Colorado
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#20
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#18
Pace69.4#175
Improvement+1.7#114

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#48
First Shot+2.6#92
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#32
Layup/Dunks+0.7#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#214
Freethrows+2.8#16
Improvement+1.6#89

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#15
First Shot+6.8#24
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#58
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#71
Freethrows+3.9#8
Improvement+0.0#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 6.2% 7.8% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 26.5% 31.0% 13.0%
Top 6 Seed 55.6% 61.0% 39.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.0% 98.7% 95.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.4% 98.4% 94.8%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.8%
Conference Champion 38.4% 44.1% 21.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 2.4%
First Round97.4% 98.3% 94.8%
Second Round64.3% 66.7% 56.9%
Sweet Sixteen29.7% 31.7% 23.7%
Elite Eight12.9% 13.7% 10.4%
Final Four5.2% 5.5% 4.3%
Championship Game2.0% 2.3% 1.2%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.2%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 5
Quad 28 - 213 - 7
Quad 36 - 119 - 8
Quad 47 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 65   Arizona St. W 81-71 70%     1 - 0 +17.9 +1.6 +14.7
  Nov 16, 2019 200   San Diego W 71-53 95%     2 - 0 +12.6 +0.4 +12.6
  Nov 18, 2019 122   UC Irvine W 69-53 89%     3 - 0 +16.0 -0.4 +17.0
  Nov 24, 2019 282   Wyoming W 56-41 96%     4 - 0 +8.3 -14.5 +23.6
  Nov 26, 2019 74   Clemson W 71-67 72%     5 - 0 +11.1 +7.9 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2019 220   Sacramento St. W 59-45 96%     6 - 0 +7.5 -11.4 +19.3
  Dec 04, 2019 196   Loyola Marymount W 76-64 95%     7 - 0 +6.9 -1.2 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 58-72 16%     7 - 1 +9.9 -2.4 +12.4
  Dec 10, 2019 61   Northern Iowa L 76-79 77%     7 - 2 +2.4 +8.5 -6.2
  Dec 13, 2019 104   @ Colorado St. W 56-48 71%     8 - 2 +15.5 -12.1 +27.9
  Dec 19, 2019 204   Prairie View W 83-64 95%     9 - 2 +13.3 +5.0 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2019 9   Dayton W 78-76 OT 39%     10 - 2 +18.1 +8.3 +9.7
  Dec 29, 2019 267   Iona W 99-54 97%     11 - 2 +36.4 +10.5 +21.5
  Jan 02, 2020 17   Oregon W 74-65 59%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +20.0 +2.3 +17.4
  Jan 05, 2020 94   Oregon St. L 68-76 84%     12 - 3 1 - 1 -5.4 -1.4 -4.5
  Jan 12, 2020 109   Utah W 91-52 86%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +40.4 +25.2 +19.0
  Jan 16, 2020 65   @ Arizona St. W 68-61 60%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +17.8 +2.1 +15.6
  Jan 18, 2020 11   @ Arizona L 54-75 33%     14 - 4 3 - 2 -3.1 -4.2 -1.4
  Jan 23, 2020 128   Washington St. W 78-56 90%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +21.3 +8.4 +13.7
  Jan 25, 2020 50   Washington W 76-62 73%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +20.9 +6.9 +13.6
  Jan 30, 2020 116   @ UCLA W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 56   @ USC W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 06, 2020 168   California W 72-55 94%    
  Feb 08, 2020 48   Stanford W 68-62 73%    
  Feb 13, 2020 17   @ Oregon L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 15, 2020 94   @ Oregon St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 56   USC W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 22, 2020 116   UCLA W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 27, 2020 168   @ California W 69-58 84%    
  Mar 01, 2020 48   @ Stanford W 66-65 50%    
  Mar 07, 2020 109   @ Utah W 73-67 70%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 9.3 15.7 9.7 2.4 38.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 8.1 12.3 3.7 0.1 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.1 9.2 3.0 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.8 1.9 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.9 3.2 1.6 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 6.5 13.8 20.6 24.6 19.5 9.8 2.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.4    2.4
15-3 98.7% 9.7    8.3 1.4 0.0
14-4 80.7% 15.7    8.4 6.2 1.2
13-5 37.6% 9.3    2.3 4.1 2.5 0.4
12-6 6.2% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.4% 38.4 21.3 12.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.8% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 3.2 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.5% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 4.4 0.3 1.2 3.3 5.6 5.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 24.6% 99.9% 23.1% 76.8% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 5.7 6.5 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 20.6% 99.4% 16.5% 82.9% 7.1 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 13.8% 96.9% 14.5% 82.3% 8.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.4 96.3%
10-8 6.5% 91.8% 8.6% 83.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 91.0%
9-9 2.1% 72.4% 6.4% 66.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 70.5%
8-10 0.7% 57.9% 7.3% 50.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 54.6%
7-11 0.1% 38.7% 38.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 38.7%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.0% 20.9% 77.1% 6.1 1.9 4.3 7.9 12.4 14.0 15.0 14.8 11.5 9.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 2.0 97.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.5 54.7 41.1 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 2.0 32.0 45.5 12.6 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 2.6 8.4 37.6 36.6 17.4