UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#261
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#320
Pace74.2#66
Improvement+1.6#120

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#267
First Shot-2.9#274
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks-3.5#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#283
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement+4.0#17

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#238
First Shot-1.1#197
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#284
Layups/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#8
Freethrows-5.3#350
Improvement-2.4#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.4% 58.0% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.0% 4.3% 2.7%
First Round2.0% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 47 - 68 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 144   @ South Dakota St. L 57-70 18%     0 - 1 -8.8 -19.4 +11.0
  Nov 15, 2019 149   North Dakota St. L 70-76 27%     0 - 2 -5.0 -4.9 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2019 136   Stony Brook L 58-69 24%     0 - 3 -9.1 -9.8 +0.2
  Nov 17, 2019 294   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 55-63 47%     0 - 4 -12.8 -7.5 -6.7
  Nov 30, 2019 294   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 52-55 68%     0 - 5 -13.5 -24.0 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. W 90-86 2OT 43%     1 - 5 +0.3 -7.3 +6.5
  Dec 13, 2019 33   @ Creighton L 58-89 4%     1 - 6 -16.4 -14.1 -0.1
  Dec 15, 2019 213   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-92 31%     1 - 7 -10.2 -1.9 -7.3
  Dec 21, 2019 17   @ Texas Tech L 58-68 3%     1 - 8 +6.9 -2.4 +9.2
  Dec 30, 2019 47   @ Oklahoma L 72-91 5%     1 - 9 -5.8 -4.6 +1.6
  Jan 02, 2020 184   @ California Baptist L 67-76 24%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -7.0 -8.7 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2020 245   UMKC W 76-64 58%     2 - 10 1 - 1 +4.4 +8.3 -2.5
  Jan 11, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 87-63 95%     3 - 10 2 - 1 -0.1 -3.0 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2020 198   @ Seattle L 74-91 29%     3 - 11 2 - 2 -16.6 +0.2 -16.3
  Jan 18, 2020 276   @ Utah Valley L 70-72 42%     3 - 12 2 - 3 -5.5 -2.2 -3.4
  Jan 25, 2020 94   New Mexico St. L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 30, 2020 215   Grand Canyon W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 01, 2020 216   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 06, 2020 245   @ UMKC L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 13, 2020 276   Utah Valley W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 15, 2020 198   Seattle L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 22, 2020 94   @ New Mexico St. L 61-75 10%    
  Feb 27, 2020 216   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 215   @ Grand Canyon L 69-74 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 184   California Baptist L 75-77 43%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.5 6.6 4.9 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 6.6 8.2 0.9 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 5.8 10.9 1.9 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.6 10.7 3.5 0.1 20.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 6.2 8.4 3.7 0.2 20.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.9 14.4 20.6 21.7 17.5 10.5 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 32.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.3% 17.7% 17.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.6% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4
10-6 4.5% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.4 4.1
9-7 10.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.6 9.9
8-8 17.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.7 16.8
7-9 21.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.7 21.0
6-10 20.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 20.2
5-11 14.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.3
4-12 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.8
3-13 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%