Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#244
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#214
Pace72.6#102
Improvement-0.7#262

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#226
First Shot+0.6#151
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#285
Layup/Dunks+2.1#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#76
Freethrows-4.5#338
Improvement+0.0#156

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#258
First Shot-4.6#303
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#75
Layups/Dunks+1.5#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#240
Freethrows-1.7#266
Improvement-0.8#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 5.3% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 40.1% 76.6% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 75.9% 48.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 4.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.5% 6.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.3% 5.3% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 351   Alabama A&M W 106-66 94%     1 - 0 +18.3 +14.5 +0.0
  Nov 09, 2019 226   @ Chattanooga L 57-59 35%     1 - 1 -2.5 -14.9 +12.4
  Nov 12, 2019 211   Lipscomb W 79-78 55%     2 - 1 -4.7 +1.7 -6.4
  Nov 21, 2019 11   @ Texas Tech L 60-84 1%    
  Nov 25, 2019 43   @ San Diego St. L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 28, 2019 315   Cal Poly W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 06, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 87-68 96%    
  Dec 10, 2019 156   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 15, 2019 228   @ Fordham L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 18, 2019 167   @ Indiana St. L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 02, 2020 188   Eastern Illinois W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 04, 2020 328   SIU Edwardsville W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 09, 2020 289   @ Tennessee Martin L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 11, 2020 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 16, 2020 213   Morehead St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2020 267   Eastern Kentucky W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 23, 2020 238   @ Austin Peay L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 113   @ Murray St. L 70-81 17%    
  Jan 30, 2020 224   @ Jacksonville St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 01, 2020 322   @ Tennessee Tech W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 06, 2020 238   Austin Peay W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 113   Murray St. L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 13, 2020 59   @ Belmont L 72-88 8%    
  Feb 15, 2020 322   Tennessee Tech W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 20, 2020 267   @ Eastern Kentucky L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 22, 2020 213   @ Morehead St. L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 27, 2020 224   Jacksonville St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 59   Belmont L 75-85 19%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 1.9 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.4 9.8 11.8 12.7 12.6 11.9 9.2 6.8 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 84.9% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 47.9% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 18.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 52.7% 52.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 29.0% 29.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 23.6% 23.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.4% 14.9% 14.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
13-5 4.4% 10.2% 10.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.9
12-6 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.4
11-7 9.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.0
10-8 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.6
9-9 12.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.1 0.1 12.5
8-10 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 12.6
7-11 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 9.8% 9.8
5-13 7.4% 7.4
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 97.6 0.0%