Butler
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#12
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#6
Pace62.3#333
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#28
First Shot+7.4#14
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#243
Layup/Dunks+6.0#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#104
Freethrows-0.4#197
Improvement-0.2#189

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#16
First Shot+7.1#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#72
Layups/Dunks+1.5#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#94
Freethrows+1.6#84
Improvement+0.0#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.7% 3.5% 1.0%
#1 Seed 15.2% 18.9% 7.6%
Top 2 Seed 38.4% 45.4% 24.2%
Top 4 Seed 76.5% 82.6% 64.1%
Top 6 Seed 93.0% 95.9% 86.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.8% 98.9%
Average Seed 3.4 3.0 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.9% 89.6%
Conference Champion 25.2% 30.5% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Round99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
Second Round84.0% 86.6% 78.6%
Sweet Sixteen50.5% 53.5% 44.3%
Elite Eight25.4% 27.7% 20.8%
Final Four11.8% 13.2% 8.9%
Championship Game5.3% 6.0% 3.9%
National Champion2.2% 2.6% 1.3%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 29 - 7
Quad 29 - 118 - 8
Quad 32 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 309   IUPUI W 80-47 99%     1 - 0 +20.9 +9.5 +15.9
  Nov 09, 2019 306   New Orleans W 79-53 99%     2 - 0 +14.2 +7.0 +10.0
  Nov 12, 2019 35   Minnesota W 64-56 73%     3 - 0 +16.7 -3.5 +20.6
  Nov 16, 2019 138   Wofford W 80-61 93%     4 - 0 +17.9 +7.8 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2019 290   Morehead St. W 68-50 98%     5 - 0 +7.7 -3.8 +13.3
  Nov 25, 2019 66   Missouri W 63-52 75%     6 - 0 +19.0 +9.6 +11.9
  Nov 26, 2019 41   Stanford W 68-67 66%     7 - 0 +11.9 +13.6 -1.6
  Dec 03, 2019 101   @ Mississippi W 67-58 76%     8 - 0 +16.6 +3.7 +13.8
  Dec 07, 2019 26   Florida W 76-62 69%     9 - 0 +23.9 +13.1 +11.8
  Dec 10, 2019 5   @ Baylor L 52-53 30%     9 - 1 +19.5 -1.7 +21.1
  Dec 14, 2019 335   Southern W 66-41 99%     10 - 1 +10.6 -9.2 +21.6
  Dec 21, 2019 17   Purdue W 70-61 54%     11 - 1 +23.0 +12.6 +11.2
  Dec 28, 2019 245   Louisiana Monroe W 67-36 97%     12 - 1 +23.3 -8.5 +32.6
  Dec 31, 2019 78   @ St. John's W 60-58 69%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +11.8 -4.0 +15.9
  Jan 04, 2020 31   Creighton W 71-57 72%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +23.0 +1.2 +21.8
  Jan 10, 2020 67   @ Providence W 70-58 66%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +22.9 +11.0 +13.0
  Jan 15, 2020 9   Seton Hall L 70-78 58%     15 - 2 3 - 1 +5.0 +6.6 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2020 73   @ DePaul W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 21, 2020 23   @ Villanova L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 24, 2020 27   Marquette W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 28, 2020 44   @ Georgetown W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 01, 2020 67   Providence W 69-59 83%    
  Feb 05, 2020 23   Villanova W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 09, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 12, 2020 53   Xavier W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 15, 2020 44   Georgetown W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 19, 2020 9   @ Seton Hall L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 23, 2020 31   @ Creighton W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 73   DePaul W 72-61 84%    
  Mar 04, 2020 78   St. John's W 72-61 85%    
  Mar 07, 2020 53   @ Xavier W 66-63 60%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.3 8.2 6.5 2.8 0.6 25.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.2 10.7 11.2 5.8 1.4 0.2 34.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.5 8.5 5.8 1.4 0.1 19.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.0 10.9 16.2 18.6 17.9 14.1 7.9 2.9 0.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 94.5% 2.8    2.5 0.3
15-3 81.8% 6.5    5.0 1.5 0.0
14-4 58.2% 8.2    4.8 3.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 29.7% 5.3    1.9 2.6 0.8 0.1
12-6 9.0% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 15.0 8.3 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.9% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.5 4.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.1% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.9 4.7 6.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.9% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.4 2.6 7.3 6.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.6% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.1 0.7 4.0 7.8 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.2% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 4.0 0.1 0.9 4.5 5.7 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.9% 99.9% 14.9% 85.0% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 6.0% 99.9% 12.4% 87.4% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 3.2% 98.8% 8.7% 90.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
7-11 1.2% 90.6% 5.7% 84.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 90.0%
6-12 0.4% 64.1% 3.1% 60.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.9%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 23.1% 76.6% 3.4 15.2 23.2 22.4 15.8 10.2 6.3 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 68.3 28.6 3.2