Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#304
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#301
Pace69.4#184
Improvement-0.2#202

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#278
First Shot-5.4#307
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#87
Layup/Dunks-2.9#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#302
Freethrows+1.3#105
Improvement-0.7#278

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#318
First Shot-2.4#246
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#321
Layups/Dunks+3.0#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#333
Freethrows-0.6#210
Improvement+0.5#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 8.0% 17.4% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 30.2% 17.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 20.6% 13.0% 23.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Neutral) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 122   @ Vanderbilt L 65-83 10%     0 - 1 -12.5 -5.4 -7.2
  Nov 10, 2019 238   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 44%     1 - 1 -6.3 -3.1 -3.2
  Nov 19, 2019 307   The Citadel L 69-74 63%     1 - 2 -17.3 -19.7 +2.8
  Nov 27, 2019 214   Cal St. Fullerton L 68-74 28%    
  Nov 29, 2019 140   @ Santa Clara L 65-78 11%    
  Nov 30, 2019 293   Denver L 71-73 45%    
  Dec 05, 2019 285   @ Abilene Christian L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 07, 2019 133   @ Drake L 66-80 11%    
  Dec 15, 2019 248   @ Youngstown St. L 70-77 25%    
  Dec 17, 2019 7   @ Ohio St. L 53-82 1%    
  Dec 21, 2019 224   @ Southern Illinois L 62-70 22%    
  Jan 02, 2020 225   @ Austin Peay L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 04, 2020 113   @ Murray St. L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 09, 2020 55   Belmont L 72-87 8%    
  Jan 11, 2020 237   Tennessee St. L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 16, 2020 225   Austin Peay L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 18, 2020 113   Murray St. L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 23, 2020 328   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 25, 2020 190   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 30, 2020 210   @ Morehead St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 01, 2020 264   @ Eastern Kentucky L 78-84 29%    
  Feb 06, 2020 226   Jacksonville St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 08, 2020 322   Tennessee Tech W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 13, 2020 289   Tennessee Martin W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 328   SIU Edwardsville W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 226   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 22, 2020 322   @ Tennessee Tech L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 27, 2020 190   Eastern Illinois L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 289   @ Tennessee Martin L 76-81 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.5 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.8 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.6 11th
12th 0.6 2.3 3.9 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.9 12th
Total 0.6 2.3 4.9 8.2 11.5 13.8 14.1 12.7 10.7 7.5 6.0 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 31.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 7.3% 7.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 10.1% 10.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.3% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
11-7 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.6
10-8 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
9-9 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
8-10 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
7-11 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
6-12 14.1% 14.1
5-13 13.8% 13.8
4-14 11.5% 11.5
3-15 8.2% 8.2
2-16 4.9% 4.9
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%