Preseason Rankings
Illinois
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#272
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 9.3% 9.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 18.9% 19.0% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 37.7% 37.8% 9.1%
Top 6 Seed 52.9% 53.1% 14.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.2% 74.4% 34.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.8% 71.0% 34.2%
Average Seed 5.0 5.0 6.9
.500 or above 80.9% 81.1% 36.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 78.3% 40.5%
Conference Champion 16.4% 16.5% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.5% 6.9%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 3.4%
First Round72.6% 72.8% 32.5%
Second Round54.8% 54.9% 21.8%
Sweet Sixteen32.5% 32.6% 17.5%
Elite Eight18.0% 18.1% 10.1%
Final Four9.4% 9.4% 4.8%
Championship Game4.9% 4.9% 1.6%
National Champion2.5% 2.5% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 43 - 018 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 309   N.C. A&T W 88-61 99%    
  Nov 26, 2020 345   Chicago St. W 82-46 100.0%   
  Nov 27, 2020 134   Ohio W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 02, 2020 2   Baylor L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 08, 2020 5   @ Duke L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 12, 2020 66   @ Missouri W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 15, 2020 37   Minnesota W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 20, 2020 33   @ Rutgers W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 23, 2020 62   @ Penn St. W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 26, 2020 24   Indiana W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 02, 2021 28   Purdue W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 07, 2021 80   @ Northwestern W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 10, 2021 39   Maryland W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 13, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 16, 2021 17   Ohio St. W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 20, 2021 62   Penn St. W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 23, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 29, 2021 9   Iowa W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 02, 2021 24   @ Indiana L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 8   Wisconsin W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 11, 2021 19   @ Michigan L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 16, 2021 80   Northwestern W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 20, 2021 37   @ Minnesota W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 24, 2021 113   Nebraska W 83-69 87%    
  Feb 27, 2021 8   @ Wisconsin L 63-67 38%    
  Mar 06, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.2 4.3 2.9 1.3 0.5 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 4.6 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 5.5 7.0 9.0 10.2 10.9 10.7 10.4 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.2% 1.3    1.2 0.1
18-2 95.6% 2.9    2.6 0.3
17-3 79.3% 4.3    3.1 1.1 0.1
16-4 55.6% 4.2    2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.0% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
14-6 7.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 10.6 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 50.6% 49.4% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.0% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.4% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.7 2.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.2 2.1 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.1 0.8 2.3 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 99.9% 13.7% 86.2% 4.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.7% 99.4% 11.0% 88.4% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 10.9% 96.7% 6.9% 89.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.5%
11-9 10.2% 84.5% 3.5% 81.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 84.0%
10-10 9.0% 55.8% 2.4% 53.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 54.7%
9-11 7.0% 24.1% 1.6% 22.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 22.9%
8-12 5.5% 6.4% 1.3% 5.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1 5.1%
7-13 3.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.5%
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.2% 11.5% 62.7% 5.0 9.3 9.6 10.5 8.3 7.9 7.3 5.3 4.4 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 25.8 70.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.6 18.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0