Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#329
Expected Predictive Rating-13.5#335
Pace67.9#227
Improvement-2.9#292

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#287
First Shot-5.0#310
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#87
Layup/Dunks-3.6#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#277
Freethrows+0.3#147
Improvement+1.5#88

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#336
First Shot-6.4#341
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#185
Layups/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#298
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-4.4#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 5.9% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.9% 16.9% 44.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 152   @ Vanderbilt L 65-83 10%     0 - 1 -14.3 -7.1 -7.3
  Nov 10, 2019 259   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 42%     1 - 1 -7.3 -1.7 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2019 292   The Citadel L 69-74 50%     1 - 2 -15.4 -17.3 +2.4
  Nov 27, 2019 272   Cal St. Fullerton L 57-64 35%     1 - 3 -13.4 -15.2 +1.7
  Nov 29, 2019 142   @ Santa Clara L 75-87 9%     1 - 4 -7.7 -3.0 -3.6
  Nov 30, 2019 319   Denver W 66-51 46%     2 - 4 +5.5 -8.5 +14.6
  Dec 05, 2019 206   @ Abilene Christian L 64-73 17%     2 - 5 -9.1 -9.2 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2019 144   @ Drake L 73-78 9%     2 - 6 -0.8 +0.3 -1.0
  Dec 15, 2019 232   @ Youngstown St. L 50-65 19%     2 - 7 -16.2 -22.8 +5.9
  Dec 17, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. L 48-80 1%     2 - 8 -14.5 -16.5 +2.3
  Dec 21, 2019 189   @ Southern Illinois L 45-64 14%     2 - 9 -17.8 -17.3 -3.6
  Jan 02, 2020 172   @ Austin Peay L 63-78 12%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -12.4 -4.4 -9.8
  Jan 04, 2020 130   @ Murray St. L 59-81 8%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -16.9 -2.5 -18.1
  Jan 09, 2020 88   Belmont L 64-89 10%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -21.7 -5.0 -17.7
  Jan 11, 2020 247   Tennessee St. L 73-75 39%     2 - 13 0 - 4 -9.7 -4.5 -5.2
  Jan 16, 2020 172   Austin Peay L 59-84 24%     2 - 14 0 - 5 -28.0 -13.9 -16.2
  Jan 18, 2020 130   Murray St. L 91-96 OT 17%     2 - 15 0 - 6 -5.5 +8.1 -13.1
  Jan 23, 2020 337   @ SIU Edwardsville L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 25, 2020 216   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 30, 2020 291   @ Morehead St. L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 01, 2020 311   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 06, 2020 233   Jacksonville St. L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 08, 2020 341   Tennessee Tech W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 13, 2020 303   Tennessee Martin W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 337   SIU Edwardsville W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 20, 2020 233   @ Jacksonville St. L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 22, 2020 341   @ Tennessee Tech W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 27, 2020 216   Eastern Illinois L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 303   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-80 33%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.3 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 5.3 1.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 3.7 9.0 3.2 0.1 16.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 6.1 12.2 5.3 0.4 24.7 10th
11th 0.7 5.1 9.4 4.1 0.2 19.5 11th
12th 0.3 2.3 6.1 7.5 3.0 0.2 19.4 12th
Total 0.3 2.3 6.8 13.3 18.6 20.3 17.5 11.4 6.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-10 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-11 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 17.5% 17.5
5-13 20.3% 20.3
4-14 18.6% 18.6
3-15 13.3% 13.3
2-16 6.8% 6.8
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%