IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#259
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.9	#279
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.3	#298

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.1%	6.2%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.8	15.5

.500 or above	45.5%	55.8%	28.9%
.500 or above in Conference	43.7%	50.4%	32.9%
Conference Champion	5.4%	6.9%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	13.8%	10.4%	19.2%

First Four	1.2%	1.1%	1.4%
First Round	4.4%	5.6%	2.4%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis Brooklyn (Neutral) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 6
Quad 4	10 - 7	12 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	310	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	74-71	62%
Nov 28, 2020	329	Binghamton	W	76-70	73%
Nov 29, 2020	329	Binghamton	W	76-70	72%
Dec 11, 2020	195	@ St. Peter's	L	65-72	27%
Dec 12, 2020	195	@ St. Peter's	L	65-72	28%
Dec 18, 2020	268	Fairfield	W	64-61	62%
Dec 19, 2020	268	Fairfield	W	64-61	61%
Dec 22, 2020	239	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	72-76	36%
Jan 01, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	70-75	34%
Jan 02, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	70-75	34%
Jan 08, 2021	273	Rider	W	76-72	62%
Jan 09, 2021	273	Rider	W	76-72	62%
Jan 22, 2021	284	@ Marist	L	64-66	44%
Jan 23, 2021	284	@ Marist	L	64-66	44%
Jan 29, 2021	149	Siena	L	69-73	38%
Jan 30, 2021	149	Siena	L	69-73	38%
Feb 05, 2021	288	@ Quinnipiac	L	71-73	44%
Feb 06, 2021	288	@ Quinnipiac	L	71-73	45%
Feb 12, 2021	176	Monmouth	L	74-76	44%
Feb 13, 2021	176	Monmouth	L	74-76	43%
Feb 19, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	L	64-67	39%
Feb 20, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	L	64-67	38%
Mar 05, 2021	221	Canisius	W	73-72	54%
Mar 06, 2021	221	Canisius	W	73-72	54%
Projected Record						11 - 13	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0		5.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	1.7	2.2	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0				6.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.8	2.8	1.3	0.3	0.0						8.3	3rd
4th										0.0	1.2	3.6	3.2	1.0	0.1	0.0							9.1	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.9	3.4	1.0	0.1									9.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	3.7	1.1	0.1										10.2	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	3.7	4.1	1.0	0.1											10.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.3	3.6	4.2	1.1	0.1												10.5	8th
9th				0.1	0.4	1.8	3.8	3.3	1.1	0.1													10.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	3.5	2.8	0.8	0.1														10.4	10th
11th	0.2	0.9	1.7	2.4	2.4	1.3	0.4	0.1															9.3	11th

Total	0.2	0.9	1.8	3.3	5.0	6.9	8.4	9.1	10.2	10.6	10.0	9.1	7.6	5.8	4.3	2.9	1.9	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	95.1%	0.5		0.4	0.1
17-3	91.9%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
16-4	67.7%	1.3		0.9	0.4	0.0
15-5	41.2%	1.2		0.5	0.6	0.1
14-6	17.5%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
13-7	3.8%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	5.4%	5.4		3.3	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		76.5%	52.9%	23.5%	7.3						0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0				0.0			0.0		50.0%
19-1	0.2%		49.1%	49.1%		12.3											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.5%		34.4%	34.4%		13.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3
17-3	1.3%		30.5%	30.5%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.9
16-4	1.9%		25.2%	25.2%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.4
15-5	2.9%		22.2%	22.2%		14.7														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	2.3
14-6	4.3%		14.5%	14.5%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	3.7
13-7	5.8%		12.5%	12.5%		15.4															0.0	0.3	0.4	5.0
12-8	7.6%		8.2%	8.2%		15.6															0.0	0.2	0.4	7.0
11-9	9.1%		5.3%	5.3%		15.8																0.1	0.4	8.6
10-10	10.0%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.7
9-11	10.6%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.2	10.3
8-12	10.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
7-13	9.1%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	9.1
6-14	8.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.3
5-15	6.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.9
4-16	5.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
3-17	3.3%																							3.3
2-18	1.8%																							1.8
1-19	0.9%																							0.9
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.1%	5.0%	0.0%	15.0						0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.5	2.2	94.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%