Clara L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 11, 2019 123   Fresno St. W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 14, 2019 34   St. Mary's L 60-67 26%    
  Dec 21, 2019 97   Boston College L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 29, 2019 100   Harvard W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 02, 2020 83   @ Stanford L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 09, 2020 143   Washington St. W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 11, 2020 60   Washington L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 16, 2020 59   @ USC L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 19, 2020 78   @ UCLA L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 26, 2020 83   Stanford L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 30, 2020 12   Oregon L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 01, 2020 66   Oregon St. L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 06, 2020 27   @ Colorado L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 08, 2020 79   @ Utah L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 13, 2020 13   Arizona L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 16, 2020 52   Arizona St. L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 19, 2020 143   @ Washington St. L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 60   @ Washington L 59-69 20%    
  Feb 27, 2020 27   Colorado L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 29, 2020 79   Utah L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 05, 2020 12   @ Oregon L 58-75 7%    
  Mar 07, 2020 66   @ Oregon St. L 65-74 21%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.4 1.7 0.2 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.4 4.7 0.6 0.0 15.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 5.4 7.9 4.3 0.9 0.0 20.3 11th
12th 1.9 5.3 7.9 7.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 26.2 12th
Total 1.9 5.4 9.5 13.0 14.9 14.0 13.2 10.2 7.0 5.0 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 63.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 97.8% 6.6% 91.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
13-5 0.3% 89.7% 2.9% 86.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4%
12-6 0.8% 77.6% 2.8% 74.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 77.0%
11-7 1.7% 57.2% 3.8% 53.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 55.5%
10-8 2.8% 33.0% 3.1% 29.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.9 30.8%
9-9 5.0% 12.7% 0.6% 12.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 12.1%
8-10 7.0% 3.8% 0.7% 3.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 3.1%
7-11 10.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.6%
6-12 13.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.0%
5-13 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 14.0
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15 13.0% 13.0
2-16 9.5% 9.5
1-17 5.4% 5.4
0-18 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 4.0% 0.3% 3.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 96.0 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%