Chattanooga
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#162
Pace69.4#193
Improvement+0.5#114

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#242
First Shot-5.4#307
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#45
Layup/Dunks-2.5#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
Freethrows-1.1#239
Improvement+0.4#110

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#202
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#238
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#108
Freethrows+1.0#139
Improvement+0.1#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 3.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 27.5% 57.0% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.2% 46.3% 29.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 4.1% 8.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.2% 3.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 33 - 53 - 13
Quad 49 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 267   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-79 46%     0 - 1 -13.6 -15.5 +3.5
  Nov 09, 2019 244   Tennessee St. W 59-57 65%     1 - 1 -5.3 -17.4 +12.0
  Nov 12, 2019 295   @ Troy W 74-68 54%     2 - 1 +1.5 -3.1 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2019 163   South Alabama W 90-72 48%     3 - 1 +14.9 +12.7 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2019 20   @ Florida St. L 53-89 4%     3 - 2 -19.4 -11.8 -6.9
  Nov 25, 2019 17   @ Tennessee L 61-81 3%    
  Nov 29, 2019 324   Alabama St. W 71-64 75%    
  Dec 03, 2019 159   @ Western Carolina L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 11, 2019 57   @ Virginia Tech L 58-74 7%    
  Dec 15, 2019 295   Troy W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 21, 2019 278   @ UNC Asheville L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 04, 2020 218   @ Mercer L 76-79 37%    
  Jan 08, 2020 65   Furman L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 11, 2020 189   Samford W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 15, 2020 125   Wofford L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 18, 2020 90   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-72 14%    
  Jan 22, 2020 312   The Citadel W 84-75 78%    
  Jan 25, 2020 71   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-77 11%    
  Jan 29, 2020 189   @ Samford L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 01, 2020 159   Western Carolina L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 05, 2020 71   East Tennessee St. L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 08, 2020 125   @ Wofford L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 12, 2020 321   VMI W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 65   @ Furman L 61-76 10%    
  Feb 19, 2020 312   @ The Citadel W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 218   Mercer W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 26, 2020 321   @ VMI W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 90   UNC Greensboro L 63-69 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.9 6.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.4 7.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 19.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.9 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 19.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.2 5.0 8.3 11.5 13.8 14.8 13.5 11.3 8.3 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 65.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 7.3% 7.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 12.3% 12.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-6 3.0% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-7 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
10-8 8.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-9 11.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.2
8-10 13.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4
7-11 14.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
4-14 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
3-15 5.0% 5.0
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.7 0.0%