BYU
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#36
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#47
Pace72.5#99
Improvement+0.5#161

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#17
First Shot+9.6#3
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#296
Layup/Dunks+1.2#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#10
Freethrows-1.9#309
Improvement+0.6#145

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#81
First Shot+2.2#100
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#62
Layups/Dunks+1.4#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#27
Freethrows+2.8#35
Improvement-0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 7.1% 8.7% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.6% 60.0% 40.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.1% 52.7% 33.2%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.5% 96.9%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.3% 15.1% 15.7%
First Round48.8% 53.3% 33.2%
Second Round25.2% 28.1% 15.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 10.4% 5.6%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.4% 2.3%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 6
Quad 23 - 35 - 8
Quad 310 - 116 - 9
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-58 96%     1 - 0 +8.8 -2.3 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2019 12   San Diego St. L 71-76 48%     1 - 1 +7.0 +7.7 -0.8
  Nov 13, 2019 158   Southern Utah W 68-63 90%     2 - 1 +2.6 -4.3 +6.8
  Nov 15, 2019 28   @ Houston W 72-71 35%     3 - 1 +16.3 +4.1 +12.3
  Nov 20, 2019 108   @ Boise St. L 68-72 OT 66%     3 - 2 +3.1 -10.0 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2019 125   UCLA W 78-63 79%     4 - 2 +17.8 +16.6 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2019 1   Kansas L 56-71 18%     4 - 3 +6.0 -5.6 +11.8
  Nov 27, 2019 59   Virginia Tech W 90-77 61%     5 - 3 +21.4 +27.2 -5.0
  Dec 04, 2019 115   @ Utah L 95-102 OT 68%     5 - 4 -0.3 +5.3 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2019 124   UNLV W 83-50 79%     6 - 4 +35.8 +19.1 +20.3
  Dec 10, 2019 100   Nevada W 75-42 82%     7 - 4 +34.9 +0.4 +33.4
  Dec 14, 2019 57   Utah St. W 68-64 61%     8 - 4 +12.5 +5.1 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2019 284   Weber St. W 91-61 96%     9 - 4 +20.2 +9.2 +9.8
  Dec 28, 2019 126   Oral Roberts W 79-73 86%     10 - 4 +5.8 +0.9 +4.8
  Jan 04, 2020 197   Loyola Marymount W 63-38 93%     11 - 4 1 - 0 +19.7 -6.8 +28.8
  Jan 09, 2020 37   @ St. Mary's L 84-87 OT 39%     11 - 5 1 - 1 +11.3 +8.4 +3.2
  Jan 11, 2020 277   Portland W 96-70 96%     12 - 5 2 - 1 +16.8 +18.4 -2.0
  Jan 16, 2020 192   San Diego W 93-70 93%     13 - 5 3 - 1 +18.3 +14.1 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2020 3   @ Gonzaga L 69-92 16%     13 - 6 3 - 2 -0.9 +1.0 -0.6
  Jan 23, 2020 159   @ Pacific W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 25, 2020 104   @ San Francisco W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 30, 2020 147   Pepperdine W 86-73 89%    
  Feb 01, 2020 37   St. Mary's W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 06, 2020 277   @ Portland W 79-64 92%    
  Feb 08, 2020 104   San Francisco W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 13, 2020 197   @ Loyola Marymount W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 192   @ San Diego W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 20, 2020 140   Santa Clara W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 22, 2020 3   Gonzaga L 77-82 33%    
  Feb 29, 2020 147   @ Pepperdine W 83-76 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 15.2 23.3 14.7 1.7 58.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 10.0 9.4 1.9 24.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.5 0.2 7.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 7.8 15.9 24.8 25.6 17.0 4.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 64.2% 3.1    1.2 1.9
13-3 13.8% 2.3    0.4 1.7 0.3
12-4 1.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.6 3.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 4.8% 97.4% 27.3% 70.1% 5.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.5%
13-3 17.0% 87.5% 20.5% 66.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 1.5 0.1 2.1 84.3%
12-4 25.6% 69.9% 16.3% 53.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.0 6.2 0.7 7.7 64.0%
11-5 24.8% 47.8% 12.4% 35.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.6 1.4 0.0 13.0 40.4%
10-6 15.9% 30.0% 10.1% 19.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 11.1 22.1%
9-7 7.8% 15.6% 6.8% 8.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 6.6 9.4%
8-8 3.0% 8.8% 5.3% 3.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 3.8%
7-9 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-10 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 55.6% 14.4% 41.2% 9.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.5 4.7 7.4 10.9 18.2 3.7 0.0 44.4 48.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 2.8 13.7 25.8 32.8 20.4 6.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 98.5% 5.5 0.2 2.4 6.4 19.2 23.4 21.2 13.6 7.5 4.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 95.0% 6.2 0.4 0.2 3.6 9.2 21.8 18.2 20.0 11.8 8.0 0.8 1.2