Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
77 North Texas 100.0%   13   16 - 9 9 - 5 16 - 9 9 - 5 +7.7      +2.4 113 +5.2 48 60.0 338 +6.9 85 +5.6 4
78 Louisiana Tech 1.8%   20 - 7 12 - 4 20 - 7 12 - 4 +7.6      +1.1 139 +6.5 27 71.6 115 +7.5 77 +9.4 1
88 Western Kentucky 7.2%   20 - 7 11 - 3 20 - 7 11 - 3 +6.3      +2.1 116 +4.2 68 68.6 187 +9.5 59 +6.2 3
90 Marshall 0.4%   15 - 7 9 - 5 15 - 7 9 - 5 +5.8      +4.8 62 +1.0 144 79.1 17 +5.5 100 +5.0 6
93 UAB 0.1%   20 - 7 13 - 5 20 - 7 13 - 5 +5.6      +1.1 141 +4.6 63 67.1 225 +5.6 98 +6.6 2
138 UTEP 0.0%   9 - 12 8 - 8 9 - 12 8 - 8 +1.8      +0.5 161 +1.3 132 67.6 212 +0.1 162 -0.1 9
140 Old Dominion 0.0%   14 - 8 11 - 5 14 - 8 11 - 5 +1.2      -0.7 193 +1.9 116 67.3 220 +5.0 109 +5.3 5
146 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   11 - 11 9 - 7 11 - 11 9 - 7 +1.0      +3.6 91 -2.6 244 76.7 32 +0.7 153 +2.2 7
163 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   9 - 10 7 - 5 9 - 10 7 - 5 +0.3      +0.4 164 -0.1 175 69.2 176 -2.5 200 -1.2 10
186 Rice 0.0%   12 - 13 6 - 10 12 - 13 6 - 10 -1.7      +1.0 144 -2.7 247 71.8 105 +0.1 163 +0.4 8
221 Charlotte 0.0%   9 - 15 5 - 11 9 - 15 5 - 11 -4.2      -3.2 251 -0.9 200 59.5 341 -3.8 221 -4.0 11
240 Southern Miss 0.0%   6 - 17 4 - 13 6 - 17 4 - 13 -5.0      -6.2 304 +1.2 140 67.2 222 -7.4 275 -6.8 12
292 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   4 - 18 3 - 13 4 - 18 3 - 13 -8.6      -7.0 310 -1.6 214 71.7 109 -9.6 307 -9.4 13
295 Florida International 0.0%   5 - 17 2 - 15 5 - 17 2 - 15 -8.6      -3.8 267 -4.9 297 73.6 80 -8.9 296 -11.6 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
North Texas 5.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 2.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 3.0 100.0
Marshall 5.0 100.0
UAB 1.0 100.0
UTEP 8.0 100.0
Old Dominion 3.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 5.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 9.0 100.0
Rice 10.0 100.0
Charlotte 11.0 100.0
Southern Miss 12.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 13.0 100.0
Florida International 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
North Texas 9 - 9 100.0
Louisiana Tech 12 - 6 100.0
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 100.0
Marshall 9 - 9 100.0
UAB 13 - 5 100.0
UTEP 8 - 10 100.0
Old Dominion 11 - 7 100.0
Texas San Antonio 9 - 9 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7 - 11 100.0
Rice 6 - 12 100.0
Charlotte 5 - 13 100.0
Southern Miss 4 - 14 100.0
Middle Tennessee 3 - 15 100.0
Florida International 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky
Marshall
UAB 100.0% 100.0
UTEP
Old Dominion
Texas San Antonio
Florida Atlantic
Rice
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Middle Tennessee
Florida International


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Texas 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.3 20.3 72.9 6.5
Louisiana Tech 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1 1.4 0.2 98.2 1.8%
Western Kentucky 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0 0.9 5.7 0.6 92.8 7.2%
Marshall 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 99.7 0.4%
UAB 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Texas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.1% 7.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 7.2% 7.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.1 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
2nd Round 24.7% 0.2 75.3 24.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0