Southern Utah
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#161
Pace71.2#129
Improvement-0.3#199

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#262
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#288
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement+2.2#60

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#96
First Shot-0.3#165
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#13
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#70
Freethrows-1.6#271
Improvement-2.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 16.3% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 88.8% 93.5% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 92.1% 75.7%
Conference Champion 11.7% 14.7% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round14.4% 16.1% 10.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 121   @ Nebraska W 79-78 2OT 27%     1 - 0 +6.9 -8.5 +15.2
  Nov 13, 2019 33   @ BYU L 63-68 8%     1 - 1 +9.7 -5.4 +15.2
  Nov 18, 2019 129   @ UCLA L 61-76 29%     1 - 2 -9.8 -16.4 +7.7
  Nov 23, 2019 287   Charleston Southern W 80-45 74%     2 - 2 +27.7 +2.0 +25.1
  Nov 24, 2019 75   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-70 16%     2 - 3 -2.1 -9.2 +7.1
  Dec 01, 2019 203   @ Loyola Marymount L 51-61 47%     2 - 4 -9.8 -10.2 -1.9
  Dec 07, 2019 276   Utah Valley W 73-72 80%     3 - 4 -8.4 -10.7 +2.2
  Dec 14, 2019 160   UC Santa Barbara W 62-61 58%     4 - 4 -1.5 -9.1 +7.7
  Dec 19, 2019 303   @ Long Beach St. W 84-63 69%     5 - 4 +15.5 +6.0 +8.8
  Dec 30, 2019 215   @ Portland St. W 83-81 49%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +1.6 +3.3 -1.7
  Jan 02, 2020 165   Montana L 58-60 59%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -4.9 -11.6 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2020 237   Montana St. W 59-53 74%     7 - 5 2 - 1 -1.1 -16.8 +15.7
  Jan 09, 2020 312   @ Idaho St. W 71-55 72%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +9.6 +3.2 +8.4
  Jan 16, 2020 245   Northern Arizona L 72-75 75%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -10.5 -3.6 -6.9
  Jan 18, 2020 201   Sacramento St. W 63-58 68%    
  Jan 25, 2020 187   @ Eastern Washington L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 27, 2020 318   @ Idaho W 69-63 73%    
  Jan 30, 2020 274   Weber St. W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 01, 2020 312   Idaho St. W 72-60 87%    
  Feb 06, 2020 123   Northern Colorado L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 08, 2020 215   Portland St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 13, 2020 201   @ Sacramento St. L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 15, 2020 245   @ Northern Arizona W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 20, 2020 123   @ Northern Colorado L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 22, 2020 274   @ Weber St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 27, 2020 187   Eastern Washington W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 318   Idaho W 72-60 87%    
  Mar 05, 2020 237   @ Montana St. W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 07, 2020 165   @ Montana L 64-67 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.0 3.0 1.1 0.2 11.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.6 6.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.7 8.6 3.5 0.5 0.0 22.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 7.0 6.9 1.8 0.2 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.1 5.1 1.1 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.7 7.2 11.4 15.6 17.2 16.7 12.9 8.0 3.8 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 97.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 80.8% 3.0    2.2 0.8 0.1
15-5 50.1% 4.0    2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 20.7% 2.7    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1
13-7 4.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.2 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 31.6% 31.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.2% 37.4% 37.4% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 3.8% 30.5% 30.5% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.6
15-5 8.0% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 5.8
14-6 12.9% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.1 10.1
13-7 16.7% 18.0% 18.0% 14.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 13.7
12-8 17.2% 13.7% 13.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 14.8
11-9 15.6% 10.0% 10.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 14.0
10-10 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.2 0.4 10.7
9-11 7.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 6.9
8-12 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.6
7-13 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 6.1 2.4 85.4 0.0%