IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+18.1	#2
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.8	#284
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.4	#6

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.7	#4

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	8.6%	10.7%	4.3%
#1 Seed	26.2%	32.1%	14.1%
Top 2 Seed	42.5%	50.4%	26.5%
Top 4 Seed	64.2%	72.0%	48.3%
Top 6 Seed	76.6%	83.3%	63.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	90.0%	94.2%	81.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	86.6%	91.9%	77.1%
Average Seed	3.6	3.2	4.5

.500 or above	92.0%	95.7%	84.6%
.500 or above in Conference	89.2%	92.0%	83.5%
Conference Champion	34.0%	38.4%	24.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.5%	1.5%

First Four	2.4%	1.8%	3.7%
First Round	89.0%	93.5%	79.8%
Second Round	76.7%	82.4%	65.2%
Sweet Sixteen	52.9%	58.8%	40.8%
Elite Eight	33.5%	38.3%	23.8%
Final Four	20.0%	23.4%	13.2%
Championship Game	12.2%	14.5%	7.5%
National Champion	6.8%	8.3%	3.8%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 5	5 - 5
Quad 1b	4 - 2	9 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 1	14 - 8
Quad 3	3 - 0	17 - 8
Quad 4	3 - 0	20 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	25	Arizona St.	W	79-74	67%
Nov 29, 2020	44	@ Seton Hall	W	75-70	66%
Dec 02, 2020	13	Illinois	W	70-67	60%
Dec 05, 2020	1	Gonzaga	L	76-77	46%
Dec 08, 2020	234	Nicholls St.	W	85-59	99%
Dec 13, 2020	15	Texas	W	70-64	71%
Dec 19, 2020	89	@ Kansas St.	W	71-62	78%
Dec 21, 2020	338	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	83-47	99.9%
Dec 29, 2020	285	Central Arkansas	W	91-63	99%
Jan 02, 2021	71	@ Iowa St.	W	77-70	73%
Jan 06, 2021	29	Oklahoma	W	76-67	78%
Jan 09, 2021	69	@ TCU	W	69-62	73%
Jan 12, 2021	7	West Virginia	W	74-69	68%
Jan 16, 2021	14	@ Texas Tech	W	69-68	51%
Jan 18, 2021	4	Kansas	W	71-67	63%
Jan 23, 2021	42	@ Oklahoma St.	W	73-68	65%
Jan 27, 2021	89	Kansas St.	W	74-59	89%
Jan 30, 2021	60	Auburn	W	78-66	84%
Feb 02, 2021	15	@ Texas	W	67-66	51%
Feb 06, 2021	69	TCU	W	72-59	86%
Feb 10, 2021	29	@ Oklahoma	W	73-70	60%
Feb 13, 2021	14	Texas Tech	W	72-66	70%
Feb 15, 2021	7	@ West Virginia	L	71-72	48%
Feb 20, 2021	42	Oklahoma St.	W	76-65	81%
Feb 23, 2021	71	Iowa St.	W	80-67	86%
Feb 27, 2021	4	@ Kansas	L	68-70	44%
Projected Record						19 - 7	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.9	3.1	7.0	8.7	7.6	4.8	1.9		34.0	1st
2nd											0.1	1.3	4.4	6.8	5.4	2.2	0.4				20.5	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.5	4.4	5.4	2.8	0.7	0.0					15.0	3rd
4th									0.1	1.3	3.9	3.8	1.5	0.2							10.8	4th
5th								0.1	0.9	2.8	2.8	0.8	0.1								7.5	5th
6th							0.1	0.7	2.2	1.9	0.5	0.0									5.4	6th
7th						0.1	0.6	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0										3.1	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1												2.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.0													1.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.4	10th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.9	2.8	4.3	6.3	8.8	10.4	12.3	12.8	13.1	11.0	7.9	4.8	1.9			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.9		1.9
17-1	100.0%	4.8		4.7	0.1
16-2	95.4%	7.6		6.6	1.0	0.0
15-3	79.6%	8.7		6.5	2.1	0.1
14-4	53.6%	7.0		3.7	2.8	0.6	0.0
13-5	23.9%	3.1		0.9	1.4	0.7	0.1
12-6	7.0%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	34.0%	34.0		24.5	7.6	1.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.9%		100.0%	64.9%	35.1%	1.0		1.8	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	4.8%		100.0%	61.8%	38.2%	1.1		4.3	0.5	0.0	0.0															100.0%
16-2	7.9%		100.0%	52.4%	47.6%	1.3		6.1	1.7	0.2	0.0	0.0														100.0%
15-3	11.0%		100.0%	39.6%	60.4%	1.5		6.7	3.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0													100.0%
14-4	13.1%		100.0%	31.8%	68.2%	2.0		4.7	5.0	2.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0												100.0%
13-5	12.8%		100.0%	24.7%	75.3%	2.9		2.0	3.6	3.7	2.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
12-6	12.3%		99.9%	18.4%	81.4%	3.8		0.6	1.7	3.3	2.9	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.8%
11-7	10.4%		98.9%	14.8%	84.0%	5.2		0.1	0.5	1.7	1.9	2.1	1.8	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1		98.7%
10-8	8.8%		94.1%	10.2%	83.9%	6.7		0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.4	1.3	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5		93.4%
9-9	6.3%		78.8%	6.6%	72.2%	8.4			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0			1.3		77.3%
8-10	4.3%		48.8%	4.8%	44.0%	10.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.2		46.2%
7-11	2.8%		19.5%	2.7%	16.8%	11.3							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.2		17.3%
6-12	1.9%		6.8%	1.8%	5.0%	12.6											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8		5.1%
5-13	1.0%		1.0%		1.0%	12.1													0.0	0.0				1.0		1.0%
4-14	0.4%																							0.4
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		90.0%	25.5%	64.5%	3.6		26.2	16.3	12.6	9.1	7.0	5.4	3.8	2.5	2.1	1.3	1.2	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.0		86.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	1.0	99.7	0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	88.8	11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0