Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#201
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 12.6% 12.7% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 27.4% 27.6% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 39.9% 40.2% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.1% 60.5% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.0% 57.4% 18.9%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 7.4
.500 or above 64.6% 65.0% 22.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 59.3% 26.0%
Conference Champion 7.8% 7.8% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.1% 13.8%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.4%
First Round58.0% 58.4% 17.9%
Second Round42.4% 42.7% 13.0%
Sweet Sixteen24.0% 24.2% 8.1%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.3% 2.9%
Final Four6.1% 6.1% 1.1%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 0.1%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 32 - 013 - 12
Quad 42 - 015 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 304   Tennessee Tech W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 30, 2020 41   Providence W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 09, 2020 16   @ Florida St. L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 13, 2020 277   North Alabama W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 19, 2020 51   Butler W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 23, 2020 80   Northwestern W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 26, 2020 13   @ Illinois L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 30, 2020 62   @ Penn St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 04, 2021 39   Maryland W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 07, 2021 8   @ Wisconsin L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 10, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 14, 2021 28   Purdue W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 17, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 21, 2021 9   @ Iowa L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 24, 2021 33   Rutgers W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 30, 2021 19   @ Michigan L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 02, 2021 13   Illinois W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 07, 2021 9   Iowa W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 10, 2021 80   @ Northwestern W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 13, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 17, 2021 37   Minnesota W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 10   Michigan St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 24, 2021 33   @ Rutgers L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 19   Michigan W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 06, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.1 1.2 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 1.6 0.2 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 3.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.2 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.4 9.1 9.6 10.3 10.4 9.4 8.3 7.2 5.3 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.7% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
17-3 81.5% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 54.2% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.9% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 64.3% 35.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.2 100.0%
16-4 4.1% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 1.8 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.3% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.2% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.3 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.3% 99.9% 11.9% 88.0% 4.4 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 9.4% 99.2% 5.9% 93.3% 5.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 10.4% 93.4% 3.3% 90.2% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 93.2%
10-10 10.3% 74.6% 2.4% 72.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.6 74.0%
9-11 9.6% 36.4% 1.9% 34.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.1 35.2%
8-12 9.1% 9.9% 1.0% 8.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 9.0%
7-13 7.4% 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 1.1%
6-14 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 60.1% 7.3% 52.9% 5.5 5.8 6.7 8.2 6.7 6.8 5.7 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 39.9 57.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0