IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#251
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.8	#301
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.8	#317

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#163

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.9%	8.1%	3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.6	15.2

.500 or above	44.1%	58.1%	29.9%
.500 or above in Conference	47.3%	56.2%	38.2%
Conference Champion	5.8%	8.1%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	12.1%	8.3%	15.9%

First Four	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%
First Round	5.4%	7.5%	3.2%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 6
Quad 4	9 - 6	11 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 03, 2020	201	Fordham	W	59-58	50%
Dec 11, 2020	273	Rider	W	71-67	64%
Dec 12, 2020	273	Rider	W	71-67	64%
Dec 18, 2020	288	@ Quinnipiac	L	67-68	45%
Dec 19, 2020	288	@ Quinnipiac	L	67-68	45%
Jan 08, 2021	284	Marist	W	63-59	65%
Jan 09, 2021	284	Marist	W	63-59	65%
Jan 15, 2021	221	@ Canisius	L	66-70	35%
Jan 16, 2021	221	@ Canisius	L	66-70	35%
Jan 22, 2021	176	Monmouth	L	69-71	45%
Jan 23, 2021	176	Monmouth	L	69-71	45%
Jan 29, 2021	195	@ St. Peter's	L	60-66	30%
Jan 30, 2021	195	@ St. Peter's	L	60-66	29%
Feb 05, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	60-56	63%
Feb 06, 2021	268	Fairfield	W	60-56	62%
Feb 12, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	61-70	22%
Feb 13, 2021	149	@ Siena	L	61-70	22%
Feb 19, 2021	259	Niagara	W	67-64	61%
Feb 20, 2021	259	Niagara	W	67-64	62%
Mar 05, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	65-69	36%
Mar 06, 2021	222	@ Iona	L	65-69	35%
Projected Record						10 - 11	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.5	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0		5.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.7	2.1	2.4	1.8	0.7	0.1	0.0				7.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.9	3.3	1.4	0.4	0.0						9.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.4	3.6	1.3	0.2								9.5	4th
5th									0.0	1.2	4.1	3.6	1.1	0.1									10.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.2	3.8	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.0									10.1	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	4.1	4.0	1.0	0.1											10.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.2	3.9	3.8	1.1	0.1												10.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	3.4	1.2	0.1													10.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.9	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.1														8.8	10th
11th	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.2	2.3	1.1	0.3	0.1															8.1	11th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.8	4.6	6.0	7.1	9.4	10.4	10.3	10.2	9.2	8.4	6.9	4.8	3.5	2.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	94.6%	0.5		0.4	0.0
17-3	90.7%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
16-4	68.7%	1.5		0.9	0.6	0.0
15-5	37.7%	1.3		0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	16.9%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	5.8%	5.8		3.4	1.9	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		93.3%	93.3%		7.2						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0
19-1	0.2%		54.8%	54.3%	0.5%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.1		1.1%
18-2	0.5%		56.4%	56.2%	0.2%	13.1											0.0		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2		0.5%
17-3	1.4%		42.8%	42.2%	0.6%	13.6													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0		0.8		1.0%
16-4	2.2%		25.4%	25.4%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.6
15-5	3.5%		23.1%	23.1%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.0	2.7
14-6	4.8%		17.0%	17.0%		15.0															0.2	0.4	0.2	4.0
13-7	6.9%		13.4%	13.4%		15.3															0.1	0.4	0.4	6.0
12-8	8.4%		7.3%	7.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	7.7
11-9	9.2%		5.4%	5.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	8.7
10-10	10.2%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.9
9-11	10.3%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
8-12	10.4%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
7-13	9.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
6-14	7.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
5-15	6.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
4-16	4.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
3-17	2.8%																							2.8
2-18	1.4%																							1.4
1-19	0.6%																							0.6
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.9%	5.9%	0.0%	14.8						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.7	2.1	94.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.0					29.6	7.4	29.6		29.6	3.7
Lose Out	0.1%