Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#171
Pace73.2#79
Improvement-4.7#334

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#220
First Shot-1.2#215
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#199
Layup/Dunks-0.3#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#123
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement-1.9#275

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#247
First Shot-3.6#297
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#95
Layups/Dunks+3.2#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows-5.3#352
Improvement-2.8#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 82.2% 86.8% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 85.5% 60.2%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round3.0% 3.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 414 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 338   Alabama A&M W 106-66 85%     1 - 0 +24.7 +16.1 +4.8
  Nov 09, 2019 165   @ Chattanooga L 57-59 24%     1 - 1 +1.2 -14.7 +15.9
  Nov 12, 2019 265   Lipscomb W 79-78 67%     2 - 1 -7.8 -3.0 -4.8
  Nov 21, 2019 24   @ Texas Tech L 57-72 4%     2 - 2 +1.1 -6.3 +7.8
  Nov 25, 2019 13   @ San Diego St. L 49-62 3%     2 - 3 +4.7 -11.3 +15.3
  Nov 28, 2019 316   Cal Poly W 82-72 70%     3 - 3 +0.5 -0.5 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2019 168   North Florida W 81-73 35%     4 - 3 +7.9 -0.1 +7.6
  Dec 06, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 80-74 96%     5 - 3 -18.1 -9.6 -8.8
  Dec 10, 2019 161   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 62-86 24%     5 - 4 -20.7 -11.6 -7.4
  Dec 15, 2019 260   @ Fordham W 66-61 44%     6 - 4 +2.4 +4.1 -1.2
  Dec 18, 2019 115   @ Indiana St. L 72-78 16%     6 - 5 +0.7 -3.4 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2020 226   Eastern Illinois W 84-79 60%     7 - 5 1 - 0 -1.7 +6.0 -7.8
  Jan 04, 2020 336   SIU Edwardsville W 79-74 85%     8 - 5 2 - 0 -10.2 -6.4 -4.1
  Jan 09, 2020 297   @ Tennessee Martin L 74-87 54%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -18.0 -13.4 -3.6
  Jan 11, 2020 331   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 75-73 64%     9 - 6 3 - 1 -5.8 -2.0 -3.9
  Jan 16, 2020 290   Morehead St. W 64-48 72%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +5.7 -5.7 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2020 323   Eastern Kentucky W 82-73 80%    
  Jan 23, 2020 172   @ Austin Peay L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 25, 2020 124   @ Murray St. L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 30, 2020 235   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 339   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 06, 2020 172   Austin Peay L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 08, 2020 124   Murray St. L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 13, 2020 88   @ Belmont L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 15, 2020 339   Tennessee Tech W 74-63 86%    
  Feb 20, 2020 323   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 290   @ Morehead St. W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 27, 2020 235   Jacksonville St. W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 88   Belmont L 73-80 26%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.7 0.2 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.1 3.4 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 8.1 11.3 4.4 0.3 25.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.5 9.4 3.1 0.2 20.1 5th
6th 0.3 4.2 7.2 2.7 0.2 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.2 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.6 11.5 17.5 20.9 18.2 13.0 7.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 33.1% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 38.5% 38.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.9% 15.3% 15.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
13-5 7.0% 9.0% 9.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.4
12-6 13.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.2
11-7 18.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 17.6
10-8 20.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 20.6
9-9 17.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 17.4
8-10 11.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.4
7-11 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.0 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%