Butler
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#38
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#38
Pace64.1#312
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#43
First Shot+3.4#79
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#68
Layup/Dunks+7.9#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#325
Freethrows-0.3#190
Improvement-0.9#305

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#48
First Shot+7.8#10
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#285
Layups/Dunks+2.0#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#8
Freethrows+2.3#65
Improvement+1.0#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 4.9% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.3% 15.8% 4.6%
Top 6 Seed 29.4% 30.3% 12.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.4% 62.6% 38.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.7% 58.9% 35.5%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 82.6% 83.9% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 62.0% 43.6%
Conference Champion 10.3% 10.6% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 6.5% 13.0%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.3%
First Round59.5% 60.8% 36.6%
Second Round37.1% 38.0% 19.5%
Sweet Sixteen15.8% 16.3% 7.2%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.8% 2.4%
Final Four2.7% 2.8% 0.8%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 014 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 264   IUPUI W 80-47 96%     1 - 0 +24.5 +12.5 +16.5
  Nov 09, 2019 259   New Orleans W 79-53 96%     2 - 0 +17.7 +10.7 +9.8
  Nov 12, 2019 73   Minnesota W 64-56 76%     3 - 0 +12.1 -2.8 +15.3
  Nov 16, 2019 126   Wofford W 80-61 87%     4 - 0 +18.4 +6.4 +12.9
  Nov 22, 2019 211   Morehead St. W 77-60 95%    
  Nov 25, 2019 42   Missouri W 65-64 52%    
  Dec 03, 2019 47   @ Mississippi L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 07, 2019 34   Florida W 63-60 60%    
  Dec 10, 2019 16   @ Baylor L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 14, 2019 344   Southern W 78-50 99.5%   
  Dec 21, 2019 17   Purdue L 64-66 41%    
  Dec 28, 2019 235   Louisiana Monroe W 76-57 95%    
  Dec 31, 2019 84   @ St. John's W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 04, 2020 44   Creighton W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 10, 2020 33   @ Providence L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 15, 2020 15   Seton Hall L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 18, 2020 76   @ DePaul W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 21, 2020 14   @ Villanova L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 24, 2020 26   Marquette W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 28, 2020 77   @ Georgetown W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 01, 2020 33   Providence W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 05, 2020 14   Villanova L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 09, 2020 26   @ Marquette L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 12, 2020 30   Xavier W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2020 77   Georgetown W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 19, 2020 15   @ Seton Hall L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 23, 2020 44   @ Creighton L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 29, 2020 76   DePaul W 74-66 74%    
  Mar 04, 2020 84   St. John's W 77-69 77%    
  Mar 07, 2020 30   @ Xavier L 65-69 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 6.0 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.3 9.6 11.6 12.7 12.5 11.0 9.3 6.9 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 97.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 89.0% 2.2    1.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 65.8% 3.0    1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 33.5% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
12-6 11.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.1 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 56.9% 43.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 2.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 3.4 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.9% 99.8% 19.1% 80.8% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 9.3% 99.0% 14.3% 84.7% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 11.0% 96.0% 10.9% 85.0% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 95.5%
10-8 12.5% 86.9% 7.6% 79.4% 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 85.9%
9-9 12.7% 69.3% 5.7% 63.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 67.5%
8-10 11.6% 39.8% 3.1% 36.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 37.8%
7-11 9.6% 15.0% 2.2% 12.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.2 13.1%
6-12 7.3% 3.6% 0.8% 2.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 2.8%
5-13 5.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.6%
4-14 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.1%
3-15 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.4% 8.7% 52.6% 6.6 1.7 3.0 4.9 5.7 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 38.6 57.7%