Southern Utah
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#183
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#77
Pace75.1#65
Improvement+0.4#117

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#246
First Shot-0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#276
Layup/Dunks+12.7#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.7#352
Freethrows-1.6#252
Improvement+0.4#106

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#135
First Shot-3.1#258
After Offensive Rebounds+4.0#22
Layups/Dunks+0.5#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#81
Freethrows-6.3#346
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 23.3% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 75.7% 90.7% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 90.2% 80.5%
Conference Champion 23.3% 34.3% 21.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four1.7% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round16.9% 22.8% 15.8%
Second Round0.6% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 133   @ Nebraska W 79-78 2OT 28%     1 - 0 +5.8 -7.3 +12.9
  Nov 13, 2019 71   @ BYU L 63-68 13%     1 - 1 +5.7 -7.3 +13.0
  Nov 18, 2019 82   @ UCLA L 66-77 15%    
  Nov 23, 2019 299   Charleston Southern W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 01, 2019 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 35%    
  Dec 07, 2019 233   Utah Valley W 74-69 69%    
  Dec 14, 2019 168   UC Santa Barbara W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 19, 2019 253   @ Long Beach St. W 76-75 50%    
  Dec 30, 2019 271   @ Portland St. W 77-75 52%    
  Jan 02, 2020 204   Montana W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 04, 2020 197   Montana St. W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 09, 2020 310   @ Idaho St. W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 16, 2020 289   Northern Arizona W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 18, 2020 265   Sacramento St. W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 25, 2020 202   @ Eastern Washington L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 27, 2020 336   @ Idaho W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 30, 2020 276   Weber St. W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 01, 2020 310   Idaho St. W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 06, 2020 199   Northern Colorado W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 271   Portland St. W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 13, 2020 265   @ Sacramento St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 289   @ Northern Arizona W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 20, 2020 199   @ Northern Colorado L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 22, 2020 276   @ Weber St. W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 27, 2020 202   Eastern Washington W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 29, 2020 336   Idaho W 76-62 88%    
  Mar 05, 2020 197   @ Montana St. L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 07, 2020 204   @ Montana L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 7.2 4.4 3.1 1.3 0.7 23.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.2 5.0 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.4 2.9 0.1 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.4 2.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 3.0 4.7 7.5 8.3 9.9 11.6 12.6 9.9 10.4 9.2 4.8 3.2 1.3 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
18-2 98.1% 3.1    2.9 0.2
17-3 91.6% 4.4    3.5 0.9 0.0
16-4 78.0% 7.2    4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 42.3% 4.4    2.2 1.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 17.9% 1.8    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.3% 23.3 16.1 5.6 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 31.7% 31.7% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
19-1 1.3% 61.0% 61.0% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5
18-2 3.2% 38.5% 38.5% 13.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 2.0
17-3 4.8% 46.6% 46.6% 13.5 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 2.5
16-4 9.2% 33.8% 33.8% 14.1 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 6.1
15-5 10.4% 26.0% 26.0% 14.3 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 7.7
14-6 9.9% 19.7% 19.7% 14.9 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 8.0
13-7 12.6% 14.6% 14.6% 15.3 0.1 1.1 0.7 10.8
12-8 11.6% 14.2% 14.2% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.9 9.9
11-9 9.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.4
10-10 8.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.1 0.7 7.4
9-11 7.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.1
8-12 4.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.6
7-13 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.4 4.3 5.4 3.9 82.3 0.0%