Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#200
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#151
Pace61.2#341
Improvement-2.4#281

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#301
First Shot-6.5#330
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#61
Layup/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#340
Freethrows+0.7#128
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#105
First Shot+0.7#131
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#60
Layups/Dunks-3.6#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#7
Freethrows-1.3#257
Improvement-2.5#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 10.1% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 82.5% 92.9% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 83.3% 59.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 7.2% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round7.5% 9.9% 6.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 31.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2019 253   UC Riverside W 62-49 71%     1 - 0 +4.8 -4.3 +11.0
  Nov 20, 2019 255   UC Davis W 61-51 60%     2 - 0 +4.7 -8.2 +14.0
  Nov 23, 2019 149   @ Pepperdine W 77-72 26%     3 - 0 +9.0 -1.7 +10.4
  Nov 30, 2019 21   @ Colorado L 45-59 5%     3 - 1 +2.4 -16.6 +18.5
  Dec 07, 2019 281   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 62-59 55%     4 - 1 -0.8 -5.9 +5.3
  Dec 14, 2019 146   @ Santa Clara L 58-60 26%     4 - 2 +2.2 -9.3 +11.4
  Dec 18, 2019 316   Cal Poly W 57-56 82%     5 - 2 -11.4 -12.6 +1.3
  Dec 28, 2019 236   @ Montana St. L 51-66 45%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -16.3 -18.7 +1.2
  Dec 30, 2019 167   @ Montana L 50-52 30%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +0.9 -15.7 +16.5
  Jan 04, 2020 313   Idaho St. W 68-49 82%     6 - 4 1 - 2 +6.8 +4.2 +6.9
  Jan 09, 2020 243   Northern Arizona W 64-57 68%     7 - 4 2 - 2 -0.5 -8.1 +8.3
  Jan 11, 2020 274   Weber St. W 71-57 74%     8 - 4 3 - 2 +4.7 +8.6 -0.9
  Jan 16, 2020 122   @ Northern Colorado L 52-71 21%     8 - 5 3 - 3 -13.2 -10.8 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2020 176   @ Southern Utah L 58-63 32%    
  Jan 23, 2020 213   Portland St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 27, 2020 243   @ Northern Arizona L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 01, 2020 188   Eastern Washington W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 03, 2020 319   Idaho W 65-55 82%    
  Feb 06, 2020 274   @ Weber St. W 61-60 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 313   @ Idaho St. W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 13, 2020 176   Southern Utah W 61-60 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 122   Northern Colorado L 59-62 41%    
  Feb 20, 2020 188   @ Eastern Washington L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 319   @ Idaho W 62-58 65%    
  Feb 27, 2020 236   Montana St. W 64-59 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 167   Montana W 60-59 52%    
  Mar 07, 2020 213   @ Portland St. L 65-67 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.0 5.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.3 6.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.9 6.0 1.3 0.1 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.6 6.3 1.3 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.4 1.6 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.5 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.6 9.7 14.0 16.8 16.6 14.4 10.0 5.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 96.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 76.8% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 46.2% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 19.7% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 36.2% 36.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.7% 25.7% 25.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 2.6% 22.0% 22.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-6 5.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.7
13-7 10.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 8.5
12-8 14.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 12.8
11-9 16.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 15.3
10-10 16.8% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 15.9
9-11 14.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 13.7
8-12 9.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.5
7-13 5.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-14 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.5 1.9 92.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.4 14.3 28.6 57.1